Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are introduced here, based on quantile forecasts being the base product for the continuous case (hence in a nonparametric framework). The relative user characteristic (RUC) curve and the quantile value plot allow analysing the performance of a forecast for a specific user in a decision-making framework. The RUC curve is designed as a user-based discrimination tool and the quantile value plot translates forecast discrimination ability in terms of economic value. The relationship between the overall value of a quantile forecast and the respective quantile skill score is also discussed. The application of these new verification approaches and tools is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global radiation forecasts from the high resolution ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service

Investigating the effect of thermal gradients on stress in solid oxide fuel cell anodes using combined synchrotron radiation and thermal imaging

Thermal gradients can arise within solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) due to start-up and shut-down, non-uniform gas distribution, fast cycling and operation under internal reforming conditions. Here, the effects of operationally relevant thermal gradients on Ni/YSZ SOFC anode half cells are investigated using combined synchrotron X-ray diffraction and thermal imaging. The combination of these techniques has identified significant deviation from linear thermal expansion behaviour in a sample exposed to a one dimensional thermal gradient. Stress gradients are identified along isothermal regions due to the presence of a proximate thermal gradient, with tensile stress deviations of up to 75Â MPa being observed across the sample at a constant temperature. Significant strain is also observed due to the presence of thermal gradients when compared to work carried out at isothermal conditions

Sexual dimorphism in trait variability and its eco-evolutionary and statistical implications

Biomedical and clinical sciences are experiencing a renewed interest in the fact that males and females differ in many anatomic, physiological, and behavioural traits. Sex differences in trait variability, however, are yet to receive similar recognition. In medical science, mammalian females are assumed to have higher trait variability due to estrous cycles (the ‘estrus-mediated variability hypothesis’); historically in biomedical research, females have been excluded for this reason. Contrastingly, evolutionary theory and associated data support the ‘greater male variability hypothesis’. Here, we test these competing hypotheses in 218 traits measured in >26,900 mice, using meta-analysis methods. Neither hypothesis could universally explain patterns in trait variability. Sex bias in variability was trait-dependent. While greater male variability was found in morphological traits, females were much more variable in immunological traits. Sex-specific variability has eco-evolutionary ramifications, including sex-dependent responses to climate change, as well as statistical implications including power analysis considering sex difference in variance

The Species of Rhimphoctona (Xylophylax) (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae: Campopleginae) Parasitizing Woodborers in China

Four species of Rhimphoctona (Xylophylax) collected from P. R. China are reported. Two of them are new to science: Rhimphoctona (Xylophylax) maculifemoralis Luo and Sheng, sp.nov. reared from Tetropium castaneum (Linnaeus), and Rhimphoctona (Xylophylax) immaculata Luo and Sheng, sp.nov. One is a new record for China, R. (Xylophylax) rufocoxalis (Clément 1924) reared from T. castaneum (Linnaeus). The other is R. (Xylophylax) lucida (Clément 1924) reared from Monochamus saltuarius Gebier, Tetropium gabrieli Weise and Asemus sp. A key to species known in China is provided

Could Work Be a Source of Behavioural Disorders? A Study in Horses

Stress at work, as shown by a number of human studies, may lead to a variety of negative and durable effects, such as impaired psychological functioning (anxiety, depression…). Horses share with humans this characteristic of working on a daily basis and are submitted then to work stressors related to physical constraints and/or more “psychological” conflicts, such as potential controversial orders from the riders or the requirement to suppress emotions. On another hand, horses may perform abnormal repetitive behaviour (“stereotypies”) in response to adverse life conditions. In the present study, we investigated whether the type of work the horses are used for may have an impact on their tendency to show stereotypic behaviour (and its type) outside work. Observations in their box of 76 horses all living in the same conditions, belonging to one breed and one sex, revealed that the prevalence and types of stereotypies performed strongly depended upon the type of work they were used for. The stereotypies observed involved mostly mouth movements and head tossing/nodding. Work constraints probably added to unfavourable living conditions, favouring the emergence of chronic abnormal behaviours. This is especially remarkable as the 23 hours spent in the box were influenced by the one hour work performed every day. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of potential effects of work stressors on the emergence of abnormal behaviours in an animal species. It raises an important line of thought on the chronic impact of the work situation on the daily life of individuals

