HAZARD-BASED DURATION MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATION TO TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS

A number of transportation-related phenomena deal with a time element that defines the duration until an event's occurrence. Examples include the time that transpires until a trip is made, the length of time a commuter delays a trip departure to avoid traffic congestion, and the time until a newly introduced mode is used. Hazard-based duration models, which have enjoyed widespread use in a number of non-transportation fields (e.g. economics, biostatistics), are an obvious choice for modeling such transportation phenomena. The objective of this paper is to present hazard-based models, in a general way, to individuals interested in transportation problems. In so doing, every effort is made to avoid a jargon-laidened approach that typifies current articles and texts on the subject. It is hoped that such a presentation, along with an overview of existing transportation applications of such models, will lead to an increased use of hazard-based duration models in transportation

Identifying clustering at high redshift through actively star-forming galaxies

Identifying galaxy clustering at high redshift (i.e. z > 1) is essential to our understanding of the current cosmological model. However, at increasing redshift, clusters evolve considerably in star-formation activity and so are less likely to be identified using the widely-used red sequence method. Here we assess the viability of instead identifying high redshift clustering using actively star-forming galaxies (SMGs associated with over-densities of BzKs/LBGs). We perform both a 2- and 3-D clustering analysis to determine whether or not true (3D) clustering can be identified where only 2D data are available. As expected, we find that 2D clustering signals are weak at best and inferred results are method dependant. In our 3D analysis, we identify 12 SMGs associated with an over-density of galaxies coincident both spatially and in redshift - just 8% of SMGs with known redshifts in our sample. Where an SMG in our target fields lacks a known redshift, their sightline is no more likely to display clustering than blank sky fields; prior redshift information for the SMG is required to identify a true clustering signal. We find that the strength of clustering in the volume around typical SMGs, while identifiable, is not exceptional. However, we identify a small number of highly clustered regions, all associated with an SMG. The most notable of these, surrounding LESSJ033336.8-274401, potentially contains an SMG, a QSO and 36 star-forming galaxies (a > 20sig over-density) all at z~1.8. This region is highly likely to represent an actively star-forming cluster and illustrates the success of using star-forming galaxies to select sites of early clustering. Given the increasing number of deep fields with large volumes of spectroscopy, or high quality and reliable photometric redshifts, this opens a new avenue for cluster identification in the young Universe.Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures, accepted MNRA

A hazard-based analysis of airport security transit times

AbstractAirport security screening, and the amount of time it costs travelers, has been a persistent concern to travelers, airport authorities, and airlines – particularly in recent years where changes in perceived threats have resulted in changes in security procedures that have caused great uncertainty relating to security transit times. To gain a better understanding of the factors influencing travelers' security transit times, determinants of security transit times are studied by using anonymous Bluetooth media access control address matching to determine the actual security travel times of individual passengers at the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport. These transit-time data are then analyzed using a random-parameters hazard-based duration model to statistically explore the factors that affect airport security transit times. The estimation results reveal, as expected, that a wide variety of factors affect security transit times including the number of enplaning seats (reflecting flight schedules), weather conditions, day of week, as well as obvious variables such as traveler volume and the number of open security lanes. The detailed statistical findings show that current security procedures are reactive instead of proactive, and that substantial reductions in security transit times could be attained by optimizing security operations using a statistical model such as the one estimated in this paper

