Estimating health adjusted age at death (HAAD)

Objectives: At any point in time, a person’s lifetime health is the number of healthy life years they are expected to experience during their lifetime. In this article we propose an equity-relevant health metric, Health Adjusted Age at Death (HAAD), that facilitates comparison of lifetime health for individuals at the onset of different medical conditions, and allows for the assessment of which patient groups are worse off. A method for estimating HAAD is presented, and we use this method to rank four conditions in six countries according to several criteria of “worse off” as a proof of concept. Methods: For individuals with specific conditions HAAD consists of two components: past health (before disease onset) and future expected health (after disease onset). Four conditions (acute myeloid leukemia (AML), acute lymphoid leukemia (ALL), schizophrenia, and epilepsy) are analysed in six countries (Ethiopia, Haiti, China, Mexico, United States and Japan). Data from 2017 for all countries and for all diseases were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study database. In order to assess who are the worse off, we focus on four measures: the proportion of affected individuals who are expected to have HAAD<20 (T20), the 25th and 75th percentiles of HAAD for affected individuals (Q1 and Q3, respectively), and the average HAAD (aHAAD) across all affected individuals. Results: Even in settings where aHAAD is similar for two conditions, other measures may vary. One example is AML (aHAAD = 59.3, T20 = 2.0%, Q3-Q1 = 14.8) and ALL (58.4, T20 = 4.6%, Q3-Q1 = 21.8) in the US. Many illnesses, such as epilepsy, are associated with more lifetime health in high-income settings (Q1 in Japan = 59.2) than in low-income settings (Q1 in Ethiopia = 26.3). Conclusion: Using HAAD we may estimate the distribution of lifetime health of all individuals in a population, and this distribution can be incorporated as an equity consideration in setting priorities for health interventions.publishedVersio

Craving mediates the effect of impulsivity on lapse-risk during alcohol use disorder treatment

Rash impulsiveness, the propensity for approach behaviour despite potential negative consequences, is associated with stronger alcohol craving in patients with Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD). This relationship is poorly understood and implications for treatment response are unexamined. This study explored the relationship between rash impulsiveness, craving, and treatment response among 304 outpatients enrolled in a 12-week abstinence-based Cognitive-Behavioural Therapy (CBT) program for AUD. Assessments were completed pre-and-post treatment, with craving and alcohol consumption monitored at each treatment session. Higher rash impulsiveness predicted more frequent craving over treatment (b = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.40, 1.50). Higher craving was associated with greater lapse-risk (b = 0.04, 95% CI = 0.03, 0.05), with the association between craving and lapse-risk increasing as treatment progressed (b = 0.01, 95% CI = 0.01, 0.02). Craving positively mediated the relationship between rash impulsiveness and lapse-risk (µ = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.10, 0.70). Contrary to hypotheses, the risk of lapse in response to craving was not moderated by rash-impulsiveness. These results suggest that AUD patients with a predisposition for rash impulsiveness are more vulnerable to alcohol craving, and subsequently, poorer treatment outcomes

No Effect of a Whey Growth Factor Extract during Resistance Training on Strength, Body Composition, or Hypertrophic Gene Expression in Resistance-Trained Young Men

Growth factors can be isolated from bovine milk to form a whey growth factor extract (WGFE). This study examined whether WGFE promoted activation of the AKT/mTOR pathway enabling increased lean tissue mass and strength in resistance trained men. Forty six men with \u3e6 months of resistance training (RT) experience performed 12 weeks of RT. Participants consumed 20 g/day of whey protein and were randomised to receive either 1.6 g WGFE/day (WGFE; n = 22) or 1.6 g cellulose/day (control, CONT; n = 24). The primary outcome was leg press one-repetition maximum (LP1-RM) which was assessed at baseline, 6 and 12 weeks. At baseline and 12 weeks body composition was assessed by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry, and muscle protein synthesis and gene expression were assessed (vastus lateralis biopsy) in a sub-sample (WGFE n = 10, CONT n = 10) pre- and 3 hr post-training. RT increased LP1-RM (+34.9%) and lean tissue mass (+2.3%; p \u3c 0.05) with no difference between treatments (p \u3e 0.48, treatment x time). Post-exercise P70s6k phosphorylation increased acutely, FOXO3a phosphorylation was unaltered. There were no differences in kinase signalling or gene expression between treatments. Compared with CONT, WGFE did not result in greater increases in lean tissue mass or strength in experienced resistance trained men

Constituting monetary conservatives via the 'savings habit': New Labour and the British housing market bubble

The ongoing world credit crunch might well kill off the most recent bubble dynamics in the British housing market by driving prices systematically downwards from their 2007 peak. Nonetheless, the experience of that bubble still warrants analytical attention. The Labour Government might not have been responsible for consciously creating it, but it has certainly grasped the opportunities the bubble has provided in an attempt to enforce a process of agential change at the heart of the British economy. The key issue in this respect is the way in which the Government has challenged the legitimacy of passive welfare receipts in favour of establishing a welfare system based on incorporating the individual into an active asset-holding society. The housing market has taken on new political significance as a means for individuals first to acquire assets and then to accumulate wealth on the back of asset ownership. The ensuing integration of the housing market into an increasingly reconfigured welfare system has permeated into the politics of everyday life. It has been consistent with individuals remaking their political subjectivities in line with preferences for the type of conservative monetary policies that typically keep house price bubbles inflated

Astrobiological Considerations for the Selection of the Geological Filters on the ExoMars PanCam Instrument