Who will use pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and why?: Understanding PrEP awareness and acceptability amongst men who have sex with men in the UK – a mixed methods study

Background: Recent clinical trials suggest that pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may reduce HIV transmission by up to 86% for men who have sex with men (MSM), whilst relatively high levels of PrEP acceptability have been reported to date. This study examines PrEP awareness amongst sub-groups of MSM communities and acceptability amongst MSM in a low prevalence region (Scotland, UK), using a mixed methods design. Methods: Quantitative surveys of n = 690 MSM recruited online via social and sociosexual media were analysed using descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression. In addition, n = 10 in-depth qualitative interviews with MSM were analysed thematically. Results: Under one third (29.7%) of MSM had heard of PrEP, with awareness related to living in large cities, degree level education, commercial gay scene use and reporting an HIV test in the last year. Just under half of participants (47.8%) were likely to use PrEP if it were available but there was no relationship between PrEP acceptability and previous PrEP awareness. Younger men (18–25 years) and those who report higher risk UAI were significantly more likely to say they would use PrEP. Qualitative data described specific PrEP scenarios, illustrating how risk, patterns of sexual practice and social relationships could affect motivation for and nature of PrEP use. Conclusion: These findings suggest substantial interest PrEP amongst MSM reporting HIV risk behaviours in Scotland. Given the Proud results, there is a strong case to investigate PrEP implementation within the UK. However, it appears that disparities in awareness have already emerged along traditional indicators of inequality. Our research identifies the need for comprehensive support when PrEP is introduced, including a key online component, to ensure equity of awareness across diverse MSM communities (e.g. by geography, education, gay scene use and HIV proximity), as well as to responding to the diverse informational and sexual health needs of all MSM communities

Family Planning Decisions, Perceptions and Gender Dynamics among Couples in Mwanza, Tanzania: A Qualitative Study.

Contraceptive use is low in developing countries which are still largely driven by male dominated culture and patriarchal values. This study explored family planning (FP) decisions, perceptions and gender dynamics among couples in Mwanza region of Tanzania. Twelve focus group discussions and six in-depth interviews were used to collect information from married or cohabiting males and females aged 18-49. The participants were purposively selected. Qualitative methods were used to explore family planning decisions, perceptions and gender dynamics among couples. A guide with questions related to family planning perceptions, decisions and gender dynamics was used. The discussions and interviews were tape-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analyzed manually and subjected to content analysis. Four themes emerged during the study. First, "risks and costs" which refer to the side effects of FP methods and the treatment of side -effects as well as the costs inherit in being labeled as an unfaithful spouse. Second, "male involvement" as men showed little interest in participating in family planning issues. However, the same men were mentioned as key decision-makers even on the number of children a couple should have and the child spacing of these children. Third, "gender relations and communication" as participants indicated that few women participated in decision-making on family planning and the number of children to have. Fourth, "urban-rural differences", life in rural favoring having more children than urban areas therefore, the value of children depended on the place of residence. Family Planning programs should adapt the promotion of communication as well as joint decision-making on FP among couples as a strategy aimed at enhancing FP use

An Efficient Representation of Euclidean Gravity I

We explore how the topology of spacetime fabric is encoded into the local structure of Riemannian metrics using the gauge theory formulation of Euclidean gravity. In part I, we provide a rigorous mathematical foundation to prove that a general Einstein manifold arises as the sum of SU(2)_L Yang-Mills instantons and SU(2)_R anti-instantons where SU(2)_L and SU(2)_R are normal subgroups of the four-dimensional Lorentz group Spin(4) = SU(2)_L x SU(2)_R. Our proof relies only on the general properties in four dimensions: The Lorentz group Spin(4) is isomorphic to SU(2)_L x SU(2)_R and the six-dimensional vector space of two-forms splits canonically into the sum of three-dimensional vector spaces of self-dual and anti-self-dual two-forms. Consolidating these two, it turns out that the splitting of Spin(4) is deeply correlated with the decomposition of two-forms on four-manifold which occupies a central position in the theory of four-manifolds.Comment: 31 pages, 1 figur

Prenatal hypoxia induces increased cardiac contractility on a background of decreased capillary density.

