Nonlinear Inflationary Persistence and Growth: Theory and Empirical Comparative Analysis

The paper focuses on the decomposition of inflation persistence into the linear and nonlinear components. The hypothesis is that the nonlinear component of inflation persistence results from a technological shock and might positively contribute to economic growth. The microfoundations are derived from an assumption of Calvo pricing and sticky-information Keynesian Phillips curve. The hypothesis is evaluated empirically with the use of monthly data series for inflation for 119 countries. Linear and nonlinear (bilinear) inflation persistence measures have been estimated with the use of a bilinear autoregressive moving average model in a state space form. Further on, correlation analysis has been performed for these countries to detect a relationship between economic growth and linear and nonlinear persistence. The paper concludes that the nonlinear inflation persistence contributes positively to economic growth after 2000.inflation, growth, bilinear processes

Moduli spaces of stable sheaves over quasi-polarized surfaces, and the relative Strange Duality morphism

The main result of the present paper is a construction of relative moduli spaces of stable sheaves over the stack of quasipolarized projective surfaces. For this, we use the theory of good moduli spaces, whose study was initiated by Alper. As a corollary, we extend the relative Strange Duality morphism to the locus of quasipolarized K3 surfaces.Comment: 15 pages; comments welcome; part of the author's PhD thesis. Published versio

Strategic Approach to the Formation of a Balanced State of Socio-Economic Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and the Subject of Regulatory Impact Assessment of the Quality of Life in the Region

Статья посвящена проблемам программно-целевого управления социально-экономическим развитием РФ и субъектов РФ. Нами разработан стратегический подход к формированию государственной программы Красноярского края по развитию Арктической зоны региона, направленной на повышение качества жизни населенияThe article investigates the Management by Objectives of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and the subjects of the Russian Federation. We have developed a strategic-sky approach to the formation of the state program of the Krasnoyarsk Territory Development of the Arctic zone of the region, aimed at improving the quality of lif

Anti-pandemic restrictions, uncertainty and sentiment in seven countries

We investigate how the stringency of government anti-pandemic policy measures might affect economic policy uncertainty in countries with different degrees of press freedom, various press reporting styles and writing conventions. We apply a text-based measure of uncertainty using data from over 400,000 press articles from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, the UK and the USA published before the wide-scale vaccination programmes were introduced. The measure accounts for pandemic-related words and negative sentiment scores weight the selected articles. We then tested the dynamic panel data model where the relative changes in these measures were explained by levels and changes in the stringency measures. We have found that introducing and then maintaining unchanged for a relatively long time a constant level of anti-pandemic stringency measures reduce uncertainty. In contrast, a change in such a level has the opposite effect. This result is robust across the countries, despite their differences in political systems, press control and freedom of speech

The social behavior formation of master students in the process of their university studies

The article contains results of the factors analysis that form a social behavior of master students in the learning process and during training period at a higher educational institution. In the research was distinguished: the degree of information of students about the purpose of magistracy, their motivation for studying in the magistracy, the tendency to implement research activities, and the financial situation of students. The object of research is the bachelor’s degrees’ students of a third and fourth years of study and master students of a first and second year of study from eight regional state universities of Russia. The article also provides comparative data with the results of studies implemented earlier, in 2011, 2014, and 2016 years, by the authors from eight Russian universities. The results of the study enable us to identify problems concerning certain aspects of the functioning of the institute of magistracy in the system of Russian higher education institutions

A class of stochastic unit-root bilinear processes: Mixing properties and unit-root test

International audienc

Arquivar atividades em termos de autenticidade de documentos eletrônicos e variação do número de cópias

