1,265 research outputs found

    Common Raven Impacts on the Productivity of a Small Breeding Population of Snowy Plovers

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    Common ravens (ravens; Corvus corax), an adaptable, synanthropic generalist, have thrived coincident with increasing human landscape modifications and fragmentation, consequently affecting their prey, which are often sensitive native and protected species. Ravens are a conservation concern for the protected western snowy plover (plover; Charadrius nivosus nivosus), causing low nest and chick survival in some breeding areas along the Pacific coast of North America. We used a long-term dataset from a breeding snowy plover monitoring program in Point Reyes National Seashore (PRNS) to investigate potential impacts of ravens on snowy plover nest and fledging success. Between 2002 and 2020, ravens accounted for 33.7% of all plover nest failures and 40.8% of unexclosed plover nest failures. Raven activity varied by plover breeding site, with more ravens observed per survey hour at Kehoe Beach and the Abbotts Lagoon restoration area, sites that had lower fledge success than other breeding areas. Binomial generalized linear mixed models found that plover nest success was best explained by raven activity (negative relationship) and use of nest exclosures (positive relationship). Our model results on snowy plover fledge success were less apparent, resulting in difficult management planning for this vital rate when using exclosures. Furthermore, nest exclosures were effective in increasing long-term snowy plover nest success in an ecosystem inundated by high raven activity. Evidence from PRNS and other plover breeding sites along the Pacific coast point to long-term negative impacts from ravens

    The Aemulus Project III: Emulation of the Galaxy Correlation Function

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    Using the N-body simulations of the AEMULUS Project, we construct an emulator for the non-linear clustering of galaxies in real and redshift space. We construct our model of galaxy bias using the halo occupation framework, accounting for possible velocity bias. The model includes 15 parameters, including both cosmological and galaxy bias parameters. We demonstrate that our emulator achieves ~ 1% precision at the scales of interest, 0.1<r<10 h^{-1} Mpc, and recovers the true cosmology when tested against independent simulations. Our primary parameters of interest are related to the growth rate of structure, f, and its degenerate combination fsigma_8. Using this emulator, we show that the constraining power on these parameters monotonically increases as smaller scales are included in the analysis, all the way down to 0.1 h^{-1} Mpc. For a BOSS-like survey, the constraints on fsigma_8 from r<30 h^{-1} Mpc scales alone are more than a factor of two tighter than those from the fiducial BOSS analysis of redshift-space clustering using perturbation theory at larger scales. The combination of real- and redshift-space clustering allows us to break the degeneracy between f and sigma_8, yielding a 9% constraint on f alone for a BOSS-like analysis. The current AEMULUS simulations limit this model to surveys of massive galaxies. Future simulations will allow this framework to be extended to all galaxy target types, including emission-line galaxies.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, 1 table; submitted to ApJ; the project webpage is available at https://aemulusproject.github.io ; typo in Figure 7 and caption updated, results unchange

    The Aemulus Project I: Numerical Simulations for Precision Cosmology

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    The rapidly growing statistical precision of galaxy surveys has lead to a need for ever-more precise predictions of the observables used to constrain cosmological and galaxy formation models. The primary avenue through which such predictions will be obtained is suites of numerical simulations. These simulations must span the relevant model parameter spaces, be large enough to obtain the precision demanded by upcoming data, and be thoroughly validated in order to ensure accuracy. In this paper we present one such suite of simulations, forming the basis for the AEMULUS Project, a collaboration devoted to precision emulation of galaxy survey observables. We have run a set of 75 (1.05 h^-1 Gpc)^3 simulations with mass resolution and force softening of 3.51\times 10^10 (Omega_m / 0.3) ~ h^-1 M_sun and 20 ~ h^-1 kpc respectively in 47 different wCDM cosmologies spanning the range of parameter space allowed by the combination of recent Cosmic Microwave Background, Baryon Acoustic Oscillation and Type Ia Supernovae results. We present convergence tests of several observables including spherical overdensity halo mass functions, galaxy projected correlation functions, galaxy clustering in redshift space, and matter and halo correlation functions and power spectra. We show that these statistics are converged to 1% (2%) for halos with more than 500 (200) particles respectively and scales of r>200 ~ h^-1 kpc in real space or k ~ 3 h Mpc^-1 in harmonic space for z\le 1. We find that the dominant source of uncertainty comes from varying the particle loading of the simulations. This leads to large systematic errors for statistics using halos with fewer than 200 particles and scales smaller than k ~ 4 h^-1 Mpc. We provide the halo catalogs and snapshots detailed in this work to the community at https://AemulusProject.github.io.Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures, 3 Tables Project website: https://aemulusproject.github.io

    The Aemulus Project II: Emulating the Halo Mass Function

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    Existing models for the dependence of the halo mass function on cosmological parameters will become a limiting source of systematic uncertainty for cluster cosmology in the near future. We present a halo mass function emulator and demonstrate improved accuracy relative to state-of-the-art analytic models. In this work, mass is defined using an overdensity criteria of 200 relative to the mean background density. Our emulator is constructed from the AEMULUS simulations, a suite of 40 N-body simulations with snapshots from z=3 to z=0. These simulations cover the flat wCDM parameter space allowed by recent Cosmic Microwave Background, Baryon Acoustic Oscillation and Type Ia Supernovae results, varying the parameters w, Omega_m, Omega_b, sigma_8, N_{eff}, n_s, and H_0. We validate our emulator using five realizations of seven different cosmologies, for a total of 35 test simulations. These test simulations were not used in constructing the emulator, and were run with fully independent initial conditions. We use our test simulations to characterize the modeling uncertainty of the emulator, and introduce a novel way of marginalizing over the associated systematic uncertainty. We confirm non-universality in our halo mass function emulator as a function of both cosmological parameters and redshift. Our emulator achieves better than 1% precision over much of the relevant parameter space, and we demonstrate that the systematic uncertainty in our emulator will remain a negligible source of error for cluster abundance studies through at least the LSST Year 1 data set.Comment: https://aemulusproject.github.io

    A High Throughput Workflow Environment for Cosmological Simulations

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    The next generation of wide-area sky surveys offer the power to place extremely precise constraints on cosmological parameters and to test the source of cosmic acceleration. These observational programs will employ multiple techniques based on a variety of statistical signatures of galaxies and large-scale structure. These techniques have sources of systematic error that need to be understood at the percent-level in order to fully leverage the power of next-generation catalogs. Simulations of large-scale structure provide the means to characterize these uncertainties. We are using XSEDE resources to produce multiple synthetic sky surveys of galaxies and large-scale structure in support of science analysis for the Dark Energy Survey. In order to scale up our production to the level of fifty 10^10-particle simulations, we are working to embed production control within the Apache Airavata workflow environment. We explain our methods and report how the workflow has reduced production time by 40% compared to manual management.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures. V2 corrects an error in figure

    Cross-correlation Weak Lensing of SDSS galaxy Clusters II: Cluster Density Profiles and the Mass--Richness Relation

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    We interpret and model the statistical weak lensing measurements around 130,000 groups and clusters of galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey presented by Sheldon et al. 2007 (Paper I). We present non-parametric inversions of the 2D shear profiles to the mean 3D cluster density and mass profiles in bins of both optical richness and cluster i-band luminosity. We correct the inferred 3D profiles for systematic effects, including non-linear shear and the fact that cluster halos are not all precisely centered on their brightest galaxies. We also model the measured cluster shear profile as a sum of contributions from the brightest central galaxy, the cluster dark matter halo, and neighboring halos. We infer the relations between mean cluster virial mass and optical richness and luminosity over two orders of magnitude in cluster mass; the virial mass at fixed richness or luminosity is determined with a precision of 13% including both statistical and systematic errors. We also constrain the halo concentration parameter and halo bias as a function of cluster mass; both are in good agreement with predictions of LCDM models. The methods employed here will be applicable to deeper, wide-area optical surveys that aim to constrain the nature of the dark energy, such as the Dark Energy Survey, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and space-based surveys
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