Limits on dust emission from z~5 LBGs and their local environments

We present 1.2mm MAMBO-2 observations of a field which is over-dense in Lyman Break Galaxies (LBGs) at z~5. The field includes seven spectroscopically-confirmed LBGs contained within a narrow (z=4.95+/-0.08) redshift range and an eighth at z=5.2. We do not detect any individual source to a limit of 1.6 mJy/beam (2*rms). When stacking the flux from the positions of all eight galaxies, we obtain a limit to the average 1.2 mm flux of these sources of 0.6mJy/beam. This limit is consistent with FIR imaging in other fields which are over-dense in UV-bright galaxies at z~5. Independently and combined, these limits constrain the FIR luminosity (8-1000 micron) to a typical z~5 LBG of LFIR<~3x10^11 Lsun, implying a dust mass of Mdust<~10^8 Msun (both assuming a grey body at 30K). This LFIR limit is an order of magnitude fainter than the LFIR of lower redshift sub-mm sources (z~1-3). We see no emission from any other sources within the field at the above level. While this is not unexpected given millimetre source counts, the clustered LBGs trace significantly over-dense large scale structure in the field at z = 4.95. The lack of any such detection in either this or the previous work, implies that massive, obscured star-forming galaxies may not always trace the same structures as over-densities of LBGs, at least on the length scale probed here. We briefly discuss the implications of these results for future observations with ALMA.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, MNRAS Accepte

Study protocol to investigate the effect of a lifestyle intervention on body weight, psychological health status and risk factors associated with disease recurrence in women recovering from breast cancer treatment

Background Breast cancer survivors often encounter physiological and psychological problems related to their diagnosis and treatment that can influence long-term prognosis. The aim of this research is to investigate the effects of a lifestyle intervention on body weight and psychological well-being in women recovering from breast cancer treatment, and to determine the relationship between changes in these variables and biomarkers associated with disease recurrence and survival. Methods/design Following ethical approval, a total of 100 patients will be randomly assigned to a lifestyle intervention (incorporating dietary energy restriction in conjunction with aerobic exercise training) or normal care control group. Patients randomised to the dietary and exercise intervention will be given individualised healthy eating dietary advice and written information and attend moderate intensity aerobic exercise sessions on three to five days per week for a period of 24 weeks. The aim of this strategy is to induce a steady weight loss of up to 0.5 Kg each week. In addition, the overall quality of the diet will be examined with a view to (i) reducing the dietary intake of fat to ~25% of the total calories, (ii) eating at least 5 portions of fruit and vegetables a day, (iii) increasing the intake of fibre and reducing refined carbohydrates, and (iv) taking moderate amounts of alcohol. Outcome measures will include body weight and body composition, psychological health status (stress and depression), cardiorespiratory fitness and quality of life. In addition, biomarkers associated with disease recurrence, including stress hormones, estrogen status, inflammatory markers and indices of innate and adaptive immune function will be monitored. Discussion This research will provide valuable information on the effectiveness of a practical, easily implemented lifestyle intervention for evoking positive effects on body weight and psychological well-being, two important factors that can influence long-term prognosis in breast cancer survivors. However, the added value of the study is that it will also evaluate the effects of the lifestyle intervention on a range of biomarkers associated with disease recurrence and survival. Considered together, the results should improve our understanding of the potential role that lifestyle-modifiable factors could play in saving or prolonging lives

The cellular redox environment alters antigen presentation

Cysteine-containing peptides represent an important class of T cell epitopes, yet their prevalence remains underestimated. We have established and interrogated a database of around 70,000 naturally processed MHC-bound peptides and demonstrate that cysteine-containing peptides are presented on the surface of cells in an MHC allomorph-dependent manner and comprise on average 5-10% of the immunopeptidome. A significant proportion of these peptides are oxidatively modified, most commonly through covalent linkage with the antioxidant glutathione. Unlike some of the previously reported cysteine-based modifications, this represents a true physiological alteration of cysteine residues. Furthermore, our results suggest that alterations in the cellular redox state induced by viral infection are communicated to the immune system through the presentation of S-glutathionylated viral peptides, resulting in altered T cell recognition. Our data provide a structural basis for how the glutathione modification alters recognition by virus-specific T cells. Collectively, these results suggest that oxidative stress represents a mechanism for modulating the virus-specific T cell response.This work was supported, in whole or in part, by National Institutes of Health Grant R01 NS036592. This work was also supported by an infrastructure grant (Grant LE100100036) from the Australian Research Council (ARC) and a project grant from the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation (17-2012-134)