The article is devoted to the problems of archive activity during the digital era, which are conditioned from the authors' point of view by the introduction of electronic documents that have changed the content of paperwork and archiving key categories - authenticity and copy number variation, as well as related originality and authenticity. The technologies of work in the archive, always considered as a unique system of originals are based on the traditional understanding of these categories. Using the method of expert assessments during the determination of key category content, the authors conclude that the current activity of the archives is aimed at copy production activity increase, their management and the provision of authenticity, reliability, integrity and suitability for use. Nowadays the issue of document archiving requires the consolidation of state and non-state structure efforts to develop a new attitude to the authenticity of electronic documents, to change the usual nature of archival institution interaction with users and interested citizens, state authorities and administration, law enforcement and judicial system.El artículo está dedicado a los problemas de la actividad de archivo durante la era digital, que están condicionados desde el punto de vista de los autores por la introducción de documentos electrónicos que han cambiado el contenido del papeleo y las categorías clave de archivo: autenticidad y variación del número de copias, como así como la originalidad y autenticidad relacionadas. Las tecnologías de trabajo en el archivo, siempre consideradas como un sistema único de originales, se basan en el entendimiento tradicional de estas categorías. Usando el método de evaluaciones de expertos durante la determinación del contenido de la categoría clave, los autores concluyen que la actividad actual de los archivos está dirigida a aumentar la actividad de producción de copias, su gestión y la provisión de autenticidad, confiabilidad, integridad y adecuación para su uso. Hoy en día, el tema del archivo de documentos requiere la consolidación de los esfuerzos de la estructura estatal y no estatal para desarrollar una nueva actitud hacia la autenticidad de los documentos electrónicos, para cambiar la naturaleza habitual de la interacción de la institución archivística con los usuarios y ciudadanos interesados, las autoridades estatales, la administración y la ley.O artigo é dedicado aos problemas da atividade de arquivo durante a era digital, eles são condicionados a partir do ponto de vista dos autores para a introdução de documentos eletrônicos que mudaram o conteúdo de documentos e categorias de arquivos-chave: autenticidade e variação do número de cópias, bem como a originalidade e autenticidade relacionadas. Tecnologias de trabalho no arquivo, sempre considerado como um único sistema original, com base no entendimento tradicional destas categorias. Usando o método de avaliações de peritos para a determinação da categoria-chave, os autores concluem que a atividade de arquivos atual visa aumentar cópias atividade de produção, gestão e prestação de autenticidade, confiabilidade, integridade e adequação para uso. Hoje, a questão do arquivamento de documentos requer a consolidação dos esforços de estruturas estatais e não-estatais para desenvolver uma nova atitude em relação à autenticidade dos documentos eletrônicos, para mudar a natureza habitual da interação da instituição de arquivo utilizadores e cidadãos interessados, autoridades estatais, administração e direito

Assessing the Adaptation of the Population of Russian Regions to Digital Technologies

Currently, digitalisation of public life is one of the most important external challenges that requires active adaptation of the population to new realities. Russia has been quite successfully implementing digital technologies, ranking in the middle of various world ratings. However, Russian regions significantly differ in terms of the population adaptation to digital technologies. We hypothesise that adaptation speed depends on demographic characteristics of the regional population. In this regard, the paper aims to develop a methodology and tools for assessing the adaptation of the population of Russian regions to digital technologies. The study employs data of a sample observation on the state of the information society in 2014–2020 obtained from the Federal State Statistics Service. Methods of statistical, cartographic, factor and regression analysis, as well as the econometric estimates conducted in the R software environment were used. Constructed econometric models show that gender and place of residence (urban or rural settlement) are the most important adaptation factors in Russian regions. In particular, urban women more actively use the Internet for shopping, while urban women and rural men use it to receive public services. Active acquisition of digital competencies by the population reduces the importance of some barrier factors (restrictions), such as the cost of connection (Internet connection becomes a basic need) and the lack of skills. While the identified effects differ in magnitude, they are significant for almost all Russian regions. The developed research methodology can be applied in future studies to analyse other aspects of social and economic adaptation of the regional population to current challenges. The findings can be used for justifying and implementing the public policy measures, in particular, the national project “Digital Economy”

Assessing the Adaptation of the Population of Russian Regions to Digital Technologies

Currently, digitalisation of public life is one of the most important external challenges that requires active adaptation of the population to new realities. Russia has been quite successfully implementing digital technologies, ranking in the middle of various world ratings. However, Russian regions significantly differ in terms of the population adaptation to digital technologies. We hypothesise that adaptation speed depends on demographic characteristics of the regional population. In this regard, the paper aims to develop a methodology and tools for assessing the adaptation of the population of Russian regions to digital technologies. The study employs data of a sample observation on the state of the information society in 2014–2020 obtained from the Federal State Statistics Service. Methods of statistical, cartographic, factor and regression analysis, as well as the econometric estimates conducted in the R software environment were used. Constructed econometric models show that gender and place of residence (urban or rural settlement) are the most important adaptation factors in Russian regions. In particular, urban women more actively use the Internet for shopping, while urban women and rural men use it to receive public services. Active acquisition of digital competencies by the population reduces the importance of some barrier factors (restrictions), such as the cost of connection (Internet connection becomes a basic need) and the lack of skills. While the identified effects differ in magnitude, they are significant for almost all Russian regions. The developed research methodology can be applied in future studies to analyse other aspects of social and economic adaptation of the regional population to current challenges. The findings can be used for justifying and implementing the public policy measures, in particular, the national project “Digital Economy”

Making the most of high inflation

The article examines the relationship between the real effects of inflation and its level in countries with frequent episodes of high inflation. The real effects are computed as asymmetric impulse responses of output to inflation separately for the regimes with different signs of the differences between the expected inflation and the predicted output-neutral inflation. It is found that, with the increase in inflation, such effects increase for the regime with the positive sign, relatively to the effects for the regime with the negative sign. It is also shown that this finding is valid for most countries with high inflation episodes, where inflation is greater than 4.8% for at least 25% of quarterly observations. This leads to a simple policy prescription that, in economies with frequent high inflation episodes, anti-inflationary monetary decisions are least damaging for output if undertaken in the periods when the difference between the expected and output-neutral inflation is negative