Regulatory solvency prediction in property-liability insurance: risk-based capital, audit ratios, and cash flow simulation

This paper analyzes the accuracy of the principal models used by U.S. insurance regulators to predict insolvencies in the property-liability insurance industry and compares these models with a relatively new solvency testing approach--cash flow simulation. Specifically, we compare the risk-based capital (RBC) system introduced by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) in 1994, the FAST (Financial Analysis and Surveillance Tracking) audit ratio system used by the NAIC, and a cash flow simulation model developed by the authors. Both the RBC and FAST systems are static, ratio-based approaches to solvency testing, whereas the cash flow simulation model implements dynamic financial analysis. Logistic regression analysis is used to test the models for a large sample of solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers, using data from the years 1990-1992 to predict insolvencies over three-year prediction horizons. We find that the FAST system dominates RBC as a static method for predicting insurer insolvencies. Further, we find the cash flow simulation variables add significant explanatory power to the regressions and lead to more accurate solvency prediction than the ratio-based models taken alone.Insurance industry

Acrylamide formation in potato products

End of Project ReportAcrylamide, a substance classified as a potential carcinogen, occurs in heated starchy foods at concentrations many times in excess of levels permitted in drinking water. Early surveys indicated that levels of acrylamide in potato products such as French fries and potato crisps were the highest of the foodstuffs investigated. The present project addressed this issue by determining levels of acrylamide precursors (asparagine and reducing sugars) in raw potatoes and levels of acrylamide in (i) potato products from different storage regimes, (ii) spot-sampled potatoes purchased from a local supermarket, (iii) samples that received pre-treatments and were fried at different temperatures and (iv) French fries reheated in different ovens.A risk assessment of the estimated acrylamide intake from potato products for various cohorts of the Irish population was also conducted

Happy like Profilers: Gordon Burn, Modernity and Serial Killing

Happy like Profilers: Gordon Burn, modernity and serial killing Haggerty (2009) has outlined the ways, in which, “serial killers” can be seen as a product of modernity. In particular, he highlights the ways, in which, a symbiotic relationship has developed between the media and “serial killers”. A significant feature in this new firmament is the psychological profiler. From Cracker onwards, the psychological profiler has become a key feature of the TV crime drama. As Dowleer et al ( 2006) note the line between reporting crime and crime as entertainment is a very blurred one. The viewer is just as likely to come across a “psychological profile” on a “news” programme such as Crimewatch as in a TV drama.Trevor Hardy was convicted of the brutal murder of three young women Janet Stewart (15), Wanda Skalia (18) and Sharon Mosoph (17) in 1977. He has been given a whole life tariff so will never be released. Despite this, Wilson et al (2010) highlight the fact that the case is not that well-known and consider the reasons for this. This paper argues that this approach is an extension of the medical- psychological discourse, which concentrates on generating a comforting taxonomy of serial killers. It goes on to argue that this approach marginalises the suffering of the victims and the cataclysmic impact that these events have on the lives of their loved ones. The novelist, Gordon Burn, has explored the nature of modern celebrity. He has also examined in extensive details the environments that produced Peter Sutcliffe (Somebody’s Husband, Somebody’s Son) and the Wests (Happy like Murderers). As an alternative to the profiler approach, which focuses on the perpetrator and marignalises victims and their families, the work of Burn – in particular his novel Alma Cogan is examined in depth. This disturbing novel challenges the ways, in which, celebrity is constructed. By so doing, it forces the reader to confront not only the full brutality of sexual violence but also their own complicity in the “serial killing industry”

Lost in translation? Theory, policy and practice in systems-based environmental approaches to obesity prevention in the Healthy Towns programme in England.

This paper explores how system-wide approaches to obesity prevention were 'theorised' and translated into practice in the 'Healthy Towns' programme implemented in nine areas in England. Semi-structured interviews with 20 informants, purposively selected to represent national and local programme development, management and delivery were undertaken. Results suggest that informants articulated a theoretical understanding of a system-wide approach to obesity prevention, but simplifying this complex task in the context of uncertainty over programme aims and objectives, and absence of a clear direction from the central government, resulted in local programmes relying on traditional multi-component approaches to programme delivery. The development of clear, practical guidance on implementation should form a central part of future system-wide approaches to obesity prevention

Bilingual poetry: expanding the cognitive and cultural dimensions of children’s learning

Stories and poetry have long been considered a resource for the language and literacy development of bilingual children, particularly if they can work with texts in both mother tongue and English. This paper demonstrates that bilingual learning is also beneficial for second and third generation children whose English is often stronger than their mother tongue. Presenting data from an action research project in East London primary schools, we show how children investigated metaphor and cultural content in a Bengali lullaby, clarifying concepts through dialogue with their parents. Comparison with a lullaby in English from North America generated additional ideas concerning different cultural values. The learning process enabled children to use their bilingual skills and draw on different aspects of their bicultural identities. Finally, we explain how bilingual poetry can be used to stimulate learning in a multilingual classroom context, through the example of a whole-class lesson based around Bengali and English lullabies

The JAM Suite - a Voice-enabled Network-based Virtual Band Application

The Java Audio Music-suite (J.A.M. for short) is a suite of applications that provides tools and audio processing utilities for musicians. It’s core functionality includes a means whereby musicians who are geographically dispersed can play music together. An additional utility determines the actual musical notes from a piece of music using Fourier Transform techniques. All of these functions are complemented by a voiceenabled, animated help agent that takes in voice commands using speech recognition and reports errors via text-to-speech technology

