If only it were true: the problem with the four conditionals

The traditional division of conditionals into four main types (zero, first, second, and third) has long been called into question. Unfortunately, the awareness that this description does not reflect conditional patterns in actual usage has not generally been reflected in EFL coursebooks. This article re-examines the arguments for a description of conditional patterns which reflects actual usage and uses corpus data to demonstrate the kind of patterns in frequent use. It then suggests two teaching approaches that may help teachers to tackle a variety of conditional patterns in the classroom

Approaches to Daily Monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak in Northern Italy

Italy was the first European country affected by the Sars-Cov-2 pandemic, with the first autochthonous case identified on Feb 21st. Specific control measures restricting social contacts were introduced by the Italian government starting from the beginning of March. In the current study we analyzed public data from the four most affected Italian regions. We (i) estimated the time-varying reproduction number (Rt), the average number of secondary cases that each infected individual would infect at time t, to monitor the positive impact of restriction measures; (ii) applied the generalized logistic and the modified Richards models to describe the epidemic pattern and obtain short-term forecasts. We observed a monotonic decrease of Rt over time in all regions, and the peak of incident cases ~2 weeks after the implementation of the first strict containment measures. Our results show that phenomenological approaches may be useful to monitor the epidemic growth in its initial phases and suggest that costly and disruptive public health controls might have had a positive impact in limiting the Sars-Cov-2 spread in Northern Italy

Extensive telomere repeat arrays in mouse are hypervariable

In this study we have analysed mouse telomeres by Pulsed Field Gel Electrophoresis (PFGE). A number of specific restriction fragments hybridising to a (TTA-GGG)4 probe in the size range 50-150kb can be detected. These fragments are devoid of sites for most restriction enzymes suggesting that they comprise simple repeats; we argue that most of these are likely to be (TTAGGG)n. Each discrete fragment corresponds to the telomere of an individual chromosome and segregates as a Mendelian character. However, new size variants are being generated in the germ line at very high rates such that inbred mice are heterozygous at all telomeres analysable. In addition we show that specific small (approximately 4-12kb) fragments can be cleaved within some terminal arrays by the restriction enzyme MnII which recognises 5'(N7)GAGG3'. Like the complete telomere-repeat arrays (TRA's) these fragments form new variants at high rates and possibly by the same process. We speculate on the mechanisms that may be involved

Do dissolved heavy metals enter the food webs of alpine streams?

The Euregio - investigates the origin, export, and ecological effects of trace elements in river networks affected by rock glacier thawing and glacier retreat. Permafrost degradation and glacier recession can cause elevate export of solutes, including heavy metals, into river networks while the contribution from groundwater is often negligible. However, the ecological effects remain understudied. We assessed if and how trace element enrichment causes biomagnification processes in the aquatic organisms by characterizing the foodwebs of different stream types (intact and relict rock glaciers, and reference spring draining an area without periglacial landforms/glaciers/permafrost) with 13 15N isotopic ratios analysis and measuring the content of trace elements in each component of the foodweb. The investigation was conducted in 2022 in two catchments in South-Tyrol: Lazaun and Madritsch/Madriccio Valleys. The analysed matrices were: CPOM, FPOM, epilithic biofilms, bryophytes, and benthic invertebrates of different taxa characterized and grouped by feeding habit (omnivore, carnivore, herbivore, detritivore). The same trace elements were measured in the water of each stream type. As expected, most of the biomagnification occurred in streams originating from intact rock glaciers

Seasonal "Windows of opportunity" in Alpine headwaters: implication for diatom assemblages

