Effects of weather variability and air pollutants on emergency admissions for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.

This is an Author's Original Manuscript of an Article submitted for consideration in the International journal of environmental health research copyright (c) 2012 Taylor & Francis; International journal of environmental health research is available online at http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/09603123.2011.650155信州大学博士（医学）・学位論文・平成23年3月31日授与（甲第901号）・掘綾We examined the effect of ambient temperature, air pressure and air pollutants on daily emergency admissions by identifying the cause of admission for each type of stroke and cardiovascular disease using generalized linear Poisson regressionmodels allowing for overdispersion, and controlling for seasonal and inter-annual variations, days of the week and public holidays, levels of influenza and respiratory syncytial viruses. Every 1 degrees C decrease in mean temperature was associated with an increase in the daily number of emergency admissions by 7.83% (95% CI 2.06-13.25) for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and heart failure, by 35.57% (95% CI 15.59-59.02) for intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and by 11.71% (95% CI 4.1-19.89) for cerebral infarction. An increase of emergency admissions due to ICH (3.25% (95% CI 0.94-5.51)), heart failure (3.56% (95% CI 1.09-5.96)) was observed at every 1 hPa decrease in air pressure from the previous days. We found stronger detrimental effect of cold on stroke than cardiovascular disease.Articlejournal articl

Future projections of temperature-related excess out-of-hospital cardiac arrest under climate change scenarios in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have reported associations between global climate change and mortality. However, future projections of temperature-related out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) have not been thoroughly evaluated. Thus, we aimed to project temperature-related morbidity for OHCA concomitant with climate change. METHODS: We collected national registry data on all OHCA cases reported in 2005-2015 from all 47 Japanese prefectures. We used a two-stage time series analysis to estimate temperature-OHCA relationships. Time series of current and future daily mean temperature variations were constructed according to four climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using five general circulation models. We projected excess morbidity for heat and cold and the net change in 1990-2099 for each climate change scenario using the assumption of no adaptation or population changes. RESULTS: During the study period, 739,717 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were reported. Net decreases in temperature-related excess morbidity were observed under higher emission scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was -0.8% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: -1.9, 0.1) for a mild emission scenario (RCP2.6), -2.6% (95% eCI: -4.4, -0.8) for a stabilization scenario (RCP4.5), -3.4% (95% eCI: -5.7, -1.0) for a stabilization scenario (RCP6.0), and - 4.2% (95% eCI: -8.3, -0.1) for an extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5). CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that Japan is projected to experience a substantial net reduction in OHCAs in higher-emission scenarios. The decrease in risk is limited to a specific morbidity cause, and a broader assessment within climate change scenarios should consider other direct and indirect impacts

An Early Detection of Decline in Rotavirus Cases during the 2013/2014 Season in Japan as Revealed by Time-series Analysis of National Surveillance Data

Rotavirus is a leading cause of severe acute gastroenteritis in children worldwide, and globally licensed vaccines are available. To expedite the introduction of rotavirus vaccines in the national immunisation programme, a simple, ecological method to monitor changes in the burden of rotavirus disease may be of great help. Here, we report an application of a time-series analysis on a publicly-available dataset in Japan on the weekly number of laboratory-confirmed rotavirus-positive samples over the last 5 year period between the 36th week of 2009 and the 35th week of 2014 during which rotavirus vaccines became marketed in Japan and presumed to reach an uptake rate of at least 39% as a national average. Compared with the expected number of rotavirus detection based on the preceding four rotavirus seasons, the number of rotavirus detection during the 2013?2014 season was 42.9% (95% CI: 38.6, 47.8). This suggests that the use of rotavirus vaccine had a positive impact on reducing the burden of rotavirus diarrhoea in Japan. This method, because of its simplicity and little cost, should be applicable to early detection of the impact of rotavirus vaccine even in resource-poor countries where the World Health Organization funded and implemented the sentinel surveillance programmes of laboratory-confirmed rotavirus cases

The Outcome of Eating Disorders: Relapse, Childbirth, Postnatal Depression, Family Support

This study was aimed to identify eating disorder (ED) relapse, childbirth, postnatal depression,and the family support. Of the ED patients during treatment from 1994 to 2004,55 were pregnant and had ED recovery. Of them, 25 (21 Bulimia Nervosa (BN)and 4 Anorexia Nervosa (AN)) agreed to take part in this study. We interviewed them every 2 wk. both during the pregnancy and after childbirth. We also interviewed family members each month. The Eating Attitudes Test-26 (EAT-26) and Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) were helpful for diagnosing the EDs and postnatal depression. As the statistical analysis, We conducted t-test.67%relapsed ED while pregnant and 50%relapsed postnatal. In the non-relapse group, all the subjects had vaginal delivery and their infants were male. 50% of the subjects had postnatal depression. Non-Postnatal depression group had average body- weight infants. With regard to family support, there was no relationship between ED relapse and postnatal depression. We found that the rate of ED relapse and that of suffering from postnatal depression were remarkable in this group, suggesting the necessity for long-term follow-up for the EDs

