On the force of V2 declaratives

This paper discusses a variant of German V2 declaratives sharing properties with both subordinate relative clauses and main clauses. I argue that modal subordination failure helps decide between two rivaling accounts for this construction. Thus, a hypotactic analysis involving syntactic variable sharing must be preferred over parataxis plus anaphora resolution. The scopal behavior of the construction will be derived from its 'proto-assertional force,' which it shares with similar 'embedded root' constructions

International Research Project on Job Retention and Return to Work Strategies for Disabled Workers: Germany

[Excerpt] The International Research Project on Job Retention and Return to Work Strategies for Disabled Workers is an initiative of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Global Applied Research and Information Network on Employment and Training (GLADNET). It reflects ILO and GLADNET joint aims of establishing a base for cross-national research and strengthening links between research analysis and policy reform in the field of employment of disabled people. The Project is a response to a combination of developments which highlight the need for more effective policies and practices in support of workers whose prospects of remaining in employment are jeopardised by work injury, illness or disability. Persons with disabilities are increasingly claiming rights to stay in work as well as to access employment. Pressures on state budgets, the rising costs of compensation claims and disability benefits, and changes in the structure of the labour market are strengthening policies in favour of job retention and return to work. Enterprises are developing their own strategies to minimise the costs of disability and to retain valued employees. Overall, the balance of responsibility is shifting from the state to the enterprise. Policies and practices to prevent disabled workers from leaving work unnecessarily, and to facilitate rapid return to employment if job loss cannot be prevented, are recent developments in many countries. The cross-national exchange of information on initiatives and their effects is limited. The first aim of this Project has been to gather information about what has been attempted, by whom, for what purposes, in which contexts and to what effects. The second, more ambitious, aim, is to examine the interaction between the various policies and practices, identify dysfunctions, and work towards more coherent and cost-effective strategies for job retention and return to work which might be applied in different national systems. The ultimate objective is to identify strategies which can be put into effect in the workplace

General--to--Specific Reductions of Vector Autoregressive Processes

Unrestricted reduced form vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics since Sims (1980) critique of traditional macroeconometric modeling. They are however subjected to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper we propose general-to-specific reductions of VAR models and consider computer-automated model selection algorithms embodied in PcGets (see Krolzig and Hendry, 2000) for doing so. Starting from the unrestricted VAR, standard testing procedures eliminate statistically-insignificant variables, with diagnostic tests checking the validity of reductions, ensuring a congruent final selection. Since jointly selecting and diagnostic testing eludes theoretical analysis, we evaluate the proposed strategy by simulation. The Monte Carlo experiments show that PcGets recovers the DGP specification from a large unrestricted VAR model with size and power close to commencing from the DGP itself. The application of the proposed reduction strategy to a US monetary system demonstrates the feasibility of PcGets for the analysis of large macroeconomic data sets.Econometric methodology, Model selection, Vector autoregression, Data mining.

New results on the influence of climate on the distribution of population and economic activity

This paper applies G-Econ+, an updated version of the G-Econ database by Nordhaus, to analyze the influence of climatic and geographic factors on the geographic distribution of population and economic activity. I discuss options for improved treatment of several statistical problems associated with G-Econ, which are not addressed adequately in the original G-Econ analysis. Reanalysis of key results from the original G-Econ analysis corrects some surprising results therein. Extensive sensitivity analysis determines the robustness of the relationship between climatic factors and economic activity across alternative central estimators. Further analysis assesses revealed climatic preferences of population, the effects of climate parameters on different quantiles of economic variables, and synergies between temperature and precipitation. I find that population density has a much stronger influence on output density than output per capita. Furthermore, least developed countries are located in a climatic zone where all indicators of economic activity decline with increasing temperature.Climate; macroeconomics; population; cross-sectional analysis; G-Econ

Germany as an emerging archipelago economy: On some less obvious implications of corporate takeovers and mergers

Übernahme, Räumliche Verteilung, Deutschland, Takeover, Spatial distribution, Germany

Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures

That econometric methodology remains in dispute partly reflects the lack of clear evidence on alternative approaches. This paper reconsiders econometric model selection from a computer-automation perspective, focusing on general-to-specific reduction approaches, as embodied in the program PcGets (general-to-specific). Starting from a general linear, dynamic statistical model, which captures the essential data characteristics, standard testing procedures are applied to eliminate statistically-insignificant variables, using diagnostic tests to check the validity of the reductions, ensuring a congruent final model. As the joint issue of variable selection and diagnostic testing eludes most attempts at theoretical analysis, a simulation-based analysis of modelling strategies is presented. The results of the Monte Carlo experiments cohere with the established theory: PcGets recovers the DGP specification with remarkable accuracy. Empirical size and power of PcGets are close to what one would expect if the DGP were known.

Global maps of climate change impacts on the favourability for human habitation and economic activity

This paper analyzes the statistical relationship between climatic factors and the global distribution of population and economic activity. Building on this analysis, a new method is developed for assessing geographically explicit impacts of climate change on the suitability of regions for human habitation and economic activity. This method combines information about differences in the conditional distributions of population density and economic activity across climate categories with climate change projections from an ensemble of general circulation models. In contrast to other cross-sectional analyses of the economic impacts of climate change, the method applied here does not require specific assumptions about the functional form of the relationship between climatic and non-climatic factors on the one hand, and population density and economic activity on the other. The results indicate that climate change will improve the habitability of some scarcely populated regions, in particular in Canada, Scandinavia, Russia, Mongolia, northern China, Tibet, and parts of Central Asia, but it will impair the habitability of many densely populated regions in the eastern USA, southern Europe, northern and southern Africa, eastern China, and parts of Australia. Most parts of India, South-East Asia and Oceania, Central America and northern South America, the Sahara and the Sahel are projected to experience climatic conditions during this century that have no geographical analogue in the present climate. Hence, a large majority of the world’s population is living in regions whose habitability is either projected to decrease or that are projected to experience globally unprecedented climate conditions within this century under a business-as-usual emissions scenario.Climate change; macroeconomics; population; cross-sectional analysis