Background: Chronic hypoxia in utero (CHU) is one of the most common insults to fetal development and may be associated with poor cardiac recovery from ischaemia-reperfusion injury,yet the effects on normal cardiac mechanical performance are poorly understood. Methods: Pregnant female wistar rats were exposed to hypoxia (12% oxygen, balance nitrogen)for days 10–20 of pregnancy. Pups were born into normal room air and weaned normally. At 10 weeks of age, hearts were excised under anaesthesia and underwent retrograde 'Langendorff' perfusion. Mechanical performance was measured at constant filling pressure (100 cm H2O) with intraventricular balloon. Left ventricular free wall was dissected away and capillary density estimated following alkaline phosphatase staining. Expression of SERCA2a and Nitric Oxide Synthases (NOS) proteins were estimated by immunoblotting. Results: CHU significantly increased body mass (P < 0.001) compared with age-matched control rats but was without effect on relative cardiac mass. For incremental increases in left ventricular balloon volume, diastolic pressure was preserved. However, systolic pressure was significantly greater following CHU for balloon volume = 50 μl (P < 0.01) and up to 200 μl (P < 0.05). For higher balloon volumes systolic pressure was not significantly different from control. Developed pressures were correspondingly increased relative to controls for balloon volumes up to 250 μl (P < 0.05).Left ventricular free wall capillary density was significantly decreased in both epicardium (18%; P <0.05) and endocardium (11%; P < 0.05) despite preserved coronary flow. Western blot analysis revealed no change to the expression of SERCA2a or nNOS but immuno-detectable eNOS protein was significantly decreased (P < 0.001) in cardiac tissue following chronic hypoxia in utero. Conclusion: These data offer potential mechanisms for poor recovery following ischaemia, including decreased coronary flow reserve and impaired angiogenesis with subsequent detrimental effects of post-natal cardiac performance

Phenotypic differentiation among native, expansive and introduced populations influences invasion success

Aim: Humans influence species distributions by modifying the environment and by dispersing species beyond their natural ranges. Populations of species that have established in disjunct regions of the world may exhibit trait differentiation from native populations due to founder effects and adaptations to selection pressures in each distributional region. We compared multiple native, expansive and introduced populations of a single species across the world, considering the influence of environmental stressors and transgenerational effects. Location: United States Gulf and Atlantic coasts, United States interior, European Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts, east coast of Australia. Taxon: Baccharis halimifolia L. (eastern baccharis). Methods: We monitored seed germination, seedling emergence, survival and early growth in a common garden experiment, conducted with over 18,200 seeds from 80 populations. We also evaluated the influence of environmental stress and maternal traits on progeny performance. Results: Introduced European Atlantic populations had faster germination and early growth than native populations. However, this was not the case for the more recently naturalized European Mediterranean populations. Introduced Australian populations grew faster than native populations in non-saline environments but had lower survival in saline conditions commonly encountered in the native range. Similarly, expansive inland US populations germinated faster than coastal native populations in non-saline environments but grew and germinated more slowly in saline environments. Maternal inflorescence and plant size were positively related with seed germination and seedling survival, whereas flower abundance was positively correlated with seedling early growth and survival. However, maternal traits explained a much lower fraction of the total variation in early demographic stages of B. halimifolia than did distributional range. Main conclusions: Phenotypic differentiation could allow B. halimifolia to adapt to different biotic and abiotic selection pressures found in each distributional range, potentially contributing to its success in introduced and expansive ranges