Anemia and Related Factors in Preschool Children in the Southern Rural Lao People’s Democratic Republic

Anemia is a severe public health problem in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR). Consequently, a new control strategy to reduce the burden of anemia has been introduced for preschool children (aged 6–52 months). The objective of this study was to assess the current prevalence of anemia and related factors in preschool children in southern rural Lao PDR. A population-based cross-sectional study was carried out in six communities in Songkhone district, Savannakheth province, in February 2009. As a result, the prevalence of anemia was found to be 48.9% (95% confidence interval (CI), 43.5–54.3), although most cases were mild. A multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that there was no protective effect of breastfeeding against anemia. The anemia prevalence was higher in 1) children aged 6–23 months (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.73, 95% CI, 1.02–2.90) than in older children, 2) children in large families (6 or more members) (OR = 1.96, 95% CI, 1.17–3.29), and 3) children in three remote villages with relatively difficult access to markets (OR = 3.01, 95% CI, 1.25–7.47)

Modelling typhoid risk in Dhaka Metropolitan Area of Bangladesh: the role of socio-economic and environmental factors

BackgroundDeveloping countries in South Asia, such as Bangladesh, bear a disproportionate burden of diarrhoeal diseases such as Cholera, Typhoid and Paratyphoid. These seem to be aggravated by a number of social and environmental factors such as lack of access to safe drinking water, overcrowdedness and poor hygiene brought about by poverty. Some socioeconomic data can be obtained from census data whilst others are more difficult to elucidate. This study considers a range of both census data and spatial data from other sources, including remote sensing, as potential predictors of typhoid risk. Typhoid data are aggregated from hospital admission records for the period from 2005 to 2009. The spatial and statistical structures of the data are analysed and Principal Axis Factoring is used to reduce the degree of co-linearity in the data. The resulting factors are combined into a Quality of Life index, which in turn is used in a regression model of typhoid occurrence and risk.ResultsThe three Principal Factors used together explain 87% of the variance in the initial candidate predictors, which eminently qualifies them for use as a set of uncorrelated explanatory variables in a linear regression model. Initial regression result using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) were disappointing, this was explainable by analysis of the spatial autocorrelation inherent in the Principal factors. The use of Geographically Weighted Regression caused a considerable increase in the predictive power of regressions based on these factors. The best prediction, determined by analysis of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was found when the three factors were combined into a quality of life index, using a method previously published by others, and had a coefficient of determination of 73%.ConclusionsThe typhoid occurrence/risk prediction equation was used to develop the first risk map showing areas of Dhaka Metropolitan Area whose inhabitants are at greater or lesser risk of typhoid infection. This, coupled with seasonal information on typhoid incidence also reported in this paper, has the potential to advise public health professionals on developing prevention strategies such as targeted vaccination

Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands

Large malaria epidemics in the East African highlands during the mid and late 1990s kindled a stream of research on the role that global warming might have on malaria transmission. Most of the inferences using temporal information have been derived from a malaria incidence time series from Kericho. Here, we report a detailed analysis of 5 monthly time series, between 15 and 41 years long, from West Kenya encompassing an altitudinal gradient along Lake Victoria basin. We found decreasing, but heterogeneous, malaria trends since the late 1980s at low altitudes (<1600 m), and the early 2000s at high altitudes (>1600 m). Regime shifts were present in 3 of the series and were synchronous in the 2 time series from high altitudes. At low altitude, regime shifts were associated with a shift from increasing to decreasing malaria transmission, as well as a decrease in variability. At higher altitudes, regime shifts reflected an increase in malaria transmission variability. The heterogeneity in malaria trends probably reflects the multitude of factors that can drive malaria transmission and highlights the need for both spatially and temporally fine-grained data to make sound inferences about the impacts of climate change and control/elimination interventions on malaria transmission

MRI of Rheumatoid Arthritis:Comparing the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials (OMERACT) Scoring and Volume of Synovitis for the Assessment of Biologic Therapy

The outcome measures in rheumatology clinical trials (OMERACT) scores are the most mature quantitation system for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Direct measuring techniques of synovial volume have been reported with good reproducibility, although few reports have demonstrated the changes of these measures in response to treatment. To assess these clinical responses, we evaluated the correlation of the changes of clinical activity score 28-joints disease activity score (DAS28-CRP) with the changes of OMERACT scores and with synovial volume measurements. Eight RA patients who were treated by biologic agents were examined with MRI of the dominant affected wrist and finger joints before and one year after the treatment. The total OMERACT score was reduced from 48.0 to 41.3, and synovial volume was reduced from 15.4 to 8.8 milliliters. Positive correlations were seen between the changes of DAS28-CRP and the changes of OMERACT synovitis score (r＝0.27), OMERACT total score (r＝0.43) and synovial volume (r＝0.30). Limited to synovium assessment, synovial volume showed a better correlation with DAS28-CRP than the OMERACT synovitis score. On the other hand, the OMERACT total score showed a higher correlation with DAS28-CRP than synovial volume, probably because the OMERACT total score includes scores for bone erosion and bone edema as well