Flying Drosophila stabilize their vision-based velocity controller by sensing wind with their antennae

Flies and other insects use vision to regulate their groundspeed in flight, enabling them to fly in varying wind conditions. Compared with mechanosensory modalities, however, vision requires a long processing delay (~100 ms) that might introduce instability if operated at high gain. Flies also sense air motion with their antennae, but how this is used in flight control is unknown. We manipulated the antennal function of fruit flies by ablating their aristae, forcing them to rely on vision alone to regulate groundspeed. Arista-ablated flies in flight exhibited significantly greater groundspeed variability than intact flies. We then subjected them to a series of controlled impulsive wind gusts delivered by an air piston and experimentally manipulated antennae and visual feedback. The results show that an antenna-mediated response alters wing motion to cause flies to accelerate in the same direction as the gust. This response opposes flying into a headwind, but flies regularly fly upwind. To resolve this discrepancy, we obtained a dynamic model of the fly’s velocity regulator by fitting parameters of candidate models to our experimental data. The model suggests that the groundspeed variability of arista-ablated flies is the result of unstable feedback oscillations caused by the delay and high gain of visual feedback. The antenna response drives active damping with a shorter delay (~20 ms) to stabilize this regulator, in exchange for increasing the effect of rapid wind disturbances. This provides insight into flies’ multimodal sensory feedback architecture and constitutes a previously unknown role for the antennae

Developing prediction models to estimate the risk of two survival outcomes both occurring: A comparison of techniques

IntroductionThis study considers the prediction of the time until two survival outcomes have both occurred. We compared a variety of analytical methods motivated by a typical clinical problem of multimorbidity prognosis.MethodsWe considered five methods: product (multiply marginal risks), dual-outcome (directly model the time until both events occur), multistate models (msm), and a range of copula and frailty models. We assessed calibration and discrimination under a variety of simulated data scenarios, varying outcome prevalence, and the amount of residual correlation. The simulation focused on model misspecification and statistical power. Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we compared model performance when predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes both occurring.ResultsDiscrimination was similar for all methods. The product method was poorly calibrated in the presence of residual correlation. The msm and dual-outcome models were the most robust to model misspecification but suffered a drop in performance at small sample sizes due to overfitting, which the copula and frailty model were less susceptible to. The copula and frailty model's performance were highly dependent on the underlying data structure. In the clinical example, the product method was poorly calibrated when adjusting for 8 major cardiovascular risk factors.DiscussionWe recommend the dual-outcome method for predicting the risk of two survival outcomes both occurring. It was the most robust to model misspecification, although was also the most prone to overfitting. The clinical example motivates the use of the methods considered in this study

The equilibria that allow bacterial persistence in human hosts

We propose that microbes that have developed persistent relationships with human hosts have evolved cross-signalling mechanisms that permit homeostasis that conforms to Nash equilibria and, more specifically, to evolutionarily stable strategies. This implies that a group of highly diverse organisms has evolved within the changing contexts of variation in effective human population size and lifespan, shaping the equilibria achieved, and creating relationships resembling climax communities. We propose that such ecosystems contain nested communities in which equilibrium at one level contributes to homeostasis at another. The model can aid prediction of equilibrium states in the context of further change: widespread immunodeficiency, changing population densities, or extinctions.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62883/1/nature06198.pd

Clinical chronobiology: a timely consideration in critical care medicine

A fundamental aspect of human physiology is its cyclical nature over a 24-h period, a feature conserved across most life on Earth. Organisms compartmentalise processes with respect to time in order to promote survival, in a manner that mirrors the rotation of the planet and accompanying diurnal cycles of light and darkness. The influence of circadian rhythms can no longer be overlooked in clinical settings; this review provides intensivists with an up-to-date understanding of the burgeoning field of chronobiology, and suggests ways to incorporate these concepts into daily practice to improve patient outcomes. We outline the function of molecular clocks in remote tissues, which adjust cellular and global physiological function according to the time of day, and the potential clinical advantages to keeping in time with them. We highlight the consequences of "chronopathology", when this harmony is lost, and the risk factors for this condition in critically ill patients. We introduce the concept of "chronofitness" as a new target in the treatment of critical illness: preserving the internal synchronisation of clocks in different tissues, as well as external synchronisation with the environment. We describe methods for monitoring circadian rhythms in a clinical setting, and how this technology may be used for identifying optimal time windows for interventions, or to alert the physician to a critical deterioration of circadian rhythmicity. We suggest a chronobiological approach to critical illness, involving multicomponent strategies to promote chronofitness (chronobundles), and further investment in the development of personalised, time-based treatment for critically ill patients

The rise of multiple imputation: a review of the reporting and implementation of the method in medical research