In the European Alps, around 80% of glacier volume is predicted to vanish within the end of this century because of global warming. The progressing glacier retreat is affecting the Alpine hydrological dynamics as well as the distribution and biodiversity of glacier-fed streams. Within this scenario of vanishing glaciers, mountain permafrost is becoming increasingly significant since the thawing of its subsurface ice occurs at a slower rate in comparison to surface glacier ice. The most common evidence of mountain permafrost are the rock glaciers, i.e., creeping rocky landforms made of rock fragments that host subsurface ice. Springs and streams emerging from intact (containing ice) and relict (not containing ice) rock glaciers are increasingly considered as a climate-resistant source of cold water, as well as ecological refugia for cold-stenothermic aquatic organisms. Nonetheless, the knowledge of benthic biodiversity and dynamics in relation to the seasonal changes of habitat and water chemical setting is still patchy and incomplete. Ecological Windows of Opportunity (WOs) are defined as seasonal periods of mild environmental conditions supporting the development of benthic primary producers, especially diatoms, in Alpine glacial streams. The primary WO occurs in autumn when glacier ablation is reduced, and glacier-fed streams have stable channels and less turbid waters. Differently, the spring WO more strongly depends on stochastic meteorological factors and is more irregularly paralleled by benthic growth. Although WOs have been conceptually modelled based on field surveys of primary producers in glacial streams of the European Alps, much scarcer field evidence is available for headwaters of different origin. In particular, the seasonal development of diatom biomass and diversity in Alpine headwaters fed by rock-glaciers and in non-glacial reference streams (i.e., not influenced by permafrost and glaciers) in the present context of Alpine deglaciation is poorly known. Here we present the first results of a two-year investigation on seasonal development of diatom biomass and diversity in headwater streams of different origin in two deglaciating catchments of the Italian Central- Eastern Alps. The study has been conducted within the Euregio project “Rock-me” (2022-2025, https://rock-glaciers-euregio.fmach.it/) by investigating physical (temperature, turbidity) and chemical (nutrients, major ions, and trace elements) parameters of water, organic and chlorophyll-a content of epilithic biofilm, as well as density and taxonomic composition of epilithic diatoms in streams fed by glaciers and rock glaciers, and in non-glacial reference streams in both catchments. We found different patterns of seasonal WOs, outlined by higher diatom density and biofilm chlorophyll content, either in early or late summer, in headwaters of different origin in relation to differing hydrological dynamics and habitat settings. The early summer WO appears to be more pronounced in headwaters fed by glaciers or rock glaciers, as a possible effect of the climate-related hydrological dynamics in deglaciating Alpine catchments. On the other hand, non-glacial springs and streams with more stable water discharge are characterised by a more evident late summer WO. Seasonal changes of diatom biodiversity seem to be related to differing hydrological dynamics at catchment scal

Relationship between QT interval and cardiovascular risk factors in healthy young subjects

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Precautionary advice about mobile phones: Public understandings and intended responses

The official published version can be obtained from the link below - Copyright @ Taylor & FrancisThere is a widespread academic and policy debate about public responses to precaution in public health campaigns. This paper explores these issues in relation to the precautionary stance adopted in the UK around the regulation of mobile telecommunications. The aim of the paper is to examine the nature of attitudes to precaution, and the way in which these, along with other relevant variables, relate to the intention to adopt relevant behaviours. The results from an experimental study (n = 173) indicate that people distinguish between two dimensions of precaution: firstly in relation to its value or necessity per se and secondly as anchored to notions of governance. The two variables differentially relate to other variables including trust and uncertainty, and are predictive of intended behaviour change indirectly, through worry about mobile phone risks. Precautionary advice was generally interpreted as causing concern rather than providing reassurance. The results suggest that precaution may be considered a valuable stance but this does not mean that it is seen as good governance or that it will reduce concern. Whilst the discourse of precaution is aimed at reducing concern, it appears that the uptake of relevant behaviours is largely triggered by worry

A multi-model climate response over tropical Africa at +2 °C

The impact of a +2 °C global warming on temperature and precipitation over tropical Africa is examined, based on an ensemble of 12 regional climate model scenario simulations. These 12 scenarios are re-phased so that they all correspond to the same global warming of 2 °C with respect to pre-industrial conditions. The continental temperature increase is above the global average. If heat waves are defined with the same temperature threshold in the reference climate and in the scenario, their frequency increases by a factor of 10. When the temperature threshold is adapted to future conditions, there is still a slight increase in frequency. The average precipitation does not show a significant response, due to model-to-model spread. However two compensating phenomena occur, which are robust among the models: (a) the number of rain days decreases whereas the precipitation intensity increases, and (b) the rain season occurs later during the year with less precipitation in early summer and more precipitation in late summer. Simulated daily temperature and precipitation data are combined in two impact models, one for the hydrology of the Nile and Niger basins, one for the food security of the different countries. They show that the main feature of the climate change is not a continuous trend signal, but an alternation of dry and wet decadal to multidecadal episodes