Implementacao da tecnica de "ensemble prediction" no CPTEC resultados preliminares.

A method for ensemble weather prediction using the CPTEC global model with horizontal spectral resolution of T62 and 28 vertical levels is being implementing at CPTEC. The perturbed initial conditions are generated implementing EOF analysis to the differences between forecasts starting from regular analysis and randomly perturbed analysis. An example of ensemble prediction is shown, as a preliminary study

Efeitos climáticos do metano na atmosfera.

Abstract A vision of the effects and the concentrations of methane in the atmosphere is presented in this study, focusing on its sources and sinks, and on direct and indirect impacts on climate. Methane is an important greenhouse gas and its atmospheric concentration has increased due to anthropogenic sources since the pre-industrial era. The addition of methane to the atmosphere is more effective for the greenhouse effect than the addition of the same mass or number of molecules of carbon dioxide. Methane has a significant impact on atmospheric levels of other atmospheric compounds, as ozone, water vapour and the hydroxyl radical, and the reaction with the latter is the main mechanism for methane removal. Balance between sources and sinks and interactions with other gases are crucial to determine the total radiative effect of methane.Uma visão dos efeitos e concentrações do gás metano na atmosfera é apresentada neste estudo, focando-se nas suas fontes e sumidouros e nos seus impactos diretos e indiretos sobre o clima. O metano é um importante gás de efeito estufa e sua concentração na atmosfera tem aumentado devido à ação de fontes antropogênicas desde a era pré-industrial. A adição de metano na atmosfera é mais efetiva para o efeito estufa do que a adição de uma mesma quantidade em massa ou número de moléculas de dióxido de carbono. O metano tem um impacto significativo sobre os níveis de outros componentes atmosféricos, como o ozônio, o vapor de água e o radical hidroxila, sendo a reação com este último o principal mecanismo de remoção do metano da atmosfera. O balanço entre as fontes e sumidouros e as interações do metano com outros gases na atmosfera são fundamentais na determinação do efeito radiativo total do metano

Previsão de tempo por conjuntos para a região nordeste do Brasil

A técnica de previsão de tempo por conjuntos ("ensemble") é implementada para a região Nordeste do Brasil utilizando-se o modelo regional RAMS, inicializado com dados do modelo de circulação geral atmosférico (MCGA) do CPTEC. Os métodos empregados para geração dos conjuntos de previsão consistem na utilização de diferentes parametrizações físicas e esquemas de relaxamento newtoniano para cada rodada do modelo (ENSFI), e na perturbação das condições iniciais (ENSCI e ENSCI-FRONT). Esses métodos são avaliados utilizando-se análises do MCGA e dados das plataformas de coletas de dados localizadas no estado do Ceará. As perturbações nas condições iniciais para o ENSCI e ENSCI-FRONT são geradas com base no método "lagged-average forescasting" a partir de execuções anteriores do modelo válidas para o horário e região de estudo, e incluídas nas componentes horizontais do vento de modo a apresentarem um desvio padrão de 5 m.s-1. O ENSCI-FRONT inclui perturbações, também nas fronteiras do modelo regional para lidar com uma rápida diminuição do espalhamento dos membros com o prazo de previsão encontrada com perturbações apenas nas condições iniciais. Os resultados mostram que as médias das previsões para o ENSCI-FRONT e ENSFI apresentam melhores resultados do que a previsão não-perturbada para a maioria das grandezas físicas analisadas

Weather forecasts and climate prediction at CPTEC

Numerical weather forecasts and climate predictions have been performed at CPTEC since 1995 using the spectral numerical global circulation model, CPTEC/COLA AGCM with T62L28 resolution. Due to the chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere, it is desirable that a prediction be a result of several integrations with different initial conditions. The technique of ensemble prediction reduces the impact of the initial condition uncertainty on the final result. In climate prediction the initial sates are given by conditions of consecutive days. However, in weather forecast there are several methods to generate the initial conditions which must represent the initial uncertainty of the analysis field. In this paper the ensemble prediction system used at CPTEC is shown for both weather forecast and climate prediction.Pages: on lin

Verificação das previsões de tempo para precipitação usando ensemble regional para o estado do Ceará em 2009 Verification of rainfall weather forecasts using regional ensemble for Ceará state in 2009

Este artigo apresenta um estudo de verificação das previsões de chuva de um sistema de previsão do tempo por ensemble regional. O conjunto é composto por seis membros, dos quais quatro utilizam o modelo RAMS 6.0 e dois usam o WRF 3.1, inicializados com dados dos modelos globais do CPTEC ou GFS e diferentes parametrizações de convecção. A verificação foca nas previsões de chuva de 24, 48 e 72 horas e nos limiares de precipitação de 1mm, 5mm e 10mm sobre o Estado do Ceará. Os membros do ensemble apresentaram resultados superiores à persistência em todo o domínio avaliado. O modelo RAMS apresenta maior índice de acerto, principalmente no litoral norte do Estado, porém um maior falso alarme em comparação com o modelo WRF. O sistema de previsão de chuva diminui sua qualidade com o aumento dos horizontes e a intensidade da chuva que se quer prever.This work presents a verification study of rainfall forecast by a regional model ensemble prediction system. The ensemble is formed by six members; four of them using RAMS 6.0, and two using WRF 3.1, all initialized by CPTEC or GFS general circulation model data and making use of different convection parameterizations. The verification focuses on rainfall forecasts for 24, 48 and 72 hours and rainfall thresholds of 1 mm, 5 mm and 10 mm over the Ceará State. All ensemble members have better skill than persistence in the entire verification domain. RAMS shows a larger accuracy, especially at the northern coast of Ceará, but gives also a larger false alarm ratio than WRF model. The quality of the rainfall forecasts system decreases as either, the rainfall intensity or the forecast horizon time increase

Extracellular Vesicles from Adipose-Derived Mesenchymal Stem/Stromal Cells Accelerate Migration and Activate AKT Pathway in Human Keratinocytes and Fibroblasts Independently of miR-205 Activity

Mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSCs) are promising tools in cell therapy. They secrete extracellular vesicles (EVs) that carry different classes of molecules that can promote skin repair, but the mechanisms are poorly understood. Skin wound healing is a complex process that requires the activity of several signaling pathways and cell types, including keratinocytes and fibroblasts. In this study, we explored whether adipose tissue MSC-derived EVs could accelerate migration and proliferation of keratinocytes and fibroblasts, activate the AKT pathway, and promote wound healing in vivo. Furthermore, we evaluated if EV effects are miR-205 dependent. We found that MSC EVs had an average diameter of 135 nm. Keratinocytes and fibroblasts exposed to EVs exhibited higher levels of proliferation, migration, and AKT activation. Topical administration of EVs accelerated skin wound closure. Knockdown of miR-205 decreased AKT phosphorylation in fibroblasts and keratinocytes, whereas migration was decreased only in keratinocytes. Moreover, knockdown of miR-205 failed to inhibit AKT phosphorylation in fibroblasts and keratinocytes exposed to EVs. About the mechanism of EV effects, we found that incubation with EVs prevented inhibition of AKT activation by miR-205 knockdown, suggesting that EVs activate AKT independently of miR-205. In conclusion, we demonstrated that EVs are a promising tool for wound healing

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern in Vaccination Model City in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

From a country with one of the highest SARS-CoV-2 morbidity and mortality rates, Brazil has implemented one of the most successful vaccination programs. Brazil’s first model city vaccination program was performed by the CoronaVac vaccine (Sinovac Biotech) in the town of Serrana, São Paulo State. To evaluate the vaccination effect on the SARS-CoV-2 molecular dynamics and clinical outcomes, we performed SARS-CoV-2 molecular surveillance on 4375 complete genomes obtained between June 2020 and April 2022 in this location. This study included the period between the initial SARS-CoV-2 introduction and during the vaccination process. We observed that the SARS-CoV-2 substitution dynamics in Serrana followed the viral molecular epidemiology in Brazil, including the initial identification of the ancestral lineages (B.1.1.28 and B.1.1.33) and epidemic waves of variants of concern (VOC) including the Gamma, Delta, and, more recently, Omicron. Most probably, as a result of the immunization campaign, the mortality during the Gamma and Delta VOC was significantly reduced compared to the rest of Brazil, which was also related to lower morbidity. Our phylogenetic analysis revealed the evolutionary history of the SARS-CoV-2 in this location and showed that multiple introduction events have occurred over time. The evaluation of the COVID-19 clinical outcome revealed that most cases were mild (88.9%, 98.1%, 99.1% to Gamma, Delta, and Omicron, respectively) regardless of the infecting VOC. In conclusion, we observed that vaccination was responsible for reducing the death toll rate and related COVID-19 morbidity, especially during the gamma and Delta VOC; however, it does not prevent the rapid substitution rate and morbidity of the Omicron VOC

NEOTROPICAL ALIEN MAMMALS: a data set of occurrence and abundance of alien mammals in the Neotropics

Biological invasion is one of the main threats to native biodiversity. For a species to become invasive, it must be voluntarily or involuntarily introduced by humans into a nonnative habitat. Mammals were among first taxa to be introduced worldwide for game, meat, and labor, yet the number of species introduced in the Neotropics remains unknown. In this data set, we make available occurrence and abundance data on mammal species that (1) transposed a geographical barrier and (2) were voluntarily or involuntarily introduced by humans into the Neotropics. Our data set is composed of 73,738 historical and current georeferenced records on alien mammal species of which around 96% correspond to occurrence data on 77 species belonging to eight orders and 26 families. Data cover 26 continental countries in the Neotropics, ranging from Mexico and its frontier regions (southern Florida and coastal-central Florida in the southeast United States) to Argentina, Paraguay, Chile, and Uruguay, and the 13 countries of Caribbean islands. Our data set also includes neotropical species (e.g., Callithrix sp., Myocastor coypus, Nasua nasua) considered alien in particular areas of Neotropics. The most numerous species in terms of records are from Bos sp. (n = 37,782), Sus scrofa (n = 6,730), and Canis familiaris (n = 10,084); 17 species were represented by only one record (e.g., Syncerus caffer, Cervus timorensis, Cervus unicolor, Canis latrans). Primates have the highest number of species in the data set (n = 20 species), partly because of uncertainties regarding taxonomic identification of the genera Callithrix, which includes the species Callithrix aurita, Callithrix flaviceps, Callithrix geoffroyi, Callithrix jacchus, Callithrix kuhlii, Callithrix penicillata, and their hybrids. This unique data set will be a valuable source of information on invasion risk assessments, biodiversity redistribution and conservation-related research. There are no copyright restrictions. Please cite this data paper when using the data in publications. We also request that researchers and teachers inform us on how they are using the data