23 research outputs found
Infected pancreatic necrosis: outcomes and clinical predictors of mortality. A post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study
: The identification of high-risk patients in the early stages of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is critical, because it could help the clinicians to adopt more effective management strategies. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study to assess the association between clinical risk factors and mortality among adult patients with IPN. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors of mortality. We identified 247 consecutive patients with IPN hospitalised between January 2019 and December 2020. History of uncontrolled arterial hypertension (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.135-15.882; aOR 4.245), qSOFA (p = 0.005; 95% CI 1.359-5.879; aOR 2.828), renal failure (p = 0.022; 95% CI 1.138-5.442; aOR 2.489), and haemodynamic failure (p = 0.018; 95% CI 1.184-5.978; aOR 2.661), were identified as independent predictors of mortality in IPN patients. Cholangitis (p = 0.003; 95% CI 1.598-9.930; aOR 3.983), abdominal compartment syndrome (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.090-6.967; aOR 2.735), and gastrointestinal/intra-abdominal bleeding (p = 0.009; 95% CI 1.286-5.712; aOR 2.710) were independently associated with the risk of mortality. Upfront open surgical necrosectomy was strongly associated with the risk of mortality (p < 0.001; 95% CI 1.912-7.442; aOR 3.772), whereas endoscopic drainage of pancreatic necrosis (p = 0.018; 95% CI 0.138-0.834; aOR 0.339) and enteral nutrition (p = 0.003; 95% CI 0.143-0.716; aOR 0.320) were found as protective factors. Organ failure, acute cholangitis, and upfront open surgical necrosectomy were the most significant predictors of mortality. Our study confirmed that, even in a subgroup of particularly ill patients such as those with IPN, upfront open surgery should be avoided as much as possible. Study protocol registered in ClinicalTrials.Gov (I.D. Number NCT04747990)
Conditional Correlations in the Returns on Oil Companies Stock Prices and Their Determinants
The identification of the forces that drive stock returns and the dynamics of their associated volatilities is a major concern in empirical economics and finance. This analysis is particularly relevant for determining optimal hedging strategies based on whether shocks to the volatilities of returns of oil companies stock prices, relevant stock market indexes and oil spot and futures prices are high or low, and positively or negatively correlated. This paper investigates the correlations of volatilities in the stock price returns and their determinants for the most important integrated oil companies, namely Bp (BP), Chevron-Texaco (CVX), Eni (ENI), Exxon-Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch (RD) and Total-Fina Elf (TFE). We measure the actual co-risk in stock returns and their determinants within and between the different oil companies, using multivariate cointegration techniques in modelling the conditional mean, as well as multivariate GARCH models for the conditional variances. We focus first on the determinants of the market value of each company using the cointegrated VAR/VECM methodology. Then we specifiy the conditional variances of VECM residuals with the Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) multivariate GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990) and the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH model of Engle (2002). The within and between DCC indicate low to high/extreme interdependence between the volatilities of companies' stock returns and the relevant stock market indexes or Brent oil prices
Asymmetric Error Correction Models for the Oil-Gasoline Price Relationship
The existing literature on price asymmetries does not systematically investigate the sensitivity of the empirical results to the choice of a particular econometric specification. This paper fills this gap by providing a detailed comparison of the three most popular models designed to describe asymmetric price behaviour, namely asymmetric ECM, autoregressive threshold ECM and ECM with threshold cointegration. Each model is estimated on a common monthly dataset for the gasoline markets of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK over the period 1985-2003. All models are able to capture the temporal delay in the reaction of retail prices to changes in spot gasoline and crude oil prices, as well as some evidence of asymmetric behaviour. However, the type of market and the number of countries which are characterized by asymmetric oil-gasoline price relations vary across models. The asymmetric ECM yields some evidence of asymmetry for all countries, mainly at the distribution stage. The threshold ECM strongly rejects the null hypothesis of symmetric price behaviour, particularly in the case of France and Germany. Finally, the ECM with threshold cointegration finds long-run asymmetry for each country in the reaction of retail prices to oil price changes
The need for a reassessment of the safe upper limit of selenium in drinking water
Results of recent epidemiologic studies suggest the need to reassess the safe upper limit in drinking water of selenium, a metalloid with both toxicological and nutritional properties. Observational and experimental human studies on health effects of organic selenium compounds consumed through diet or supplements, and of inorganic selenium consumed through drinking water, have shown that human toxicity may occur at much lower levels than previously surmised. Evidence indicates that the chemical form of selenium strongly influences its toxicity, and that its biological activity may differ in different species, emphasizing the importance of the few human studies on health effects of the specific selenium compounds found in drinking water. Epidemiologic studies that investigated the effects of selenate, an inorganic selenium species commonly found in drinking water, together with evidence of toxicity of inorganic selenium at low levels in from in vitro and animal studies, indicate that health risks may occur at exposures below the current European Union and World Health Organization upper limit and guideline of 10 and 40 μg/l, respectively, and suggest reduction to 1 μg/l in order to adequately protect human health. Although few drinking waters are currently known to have selenium concentrations exceeding this level, the public health importance of this issue should not be overlooked, and further epidemiologic research is critically needed in this area
A case-control study of the risk of cutaneous melanoma associated with three selenium exposure indicators
Aims and background. A direct association between exposure to the metalloid sele-nium and risk of cutaneous melanoma has been suggested by some observational and experimental cohort studies, whereas other studies have yielded inconsistent re-sults. Since some of the inconsistencies may be due to exposure misclassification arising from the use of exposure indicators that do not adequately reflect body tissue selenium content or the levels of the biologically relevant species of this metalloid, we examined this issue using multiple indicators of exposure. Methods. We analyzed the relation of selenium exposure with risk of cutaneous melanoma using two different biomarkers, plasma and toenail selenium concentra-tion, and estimated dietary selenium intake in a community-based case-control se-ries (54 cases, 56 controls) from an Italian community. Results. In unmatched and matched logistic regression models as well as nonpara-metric generalized additive models, higher plasma selenium levels were strongly as-sociated with excess disease risk. In contrast, toenail and dietary selenium exhibited little relation with melanoma risk. The pattern of correlation among indicators of ex-posure differed by disease status, with dietary intake associated with plasma seleni-um levels in patients but not in controls. Conclusions. Our data showed that different selenium exposure indicators can yield different inferences about melanoma risk. Although the series was small, our results are consistent with a positive association between circulating levels of selenium and melanoma risk. Further investigation of the exposure classification performance of various selenium biomarkers and of metabolic patterns of the metalloid and of its speciation are needed to help elucidate the relation between selenium exposure and human health
SOTTO LA LENTE DEL GENERE: LA SOCIOLOGIA ITALIANA SI RACCONTA
Da quanto tempo e come è tematizzato il Genere nella riflessione sociologica italiana? All'interno di quali tematiche specifiche? Cosa si potrebbe fare per incrementare il peso della prospettiva gender-sensitive nella riflessione teorica, nelle pratiche di insegnamento universitario e di ricerca?
Questo volume, nato a partire dalla giornata di studi "Genere, Sociologia, Università" organizzata dalla Sezione AIS-Associazione Italiana di Sociologia "Studi di Genere" nel maggio 2013, cerca di rispondere a queste domande attraverso sia un'analisi della situazione universitaria e del rapporto tra processi formativi e mercato del lavoro, sia mediante un inedito confronto che coinvolge l'Associazione Italiana di Sociologia e le sue Sezioni tematiche