Systematicity and The Cognition of Structured Domain

The current debate over what conditions a scheme of mental representation needs to satisfy in order to explain the systematicity of thought is characterized in such a way that (contrary to Fodor, Pylyshyn, and McLaughhn) any complete representational scheme (whether classical or non-classical) can explain the systematicity of thought. Though FPM might reply that non-classical schemes only satisfy these conditions in an unprincipled fashion, this shifts the discussion to less empirical considerations. Recasting the debate, we show that FPM can maintain their objection of unprincipledness only at the price of representational pluralism. Our thesis is that one can maintain representational monism if one uses what we call structured encodings. This will be accomplished by spelling out a representational taxonomy that makes evident what properties need obtain for a given representational scheme to exhibit systematicity effects

Correlates of English local government use of the planning system to regulate hot food takeaway outlets: a cross-sectional analysis

Background: Greater neighbourhood takeaway food outlet access has been associated with increased takeaway food consumption and higher body weight. National planning guidelines in England suggest that urban planning could promote healthier food environments through takeaway food outlet regulation, for example by restricting the proliferation of outlets near schools. It is unknown how geographically widespread this approach is, or local characteristics associated with its use. We aimed to address these knowledge gaps. Methods: We used data from a complete review of planning policy documents adopted by local government areas in England (n = 325), which contained policies for the purpose of takeaway food outlet regulation. This review classified local government area planning policies as having a health (diet or obesity) or non-health focus. We explored geographical clustering of similar planning policies using spatial statistics. We used multinomial logistic regression models to investigate whether the odds of planning policy adoption varied according to local characteristics, for example the proportion of children with excess weight or the current number of takeaway food outlets. Results: We observed clusters of local government areas with similar adopted planning policies in the North East, North West, and Greater London regions of England. In unadjusted logistic regression models, compared to local government areas with the lowest, those with highest proportion of 10–11 year olds with excess weight (OR: 25.31; 95% CI: 6.74, 94.96), and takeaway food outlet number (OR: 54.00; 95% CI: 6.17, 472.41), were more likely to have a health-focused planning policy, than none. In models adjusted for deprivation, relationships for excess weight metrics were attenuated. Compared to local government areas with the lowest, those with the highest takeaway food outlet number remained more likely to have a health-focused planning policy, than none (OR: 16.98; 95% CI: 1.44, 199.04). When local government areas were under Labour political control, predominantly urban, and when they had more geographically proximal and statistically similar areas in the same planning policy status category, they were also more likely to have health-focused planning policies. Conclusions: Planning policies for the purpose of takeaway food outlet regulation with a health focus were more likely in areas with greater numbers of takeaway food outlets and higher proportions of children with excess weight. Other characteristics including Labour political control, greater deprivation and urbanisation, were associated with planning policy adoption, as were the actions of similar and nearby local government areas. Further research should engage with local policymakers to explore the drivers underpinning use of this approach

Using spatial equity analysis in the process evaluation of environmental interventions to tackle obesity: the healthy towns programme in England.

INTRODUCTION: Process evaluations of environmental public health interventions tend not to consider issues of spatial equity in programme delivery. However, an intervention is unlikely to be effective if it is not accessible to those in need. Methods are required to enable these considerations to be integrated into evaluations. Using the Healthy Towns programme in England, we demonstrate the potential of spatial equity analysis in the evaluation of environmental interventions for diet and physical activity, examining whether the programme was delivered to those in greatest need. METHODS: Locations of new physical infrastructure, such as cycle lanes, gyms and allotments, were mapped using a geographic information system. A targeting ratio was computed to indicate how well-located the infrastructure was in relation to those at whom it was specifically aimed, as detailed in the relevant project documentation, as well as to generally disadvantaged populations defined in terms of U.K. Census data on deprivation, age and ethnicity. Differences in targeting were examined using Kruskal-Wallis and t-tests. RESULTS: The 183 separate intervention components identified were generally well located, with estimated targeting ratios above unity for all population groups of need, except for black and ethnic minorities and children aged 5-19 years. There was no evidence that clustering of population groups influenced targeting, or that trade-offs existed when components were specifically targeted at more than one group. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis of spatial equity is a valuable initial stage in assessing the provision of environmental interventions. The Healthy Towns programme can be described as well targeted in that interventions were for the most part located near populations of need.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Governance barriers to sustainable energy transitions – Assessing Ireland's capacity towards marine energy futures

Marine energies (ME), including offshore hydcrocarbons along with marine renewable energies (MRE), such as offshore wind, wave and tidal energy, are increasingly important in the future energy mix of many nations. We observe that ME governance is complex, as development offshore involves engagement and may often result in conflict. This paper examines the Irish case, where offshore gas and oil remain relatively undeveloped, and yet have provoked extensive controversy. Moreover, Ireland exhibits very ambitious plans for MRE developments. Against a background, where ME development seems to have stalled, the objective of the paper is to analyse the Irish governance setup and its capacity to deliver ME and whether the current system is equipped to enable transition to MREs. Current governance systems lack efficacy in terms of policy integration and enforcement, government oversight, and public trust due to past failures. Although, management approaches have been developed to address some of the barriers, domains such as policy/regulation, industry development and public engagement are disconnected. Results: presented may not simply be generalised, as each country context is different. An analysis of examples with similar issues must focus on studying the context of the governance setup and balances of power across domains