Predicting a cyclic Poisson process

We construct and investigate a (1 – α)-upper prediction bound for a future observation of a cyclic Poisson process using past data. A normal based confidence interval for our upper prediction bound is established. A comparison of the new prediction bound with a simpler nonparametric prediction bound is also given

Consistent estimation of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process

We construct and investigate a consistent kernel-type nonparametric estimator of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process when the period is unknown. We assume that only a single realization of the Poisson process is observed in a bounded window. In particular, we prove that the proposed estimator is weakly and strongly consistent when the size of the window expands

Statistical properties of a kernel type estimator of the intensity function of a cyclic poisson process

We consider a kernel-type nonparametric estimator of the intensity function of a cyclic Poisson process when the period is unknown. We assume that only a single realization of the Poisson process is observed in a bounded window which expands in time. We compute the asymptotic bias, variance, and the mean squared error of the estimator when the window indefinitely expands

A non-parametric estimator for the doubly-periodic Poisson intensity function

In a series of papers, J. Garrido and Y. Lu have proposed and investigated a doubly-periodic Poisson model, and then applied it to analyze hurricane data. The authors have suggested several parametric models for the underlying intensity function. In the present paper we construct and analyze a non-parametric estimator for the doubly-periodic intensity function. Assuming that only a single realization of the process is available in a bounded window, we show that the estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal when the window expands indefinitely. In addition we calculate the asymptotic bias and variance of the estimator, and in this way gain helpful information for optimizing the performance of the estimator