Computing Opportunity Costs of Growing Local Varieties for On-farm Conservation: Illustrations Using Sorghum Data from Ethiopia

The recent shift of emphasis to on-farm conservation is driven by its diverse attractive features - participatory nature, dynamic nature, capacity to maintain not only crop diversity but the knowledge that evolves with it, the chance it offers and the challenge it brings to link conservation with farmers' livelihood. To make it operational, placing incentives and removal of perverse incentives are of critical importance. However, before placing sound incentives compatible to farmers' circumstances, the opportunity costs farmers face when using local varieties of public interest should be understood. This paper empirically examines farmers' opportunity costs of maintaining local varieties of sorghum using a household survey data collected from 198 sorghum growers in Eastern Ethiopia. Opportunity costs are generated using different homogeneous treatment statistical models and factors affecting them are further examined using switching regression model. The average opportunity costs suggest not only the size of policy incentive required for farmers to maintain local varieties of sorghum on-farm but also are useful to estimate the national costs of conserving crop genetic resources. The regression analysis shows that opportunity costs increase with access to output markets and extension, output price, access to input supply, experience in growing improved varieties, and relative importance of the crop. On the contrary, plot quality, input price and oxen ownership are reducing opportunity costs. The paper then concludes outlining the policy implications of the empirical findings to incentive design for on-farm conservation of crop genetic resources.Opportunity costs, incentive design, on-farm conservation, crop genetic resources, Ethiopia, Crop Production/Industries,

Does Participation in Microfinance Programs Improve Household Incomes: Empirical Evidence From Makueni District, Kenya

Although microfinance has elicited different reactions from different stakeholders, there seems to be a general agreement that it is useful in reducing poverty. This study is an attempt to contribute in to the debate on the impact of microfinance on household incomes. We use a pooled data set collected from the south western part of Makueni district in Kenya to study the households’ access to microfinance credit and how the credit affects their incomes. We control for household selection bias as well as endogenity problems in the sample. Cross sectional analysis fails to show any significant positive impact of microfinance on poverty reduction. Only after the inclusion of time dynamics in the study are we able to find a weak positive significance of microfinance on household incomes.household, incomes, Kenya, Makueni, Agricultural Finance, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Financial Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital, Marketing, Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Determinants for Use of Certified Maize Seed and the Relative Importance of Transaction Costs

The rising world prices for major tradable staples such as maize have been a concern for sub- Saharan countries such as Kenya which are maize deficit countries. Maize is a major staple food for over 80 percent of Kenya’s population. Kenya relies on maize for up to 40 percent of its dietary energy supply and is accordingly searching for ways to increase maize productivity. Maize productivity has been rising in the last decade manly as a result of the use of improved germplasm and fertilizer. However, the proportion of farmers using these technologies is low and the aggregate productivity in maize is low compared to other countries and its potential. Previous studies on input adoption have often assumed the existence of perfect supply and product markets, tending to ignore the important but significant role played by institutions as well as the role of transaction costs associated with market exchange. This study makes use of qualitative information from institutions and actors in seed input value chains as well as quantitative information collected from a sample of 150 farmers, in the Moist Transitional Maize Zones of Kenya. A two stage regression model was applied to analyze determinants of adoption and factors affecting degree of adoption of certified improved maize seed. The results show that as farmers adopt certified seeds, they incur higher transaction costs than non adopters, rural infrastructure, social capital such as membership in groups and trust play an important role in the decision of whether or not to use certified seed.Crop Production/Industries,

Risk of Injection-Site Abscess among Infants Receiving a Preservative-Free, Two-Dose Vial Formulation of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in Kenya.

There is a theoretical risk of adverse events following immunization with a preservative-free, 2-dose vial formulation of 10-valent-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10). We set out to measure this risk. Four population-based surveillance sites in Kenya (total annual birth cohort of 11,500 infants) were used to conduct a 2-year post-introduction vaccine safety study of PCV10. Injection-site abscesses occurring within 7 days following vaccine administration were clinically diagnosed in all study sites (passive facility-based surveillance) and, also, detected by caregiver-reported symptoms of swelling plus discharge in two sites (active household-based surveillance). Abscess risk was expressed as the number of abscesses per 100,000 injections and was compared for the second vs first vial dose of PCV10 and for PCV10 vs pentavalent vaccine (comparator). A total of 58,288 PCV10 injections were recorded, including 24,054 and 19,702 identified as first and second vial doses, respectively (14,532 unknown vial dose). The risk ratio for abscess following injection with the second (41 per 100,000) vs first (33 per 100,000) vial dose of PCV10 was 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.37-4.06). The comparator vaccine was changed from a 2-dose to 10-dose presentation midway through the study. The matched odds ratios for abscess following PCV10 were 1.00 (95% CI 0.12-8.56) and 0.27 (95% CI 0.14-0.54) when compared to the 2-dose and 10-dose pentavalent vaccine presentations, respectively. In Kenya immunization with PCV10 was not associated with an increased risk of injection site abscess, providing confidence that the vaccine may be safely used in Africa. The relatively higher risk of abscess following the 10-dose presentation of pentavalent vaccine merits further study

COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya

Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or when infection spreads to susceptible sub-populations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socio-economic and urban/rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya

Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data

Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.</ns4:p

Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data.

Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission

A Climate-Change Policy Induced Shift from Innovations in Energy Production to Energy Savings

We develop an endogenous growth model with capital, labor and energy as production factors and three productivity variables that measure accumulated innovations for energy production, energy savings, and neutral growth. All markets are complete and perfect, except for research, for which we assume that the marginal social value exceeds marginal costs by factor four. The model constants are calibrated so that the model reproduces the relevant trends over the 1970-2000 period. The model contains a simple climate module, and is used to assess the impact of Induced Technological Change (ITC) for a policy that aims at a maximum level of atmospheric CO2 concentration (450 ppmv). ITC is shown to reduce the required carbon tax by about a factor 2, and to reduce costs of such a policy by about factor 10. Numerical simulations show that knowledge accumulation shifts from energy production to energy saving technology

On Coalition Formation with Heterogeneous Agents

We propose a framework to analyze coalition formation with heterogeneous agents. Existing literature defines stability conditions that do not ensure that, once an agent decides to sign an agreement, the enlarged coalition is feasible. Defining the concepts of refraction and exchanging, we set up conditions of existence and enlargement of a coalition with heterogeneous agents. We use the concept of exchanging agents to give necessary conditions for internal stability and show that refraction is a sufficient condition for the failure of an enlargement of the coalition. With heterogeneous agents we can get a situation where a group of members of an unstable coalition does not deviate, neither within the coalition nor within the extended coalition. Hence, the possibilities of agreement are richer than in the standard analysis with homogeneous agents. Examples of industrial economics are used for illustration, and an application to climate change negotiations is discussed in more detail