Super Residual Circulation : A New Perspective on Ocean Vertical Heat Transport

Ocean circulation and mixing regulate Earth's climate by moving heat vertically within the ocean. We present a new formalism to diagnose the role of ocean circulation and diabatic processes in setting vertical heat transport in ocean models. In this formalism we use temperature tendencies, rather than explicit vertical velocities, to diagnose circulation. Using quasi-steady-state simulations from the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Ocean Model (ACCESS-OM2), we diagnose a diathermal overturning circulation in temperature-depth space. Furthermore, projection of tendencies due to diabatic processes onto this coordinate permits us to represent these as apparent overturning circulations. Our framework permits us to extend the concept of "Super Residual Transport,'' which combines mean and eddy advection terms with subgridscale isopycnal mixing due to mesoscale eddies but excludes small-scale threedimensional turbulent mixing effect, to construct a new overturning circulation-the "Super Residual Circulation'' (SRC). We find that in the coarse-resolution version of ACCESS-OM2 (nominally 1 degrees horizontal resolution) the SRC is dominated by an similar to 11-Sv (1 Sv [10(6) m(3) s(-1)) circulation that transports heat upward. The SRC's upward heat transport is;2 times as large in a finer-horizontal-resolution (0.1 degrees) version of ACCESS, suggesting that a differing balance of super-residual and parameterized small-scale processes may emerge as eddies are resolved. Our analysis adds new insight into superresidual processes, because the SRC elucidates the pathways in temperature and depth space along which water mass transformation occurs.Peer reviewe

Subpolar Southern Ocean response to changes in the surface momentum, heat, and freshwater fluxes under 2xCO2

The Antarctic subpolar Southern Ocean (sSO) has fundamental climate importance. Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) originates in the sSO and supplies the lower limb of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), occupying 36% of ocean volume. Climate models struggle to represent continental shelf processes that form AABW. We explore sources of persistent model biases by examining response of the sSO to perturbations in surface forcing in a global ocean–sea ice model (ACCESS-OM2) that forms AABW both on shelf and in open ocean. The sSO response to individual and combined perturbations of surface heat, freshwater, and momentum fluxes follows the WCRP CMIP6 FAFMIP-protocol. Wind perturbation (i.e., a poleward shift and intensification of the westerlies) is dominant, enhancing AABW formation and accelerating the global MOC. This occurs through upwelling of warm waters and inhibition of sea ice growth during winter, which triggers large open water polynya (OWP) events with associated deep convection. These events occur in the Weddell and Ross Seas and their variability is associated with availability of heat at midocean depths. These OWPs cease when the heat reservoir is depleted. Effects of surface warming and freshening only partially compensate changes from increasing winds on ocean stratification and depletion of AABW formation. These results indicate that overly convective models, such ACCESS-OM2, can respond to CO2-perturbed scenarios by forming too much AABW in OWP, which might not hold in models without OWPs. This might contribute to the large intermodel spread thermosteric sea level projections, being relevant to the interpretation of future projections by current climate models.Peer reviewe

Positive mood on the day of influenza vaccination predicts vaccine effectiveness: a prospective observational cohort study

Influenza vaccination is estimated to only be effective in 17–53% of older adults. Multiple patient behaviors and psychological factors have been shown to act as ‘immune modulators’ sufficient to influence vaccination outcomes. However, the relative importance of such factors is unknown as they have typically been examined in isolation. The objective of the present study was to explore the effects of multiple behavioral (physical activity, nutrition, sleep) and psychological influences (stress, positive mood, negative mood) on the effectiveness of the immune response to influenza vaccination in the elderly. A prospective, diary-based longitudinal observational cohort study was conducted. One hundred and thirty-eight community-dwelling older adults (65–85 years) who received the 2014/15 influenza vaccination completed repeated psycho-behavioral measures over the two weeks prior, and four weeks following influenza vaccination. IgG responses to vaccination were measured via antigen microarray and seroprotection via hemagglutination inhibition assays at 4 and 16 weeks post-vaccination. High pre-vaccination seroprotection levels were observed for H3N2 and B viral strains. Positive mood on the day of vaccination was a significant predictor of H1N1 seroprotection at 16 weeks post-vaccination and IgG responses to vaccination at 4 and 16 weeks post-vaccination, controlling for age and gender. Positive mood across the 6-week observation period was also significantly associated with post-vaccination H1N1 seroprotection and IgG responses to vaccination at 16 weeks post-vaccination, but in regression models the proportion of variance explained was lower than for positive mood on the day of vaccination alone. No other factors were found to significantly predict antibody responses to vaccination. Greater positive mood in older adults, particularly on the day of vaccination, is associated with enhanced responses to vaccination

Post-marital residence patterns show lineage-specific evolution

Where a newly-married couple lives, termed post marital residence, varies cross-culturally and changes over time. While many factors have been proposed as drivers of this change, among them general features of human societies like warfare, migration and gendered division of subsistence labour, little is known about whether changes in residence patterns exhibit global regularities. Here, we study ethnographic observations of post-marital residence in societies from five large language families (Austronesian, Bantu, Indo-European, Pama-Nyungan and Uto-Aztecan), encompassing 371 ethnolinguistic groups ranging widely in local ecologies and lifeways, and covering over half the world?s population and geographical area. We apply Bayesian comparative methods to test the hypothesis that post-marital residence patterns have evolved in similar ways across different geographical regions. By reconstructing past post-marital residence states, we compare transition rates and models of evolution across groups, while integrating the historical descent relationships of human societies. We find that each language family possesses its own best fitting model, demonstrating that the mode and pace of post-marital residence evolution is lineage-specific rather than global