BACKGROUND: Missing data are common in medical research, which can lead to a loss in statistical power and potentially biased results if not handled appropriately. Multiple imputation (MI) is a statistical method, widely adopted in practice, for dealing with missing data. Many academic journals now emphasise the importance of reporting information regarding missing data and proposed guidelines for documenting the application of MI have been published. This review evaluated the reporting of missing data, the application of MI including the details provided regarding the imputation model, and the frequency of sensitivity analyses within the MI framework in medical research articles. METHODS: A systematic review of articles published in the Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine between January 2008 and December 2013 in which MI was implemented was carried out. RESULTS: We identified 103 papers that used MI, with the number of papers increasing from 11 in 2008 to 26 in 2013. Nearly half of the papers specified the proportion of complete cases or the proportion with missing data by each variable. In the majority of the articles (86%) the imputed variables were specified. Of the 38 papers (37%) that stated the method of imputation, 20 used chained equations, 8 used multivariate normal imputation, and 10 used alternative methods. Very few articles (9%) detailed how they handled non-normally distributed variables during imputation. Thirty-nine papers (38%) stated the variables included in the imputation model. Less than half of the papers (46%) reported the number of imputations, and only two papers compared the distribution of imputed and observed data. Sixty-six papers presented the results from MI as a secondary analysis. Only three articles carried out a sensitivity analysis following MI to assess departures from the missing at random assumption, with details of the sensitivity analyses only provided by one article. CONCLUSIONS: This review outlined deficiencies in the documenting of missing data and the details provided about imputation. Furthermore, only a few articles performed sensitivity analyses following MI even though this is strongly recommended in guidelines. Authors are encouraged to follow the available guidelines and provide information on missing data and the imputation process. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12874-015-0022-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Racism as a determinant of health: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Despite a growing body of epidemiological evidence in recent years documenting the health impacts of racism, the cumulative evidence base has yet to be synthesized in a comprehensive meta-analysis focused specifically on racism as a determinant of health. This meta-analysis reviewed the literature focusing on the relationship between reported racism and mental and physical health outcomes. Data from 293 studies reported in 333 articles published between 1983 and 2013, and conducted predominately in the U.S., were analysed using random effects models and mean weighted effect sizes. Racism was associated with poorer mental health (negative mental health: r = -.23, 95% CI [-.24,-.21], k = 227; positive mental health: r = -.13, 95% CI [-.16,-.10], k = 113), including depression, anxiety, psychological stress and various other outcomes. Racism was also associated with poorer general health (r = -.13 (95% CI [-.18,-.09], k = 30), and poorer physical health (r = -.09, 95% CI [-.12,-.06], k = 50). Moderation effects were found for some outcomes with regard to study and exposure characteristics. Effect sizes of racism on mental health were stronger in cross-sectional compared with longitudinal data and in non-representative samples compared with representative samples. Age, sex, birthplace and education level did not moderate the effects of racism on health. Ethnicity significantly moderated the effect of racism on negative mental health and physical health: the association between racism and negative mental health was significantly stronger for Asian American and Latino(a) American participants compared with African American participants, and the association between racism and physical health was significantly stronger for Latino(a) American participants compared with African American participants.<br /

20-Year Risks of Breast-Cancer Recurrence after Stopping Endocrine Therapy at 5 Years

The administration of endocrine therapy for 5 years substantially reduces recurrence rates during and after treatment in women with early-stage, estrogen-receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. Extending such therapy beyond 5 years offers further protection but has additional side effects. Obtaining data on the absolute risk of subsequent distant recurrence if therapy stops at 5 years could help determine whether to extend treatment

Planck 2013 results. XI. All-sky model of thermal dust emission

This paper presents an all-sky model of dust emission from the Planck 353, 545, and 857 GHz, and IRAS 100 \u3bcm data. Using a modified blackbody fit to the data we present all-sky maps of the dust optical depth, temperature, and spectral index over the 353-3000 GHz range. This model is a good representation of the IRAS and Planck data at 5\u2032 between 353 and 3000 GHz (850 and 100 \u3bcm). It shows variations of the order of 30% compared with the widely-used model of Finkbeiner, Davis, and Schlegel. The Planck data allow us to estimate the dust temperature uniformly over the whole sky, down to an angular resolution of 5\u2032, providing an improved estimate of the dust optical depth compared to previous all-sky dust model, especially in high-contrast molecular regions where the dust temperature varies strongly at small scales in response to dust evolution, extinction, and/or local production of heating photons. An increase of the dust opacity at 353 GHz, \u3c4353/NH, from the diffuse to the denser interstellar medium (ISM) is reported. It is associated with a decrease in the observed dust temperature, Tobs, that could be due at least in part to the increased dust opacity. We also report an excess of dust emission at H i column densities lower than 1020 cm-2 that could be the signature of dust in the warm ionized medium. In the diffuse ISM at high Galactic latitude, we report an anticorrelation between \u3c4353/NH and Tobs while the dust specific luminosity, i.e., the total dust emission integrated over frequency (the radiance) per hydrogen atom, stays about constant, confirming one of the Planck Early Results obtained on selected fields. This effect is compatible with the view that, in the diffuse ISM, Tobs responds to spatial variations of the dust opacity, due to variations of dust properties, in addition to (small) variations of the radiation field strength. The implication is that in the diffuse high-latitude ISM \u3c4353 is not as reliable a tracer of dust column density as we conclude it is in molecular clouds where the correlation of \u3c4353 with dust extinction estimated using colour excess measurements on stars is strong. To estimate Galactic E(B-V) in extragalactic fields at high latitude we develop a new method based on the thermal dust radiance, instead of the dust optical depth, calibrated to E(B-V) using reddening measurements of quasars deduced from Sloan Digital Sky Survey data. \ua9 2014 ESO

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure