Demographic Dividends, Human Capital, and Saving.

The objective of this paper is to provide new evidence about the development effects of changes in population age structure and human and physical capital. This extends our previous work by developing and employing a more comprehensive model of demographic dividends. In addition, we extend earlier analysis about the quantity-quality tradeoff using newly available NTA data for 39 countries, in contrast to the nineteen with the necessary data in our 2010 study. This permits a more detailed analysis, treating public expenditures and private expenditures separately, and considering the role of per capita income as well as fertility and child dependency in relation to human capital spending. The analysis is used in a simulation with realistic demography to show how human capital investment has varied in relation to the changing demography from 1950 to the present, and how it might be expected to change over the rest of this century. These new estimates are then used in a more comprehensive model that incorporates both human and physical capital. The analysis provides estimates of the first and second demographic dividends and how they are affected by speed of fertility decline. The timing of the effects is documented and the relative importance of investment in physical and human capital is assessed. This improves our understanding of the economic implications of the demographic dividend and particularly the “second demographic dividend”

Charting the Economic Life Cycle

Understanding the economic lifecycle %u2013 how it varies and why %u2013 is important in its own right, but is also critical to understanding how changes in population age structure influence many features of the macroeconomy. Economic behavior over the life cycle can be summarized by the average levels of consumption and labor earnings at each age, as shaped by biology, culture, institutions and individual choice. Here we present estimates of these in detail for the US and Taiwan, showing the roles played by public and familial transfer systems as well as asset accumulation, and present more basic profiles for selected additional countries drawing on studies from a larger project. Average economic dependency occurs when consumption exceeds labor earnings, typically in childhood and old age. A changing population age distribution alters the relative numbers of weighted consumers and producers, as summarized by the support ratio. The %u201Cdemographic dividend%u201D occurs during a sustained period of improving support ratios during the demographic transition, as can be shown using these profiles. The estimated cross-sectional age profiles of labor income have a broadly similar hump shape. However, there are striking contrasts in the timing of earnings over the life cycle. The consumption profiles reveal even more striking contrasts, with a flat age profile of total adult consumption in Taiwan and a steeply rising one in the U.S. We believe these differences reflect the extended family versus the state as the primary locus of transfers to the elderly. Profiles for private consumption are also quite variable, with Indonesia peaking early around age 25, Taiwan being essentially flat, and the US peaking late at around 55. Private expenditures on education show wide variations, with unusually high expenditures in some Asian countries. Because of possible public-private substitutions, it is questionable to assign causality to either for differences in total consumption, but it is hard to avoid noticing that without public spending on Medicare and institutional Medicaid in the U.S., total consumption would decline after 55, whereas with them, it rises strongly. There is only a short period of life during which production exceeds consumption barely more than 30 years in the US, Taiwan, and Thailand. The brevity of this phase contrasts sharply with high life expectancy, approaching 80 years in many countries.

Collective Bargaining Agreements without Arbitration Clauses: Does the Finality Doctrine Bar Section 301 Suits?

A recent survey of collective bargaining agreements demonstrated that the parties to those agreements provided for a grievance procedure that included an arbitration proceeding in 96% of the cases surveyed. In this overwhelming number of cases, the employee may sue an employer for breach of contract under section 301 of the National Labor Relations Act (the Act), or follow a grievance procedure. In the latter instance, the employee is bound by the arbitration and its reward. The application of the finality doctrine to these cases is clear, fair, and established. This is not true with respect to the remaining four per cent of those agreements in which the procedure does not provide for binding arbitration. The law governing when an employee may sue under section 301 in those situations in which the collective bargaining agreement has not provided for a culminating arbitration is not clear, at times unfair, and certainly not established. In fact, various courts differ significantly over the issue of whether the finality doctrine does or should apply when the grievance procedure does not employ binding arbitration as a form of dispute resolution. If, as several federal courts have held, the employee is bound by the finality doctrine to the grievance procedure as set out in the agreement, then he is barred from litigating the merits of his grievance before a court under section 301 of the Act. If, on the other hand, as the state courts have held, the employee is not bound by the finality doctrine, then it follows that he is not so barred. The Supreme Court has not addressed this issue. This article will review briefly the law applicable to the majority of cases in which the agreements did provide for grievance procedures that employed some form of arbitration. Perhaps more importantly, it will then analyze in greater depth various court decisions that have attempted to resolve the more complex issue: that is, to what extent should the finality doctrine be applied, if at all, to grievance procedures which do not include binding arbitration

El envejecimiento de la población y la economía generacional: resultados principales

Incluye bibliografíaEste documento constituye la traducción al español del primer capítulo del libro Population Aging and the Generational Economy: A Global Perspective, editado por los profesores Ronald Lee y Andrew Mason. El libro se desarrolló en el marco del proyecto global de las Cuentas Nacionales de Transferencias, y es el resultado de siete años de investigación en los que se involucraron más de 50 economistas y demógrafos de África, Asia, Europa, América Latina y los Estados Unidos. Por lo tanto, representa una importante referencia para la investigación y el diseño de políticas públicas relacionadas con el envejecimiento de la población y el desarrollo económico

Comparison between RF and electrical signals from the partial discharge activity of twisted pair cables at reduced pressures

A pressure-controlled test facility has been set up that allows the PD behaviour of polymer insulated twisted pair samples exposed to 50 Hz AC voltages in the range of 0 to 10 kV to be characterised. Resulting PD activity is quantified using the methods defined in IEC standard 60270 and by using a simple monopole antenna to detect the RF signals excited inside the pressure vessel by the discharges. This paper gives the results of preliminary tests performed on samples of wire insulated with Ethylenetetraflourethylene, Silicon Rubber and Polyvinylchloride in the pressure range between 103 and 105 Pa in atmospheric air. The dependence of PD inception voltage on the environmental pressure is reported. Changes in the behaviour of the PD activity; the correlations between the RF and electrical measurements and the frequency components of the RF signals as the applied voltage and pressure are varied are characterised and discussed

Information Archeology: Excavating Lessons from Past Successes

There bas k c n an eiionnous publicity push for the dramatic force of IT as a meam of business transformation as a new and dramatically different pbenoinenon. ?\u27Lie panel will discuss the results of a six-year analysis of six organizations that, in fact, uansformed themselves. In the process tliey developed an innovative IT design that so dominated their industry that finns either adopted or lost shares. Oue of the transformations occurred between 1956 and 1959, two in the 1 9 6 0 ~and three in clie 1980s. The process typically required five to six years. A common thread of all these organizations is that today thhcy are still leaders in the use of lT and they are extending their competitive edge through IT innovations. Most of Ihe companies are wcll hiowti for their exploits: American Airlines, American Hospital Supply-Baxter Travenol, USAA, atid Frito-Lay. The sleeper and earliest innovafor is the Bank of America. We have recently completed a Federal Express saga