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (zeta) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a zeta projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of zeta change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and zeta. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the zeta change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic zeta change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.Peer reviewe

Post-marital residence patterns show lineage-specific evolution

Where a newly-married couple lives, termed post-marital residence, varies cross-culturally and changes over time. While many factors have been proposed as drivers of this change, among them general features of human societies like warfare, migration and gendered division of subsistence labour, little is known about whether changes in residence patterns exhibit global regularities. Here, we study ethnographic observations of post-marital residence in societies from five large language families (Austronesian, Bantu, Indo-European, Pama-Nyungan and Uto-Aztecan), encompassing 371 ethnolinguistic groups ranging widely in local ecologies and lifeways, and covering over half the worlds population and geographical area. We apply Bayesian comparative methods to test the hypothesis that post-marital residence patterns have evolved in similar ways across different geographical regions. By reconstructing past post-marital residence states, we compare transition rates and models of evolution across groups, while integrating the historical descent relationships of human societies. We find that each language family possesses its own best fitting model, demonstrating that the mode and pace of post-marital residence evolution is lineage-specific rather than global.We thank Laura Fortunato (Institute of Cognitive and Evolutionary Anthropology, University of Oxford, UK) and Kit Opie (Department of Anthropology, University College London, UK) for access to analyses from their published work; Lyle Campbell (Department of Linguistics, University of Hawai’i Manoa, USA) and Jane Hill (School of Anthropology, University of Arizona, USA) for cognancy coding in the Uto-Aztecan dataset; and Eilis Donnelly (Victoria University of Wellington) for assistance with summarizing the ethnographic literature of Uto-Aztecan and Pama-Nyungan speakers. This research was supported by the Royal Society of New Zealand through a Rutherford Fellowship (RDF-10-MAU-001) to M.P.C., by an Allan Wilson Centre for Molecular Ecology and Evolution grant to M.P.C. and R.G., and by an Alexander von Humboldt Stiftung fellowship to M.P.C. The Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History funded J.C.M. to attend its 2016 Spring School on quantitative methods for studying linguistic and cultural evolution. S.M. and M.P.C. are partially supported by the New Zealand Centre of Research Excellence Te Pūnaha Matatini. R.M.R. was supported by a grant from the European Union Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement No 644055 [ALIGNED, http://aligned-project.eu]). F.M.J. received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 639291, Starting Grant VARIKIN), and was supported by a Leverhulme Research Fellowship (47690)

Challenges and Prospects in Ocean Circulation Models

We revisit the challenges and prospects for ocean circulation models following Griffies et al. (2010). Over the past decade, ocean circulation models evolved through improved understanding, numerics, spatial discretization, grid configurations, parameterizations, data assimilation, environmental monitoring, and process-level observations and modeling. Important large scale applications over the last decade are simulations of the Southern Ocean, the Meridional Overturning Circulation and its variability, and regional sea level change. Submesoscale variability is now routinely resolved in process models and permitted in a few global models, and submesoscale effects are parameterized in most global models. The scales where nonhydrostatic effects become important are beginning to be resolved in regional and process models. Coupling to sea ice, ice shelves, and high-resolution atmospheric models has stimulated new ideas and driven improvements in numerics. Observations have provided insight into turbulence and mixing around the globe and its consequences are assessed through perturbed physics models. Relatedly, parameterizations of the mixing and overturning processes in boundary layers and the ocean interior have improved. New diagnostics being used for evaluating models alongside present and novel observations are briefly referenced. The overall goal is summarizing new developments in ocean modeling, including: how new and existing observations can be used, what modeling challenges remain, and how simulations can be used to support observations

Challenges and Prospects in Ocean Circulation Models

We revisit the challenges and prospects for ocean circulation models following Griffies et al. (2010). Over the past decade, ocean circulation models evolved through improved understanding, numerics, spatial discretization, grid configurations, parameterizations, data assimilation, environmental monitoring, and process-level observations and modeling. Important large scale applications over the last decade are simulations of the Southern Ocean, the Meridional Overturning Circulation and its variability, and regional sea level change. Submesoscale variability is now routinely resolved in process models and permitted in a few global models, and submesoscale effects are parameterized in most global models. The scales where nonhydrostatic effects become important are beginning to be resolved in regional and process models. Coupling to sea ice, ice shelves, and high-resolution atmospheric models has stimulated new ideas and driven improvements in numerics. Observations have provided insight into turbulence and mixing around the globe and its consequences are assessed through perturbed physics models. Relatedly, parameterizations of the mixing and overturning processes in boundary layers and the ocean interior have improved. New diagnostics being used for evaluating models alongside present and novel observations are briefly referenced. The overall goal is summarizing new developments in ocean modeling, including: how new and existing observations can be used, what modeling challenges remain, and how simulations can be used to support observations.Peer reviewe

OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project

The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is an endorsed project in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses CMIP6 science questions, investigating the origins and consequences of systematic model biases. It does so by providing a framework for evaluating (including assessment of systematic biases), understanding, and improving ocean, sea-ice, tracer, and biogeochemical components of climate and earth system models contributing to CMIP6. Among the WCRP Grand Challenges in climate science (GCs), OMIP primarily contributes to the regional sea level change and near-term (climate/decadal) prediction GCs. OMIP provides (a) an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing; and (b) a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) detailing methods for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II (Interannual Forcing) have become the standard methods to evaluate global ocean/sea-ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP, HighResMIP (High Resolution MIP), as well as the ocean/sea-ice OMIP simulations