Reliable Classifier to Differentiate Primary and Secondary Acute Dengue Infection Based on IgG ELISA

Dengue virus infection causes a wide spectrum of illness, ranging from sub-clinical to severe disease. Severe dengue is associated with sequential viral infections. A strict definition of primary versus secondary dengue infections requires a combination of several tests performed at different stages of the disease, which is not practical.We developed a simple method to classify dengue infections as primary or secondary based on the levels of dengue-specific IgG. A group of 109 dengue infection patients were classified as having primary or secondary dengue infection on the basis of a strict combination of results from assays of antigen-specific IgM and IgG, isolation of virus and detection of the viral genome by PCR tests performed on multiple samples, collected from each patient over a period of 30 days. The dengue-specific IgG levels of all samples from 59 of the patients were analyzed by linear discriminant analysis (LDA), and one- and two-dimensional classifiers were designed. The one-dimensional classifier was estimated by bolstered resubstitution error estimation to have 75.1% sensitivity and 92.5% specificity. The two-dimensional classifier was designed by taking also into consideration the number of days after the onset of symptoms, with an estimated sensitivity and specificity of 91.64% and 92.46%. The performance of the two-dimensional classifier was validated using an independent test set of standard samples from the remaining 50 patients. The classifications of the independent set of samples determined by the two-dimensional classifiers were further validated by comparing with two other dengue classification methods: hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay and an in-house anti-dengue IgG-capture ELISA method. The decisions made with the two-dimensional classifier were in 100% accordance with the HI assay and 96% with the in-house ELISA.Once acute dengue infection has been determined, a 2-D classifier based on common dengue virus IgG kits can reliably distinguish primary and secondary dengue infections. Software for calculation and validation of the 2-D classifier is made available for download

Alcoholism and Strongyloides stercoralis: Daily Ethanol Ingestion Has a Positive Correlation with the Frequency of Strongyloides Larvae in the Stools

It has been reported that Strongyloides stercoralis infection is more prevalent in chronic alcoholic patients than in non alcoholics living in the same country. In a retrospective study on the prevalence of S. stercoralis infection in a large sample of alcoholic patients, we demonstrate that this prevalence is significantly higher than in non-alcoholic patients admitted at the same hospital. Moreover, the frequency of the parasite was in close relationship with the daily amount of ingested ethanol, even in the absence of liver cirrhosis, reinforcing the idea that chronic alcoholism is associated with increased susceptibility to Strongyloides infection. Beside the bad hygiene profile of alcoholic patients, which explains high risk for acquisition of the parasite, the high prevalence of S. stercoralis in alcoholics may be in relationship with other effects of ethanol on the intestinal motility, steroid metabolism and immune system, which could enhance the chance of autoinfection and the survival and fecundity of females in duodenum. In this way, the number of larvae in the stools is higher in alcoholic patients, increasing the chance of a positive result in a stool examination by sedimentation method

Leprosy control: perspectives & epidemiological and operational aspects

OBJECTIVES: As a starting point, a vast variety of 200 technical papers and documents published during the ten years 1999-2008, from Brazilian and international organizations dedicated to the control of leprosy, was taken. A study was then undertaken to investigate its future evolutive possibilities by employing resources obtained from scenario analyses. DESIGN: The methodological reconstruction in use was of a qualitative nature, based on a bibliographic review and content analysis techniques. The latter were employed in a documental, categorical, contingent, frequency-based format, in compliance with appropriate and pertinent conditions. RESULTS: Nowadays, important elements on epidemiological and operational aspects have been regained, as well as respective perspectives. CONCLUSIONS: A projection is made towards the fact that the maintenance of the disease's present incidence levels constitute economic and sanitary challenges that confront issues ranging from the neoliberal model of global societal organization to specific competences of actions taken by health teams in the field

Marked isotopic variability within and between the Amazon River and marine dissolved black carbon pools

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) contains charcoal byproducts, termed black carbon (BC). To determine the significance of BC as a sink of atmospheric CO2 and reconcile budgets, the sources and fate of this large, slow-cycling and elusive carbon pool must be constrained. The Amazon River is a significant part of global BC cycling because it exports an order of magnitude more DOC, and thus dissolved BC (DBC), than any other river. We report spatially resolved DBC quantity and radiocarbon (Δ14C) measurements, paired with molecular-level characterization of dissolved organic matter from the Amazon River and tributaries during low discharge. The proportion of BC-like polycyclic aromatic structures decreases downstream, but marked spatial variability in abundance and Δ14C values of DBC molecular markers imply dynamic sources and cycling in a manner that is incongruent with bulk DOC. We estimate a flux from the Amazon River of 1.9–2.7 Tg DBC yr−1 that is composed of predominately young DBC, suggesting that loss processes of modern DBC are important

Prevalência e características das feridas em pessoas idosas residentes na comunidade

RESUMO Objetivo Descrever o perfil e as características de idosos com restrição de mobilidade, residentes na comunidade e com presença de lesões de pele. Método Estudo exploratório e descritivo, parte do Estudo SABE – Saúde Bem-estar e Envelhecimento que avaliou a presença de lesões de pele em uma amostra probabilística de idosos residentes no município de São Paulo segundo aspectos sociodemográficos, biomarcadores sanguíneos, condições de saúde e utilização de serviços. A análise utilizou o teste de qui-quadrado com correção de Rao-Scott para amostras complexas com nível de significância de 5%. Resultados No ano de 2010, 20,7% dos idosos com restrição de mobilidade apresentavam lesões na pele em decorrência desse problema. Os locais mais frequentes foram região sacral para ambos os sexos, escapular para mulheres e trocanteriana para homens. Idade mais avançada, multimorbidade e comprometimento funcional foram mais prevalentes entre os idosos com feridas, assim como a maior frequência de cuidado requerido. A disfuncionalidade familiar mostrou-se associada à maior sobrecarga do cuidador que pode refletir na qualidade do cuidado prestado. Observou-se que esses idosos que são prioritários para a atenção domiciliar não a recebem adequadamente. Conclusão A prevalência de lesões de pele em idosos com restrição de mobilidade na comunidade é baixa, no entanto requerem atenção diferenciada e essa não está sendo adequadamente oferecida. A reorganização das políticas e serviços assistenciais mostra-se essencial

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. INTERPRETATION: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700