The Panoramic Camera (PanCam) instrument will provide visible–near IR multispectral imaging of the ExoMars rover's surroundings to identify regions of interest within the nearby terrain. This multispectral capability is dependant upon the 12 preselected “geological” filters that are integrated into two wide-angle cameras. First devised by the Imager for Mars Pathfinder team to detect iron oxides, this baseline filter set has remained largely unchanged for subsequent missions (Mars Exploration Rovers, Beagle 2, Phoenix) despite the advancing knowledge of the mineralogical diversity on Mars. Therefore, the geological filters for the ExoMars PanCam will be redesigned to accommodate the astrobiology focus of ExoMars, where hydrated mineral terrains (evidence of past liquid water) will be priority targets. Here, we conduct an initial investigation into new filter wavelengths for the ExoMars PanCam and present results from tests performed on Mars analog rocks. Two new filter sets were devised: one with filters spaced every 50 nm (“F1-12”) and another that utilizes a novel filter selection method based upon hydrated mineral reflectance spectra (“F2-12”). These new filter sets, along with the Beagle 2 filter set (currently the baseline for the ExoMars PanCam), were tested on their ability to identify hydrated minerals and biosignatures present in Mars analog rocks. The filter sets, with varying degrees of ability, detected the spectral features of minerals jarosite, opaline silica, alunite, nontronite, and siderite present in these rock samples. None of the filter sets, however, were able to detect fossilized biomat structures and small (<2 mm) mineralogical heterogeneities present in silica sinters. Both new filter sets outperformed the Beagle 2 filters, with F2-12 detecting the most spectral features produced by hydrated minerals and providing the best discrimination between samples. Future work involving more extensive testing on Mars analog samples that exhibit a wider range of mineralogies would be the next step in carefully evaluating the new filter sets

Antiretroviral Drug Use in a Cross-Sectional Population Survey in Africa

BackgroundAntiretroviral (ARV) drug treatment benefits the treated individual and can prevent HIV transmission. We assessed ARV drug use in a community-randomized trial that evaluated the impact of behavioral interventions on HIV incidence.MethodsSamples were collected in a cross-sectional survey after a 3-year intervention period. ARV drug testing was performed using samples from HIV-infected adults at 4 study sites (Zimbabwe; Tanzania; KwaZulu-Natal and Soweto, South Africa; survey period 2009-2011) using an assay that detects 20 ARV drugs (6 nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors, 3 nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, and 9 protease inhibitors; maraviroc; raltegravir).ResultsARV drugs were detected in 2011 (27.4%) of 7347 samples; 88.1% had 1 nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors ± 1-2 nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors. ARV drug detection was associated with sex (women&gt;men), pregnancy, older age (&gt;24 years), and study site (P &lt; 0.0001 for all 4 variables). ARV drugs were also more frequently detected in adults who were widowed (P = 0.006) or unemployed (P = 0.02). ARV drug use was more frequent in intervention versus control communities early in the survey (P = 0.01), with a significant increase in control (P = 0.004) but not in intervention communities during the survey period. In KwaZulu-Natal, a 1% increase in ARV drug use was associated with a 0.14% absolute decrease in HIV incidence (P = 0.018).ConclusionsThis study used an objective, biomedical approach to assess ARV drug use on a population level. This analysis identified factors associated with ARV drug use and provided information on ARV drug use over time. ARV drug use was associated with lower HIV incidence at 1 study site

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of biologic treatments for psoriatic arthritis: : can we make better use of patient data registries?

The primary aim of this study is to explore the extent to which registry data may fulfill the evidence requirements of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) studies evaluating biologic therapies for the treatment of psoriatic arthritis (PsA), where trial data are lacking or insufficient. In addition, the paper aims to identify how future data collection in PsA registries might be better tailored to inform CEA research. A review of the literature was performed to identify existing registries containing PsA patients. Where possible, information was extracted on the design and characteristics of the registries. The registries were then appraised according to a set of criteria that was formulated based on the methods currently used to model PsA in the CEA literature. A review of the literature identified 21 potentially relevant registries from around the world containing patients with PsA. There was substantial variation regarding the extent to which the registries, as a whole, were useful for the purposes of CEA studies. There were also notable disparities found in terms of the accessibility of the registries to researchers. The critical review conducted in this study showed that all of the registries identified are potentially useful, at least in some degree, for the purposes of informing CEA studies in PsA. However, no individual registry on its own was found to meet all of the evidence requirements when considering how the disease has been modeled previously

Use of a High Resolution Melting (HRM) Assay to Compare Gag, Pol, and Env Diversity in Adults with Different Stages of HIV Infection

Cross-sectional assessment of HIV incidence relies on laboratory methods to discriminate between recent and non-recent HIV infection. Because HIV diversifies over time in infected individuals, HIV diversity may serve as a biomarker for assessing HIV incidence. We used a high resolution melting (HRM) diversity assay to compare HIV diversity in adults with different stages of HIV infection. This assay provides a single numeric HRM score that reflects the level of genetic diversity of HIV in a sample from an infected individual.HIV diversity was measured in 203 adults: 20 with acute HIV infection (RNA positive, antibody negative), 116 with recent HIV infection (tested a median of 189 days after a previous negative HIV test, range 14-540 days), and 67 with non-recent HIV infection (HIV infected >2 years). HRM scores were generated for two regions in gag, one region in pol, and three regions in env.Median HRM scores were higher in non-recent infection than in recent infection for all six regions tested. In multivariate models, higher HRM scores in three of the six regions were independently associated with non-recent HIV infection.The HRM diversity assay provides a simple, scalable method for measuring HIV diversity. HRM scores, which reflect the genetic diversity in a viral population, may be useful biomarkers for evaluation of HIV incidence, particularly if multiple regions of the HIV genome are examined

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography–year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4–61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5–72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7–17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5–70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6–5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8–18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6–16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9–14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1–44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7–51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8–34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3–37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000–183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000–532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundatio