Trade Costs and Provincial Heterogeneity in Italy

We test the hypothesis that higher economic development is associated with lower trade costs. Using different methods to control for multilateral resistance, we apply two alternative gravity equations (GE). In the first, we estimate total exports from 103 Italian provinces to 188 countries over the period 1995-2004. In the second, we estimate sectoral exports and then construct provincial trade cost elasticities. Italian provinces are heterogeneous with respect to trade costs. The two versions of GE are qualitatively the same but quantitatively different suggesting that other factors than trade costs are at play, possibly agglomeration externalities.trade costs, heterogeneity, distance, gravity equation

Trade Costs and Economic Development

We test the hypothesis of the circular causality between trade costs and degree of economic development using data on Italian provinces. Using different methods to control for multilateral resistance, we apply a gravity equation to estimate sectoral exports to 188 countries over the period 1995-2004. Provincial trade costs are constructed as the sum of five province-specific elasticities, including distance, adjacency, and common money. We find that Italian provinces are heterogeneous with respect to trade costs. These costs are influenced by lagged provincial per capita income and industrial structure. In turn, trade costs influence future provincial per capita income. This two-way relationship between trade costs and income is broadly consistent with the cumulative causation process emphasized by the New Economic Geography.trade costs, heterogeneity, economic development, gravity equation

Banks’ Great Bailout of 2008-2009

This paper examines government policies aimed at rescuing banks from the effects of the financial crisis of 2007-2009. To delimit the scope of the analysis, we concentrate on the fiscal side of interventions and ignore, by design, the monetary policy reaction to the crisis. The policy response to the subprime crisis started in earnest after Lehman’s failure in mid September 2008, accelerated after February 2009, and has become very large by September 2009. Governments have relied on a portfolio of intervention tools, but the biggest commitments and outlays have been in the form of debt and asset guarantees, while purchases of bad assets have been very limited. We employ event study methodology to estimate the benefits of government interventions on banks and their shareholders. Announcements directed at the banking system as a whole (general) and at specific banks (specific) were priced by the markets as cumulative abnormal rates of return over the selected window periods. General announcements tend to be associated with positive cumulative abnormal returns and specific announcements with negative ones. Our results are also sensitive to the information environment. Specific announcements tend to exert a positive impact on rates of return in the pre-crisis sub-period, when announcements are few and markets have relative confidence in the “normal” information flow. The opposite takes place in the turbulent crisis sub-period when announcements are frequent and markets mistrust the “normal” information flow. These results appear consistent with the observed reluctance of individual institutions to come forth with requests for public assistance.announcements, financial crisis, rescue plans, undercapitalization

Rescuing Banks from the Effects of the Financial Crisis

This paper examines government policies aimed at rescuing banks from the effects of the great financial crisis of 2007-2009. To delimit the scope of the analysis, we concentrate on the fiscal side of interventions and ignore, by design, the monetary policy reaction to the crisis. The policy response to the subprime crisis started in earnest after Lehman’s failure in mid September 2008, accelerated after February 2009, and has become very large by September 2009. Governments have relied on a portfolio of intervention tools, but the biggest commitments and outlays have been in the form of debt and asset guarantees, while purchases of bad assets have been very limited. We employ event study methodology to estimate the benefits of government interventions on banks and their shareholders. Announcements directed at the banking system as a whole (general) and at specific banks (specific) were priced by the markets as cumulative abnormal rates of return over the selected window periods. General announcements tend to be associated with positive cumulative abnormal returns and specific announcements with negative ones. General announcements exert cross-area spillovers but are perceived by the home-country banks as subsidies boosting the competitive advantage of foreign banks. Specific announcements exert spillovers on other banks. Our results are also sensitive to the information environment. Specific announcements tend to exert a positive impact on rates of return in the pre-crisis sub-period, when announcements are few and markets have relative confidence in the "normal" information flow. The opposite takes place in the turbulent crisis sub-period when announcements are the order of the day and markets mistrust the "normal" information flow. These results appear consistent with the observed reluctance of individual institutions to come forth with requests for public assistance.announcements, financial crisis, rescue plans, undercapitalization

The Banking Bailout of the Subprime Crisis: Big Commitments and Small Effects?

This paper examines government policies aimed at rescuing banks from the effects of the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Governments responded to the crisis by guaranteeing bank assets and liabilities and by injecting fresh capital into troubled institutions. We employ event study methodology to estimate the benefits of government interventions on banks. Announcements directed at the banking system as a whole were associated with positive cumulative abnormal returns whereas announcements directed at specific banks with negative ones. The effects of foreign general announcements spilled over across different areas and were perceived by home-country banks as subsidies boosting the competitive advantage of foreign banks. Specific announcements produced effects that were consistent with other banks being crowded out for government resources. Multiple specific announcements exacerbated the extent of banks’ moral hazard. Results were sensitive to the information environment. Findings are consistent with the hypothesis that individual institutions were reluctant to seek public assistance.announcement, bank, event study, financial crisis, rescue plan

HETEROGENEITY IN TRADE COSTS

In this paper, we test the hypothesis that higher economic development is associated with lower trade costs. Using exports from 103 Italian provinces to 188 countries over the period 1995-2004, we estimate distance elasticity, our measure of trade costs, through a gravity equation model of bilateral trade derived by Anderson and van Wincoop (2003). We use different methods to control for multilateral resistance. Results corroborate our hypothesis. We find that heterogeneity of trade costs in Italian provinces is high and that it is negatively associated with economic development.trade costs

Geography of Trade Costs in Italy

We show that economic development is associated with lower trade costs by applying a gravity equation to exports from 103 Italian provinces to 188 countries over the period 1995-2004. Italian provinces are heterogeneous with respect to trade costs.trade costs, distance, heterogeneity, gravity equation

The Gravity Equation in International Economics and International Business Research: A Note

This note discusses methodological issues and practical concerns for international economists and international business scholars who apply the gravity equation in their research. The most important message of the note is that this equation should correct for multilateral resistance factors. We propose a relatively low-cost specification and estimation to implement such correction, which is robust in the presence of various endogeneity effects and non-stationary variables. In the presence of zero-values in the dataset, however, the multilateral specification is best estimated with a Poisson maximum likelihood.gravity equation, international trade, foreign direct investment, methodology