Employing the coupled EUHFORIA-OpenGGCM model to predict CME geoeffectiveness

EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) is a physics-based data-driven solar wind and CME propagation model designed for space weather forecasting and event analysis investigations. Although EUHFORIA can predict the solar wind plasma and magnetic field properties at Earth, it is not equipped to quantify the geoeffectiveness of the solar transients in terms of the geomagnetic indices like the disturbance storm time (Dst) index and the eauroral indices that quantify the impact of the magnetized plasma encounters on Earth's magnetosphere. Therefore, we couple EUHFORIA with the Open Geospace General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM), a magnetohydrodynamic model of the response of Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere, to transient solar wind characteristics. In this coupling, OpenGGCM is driven by the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field obtained from EUHFORIA simulations to produce the magnetospheric and ionospheric response to the CMEs. This coupling is validated with two observed geoeffective CME events driven with the spheromak flux-rope CME model. We compare these simulation results with the indices obtained from OpenGGCM simulations driven by the measured solar wind data from spacecraft. We further employ the dynamic time warping (DTW) technique to assess the model performance in predicting Dst. The main highlight of this study is to use EUHFORIA simulated time series to predict the Dst and auroral indices 1 to 2 days in advance, as compared to using the observed solar wind data at L1, which only provides predictions 1 to 2 hours before the actual impact.Comment: Accepted in Space Weather on March 26, 202

Studying the spheromak rotation in data-constrained CME modelling with EUHFORIA and assessing its effect on the Bz prediction

A key challenge in space weather forecasting is accurately predicting the magnetic field topology of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), specifically the north-south magnetic field component (Bz) for Earth-directed CMEs. Heliospheric MHD models typically use spheromaks to represent the magnetic structure of CMEs. However, when inserted into the ambient interplanetary magnetic field, spheromaks can experience a phenomenon reminiscent of the condition known as the "spheromak tilting instability", causing its magnetic axis to rotate. From the perspective of space weather forecasting, it is crucial to understand the effect of this rotation on predicting Bz at 1 au while implementing the spheromak model for realistic event studies. In this work, we study this by modelling a CME event on 2013 April 11 using the "EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset" (EUHFORIA). Our results show that a significant spheromak rotation up to 90 degrees has occurred by the time it reaches 1 au, while the majority of this rotation occurs below 0.3 au. This total rotation resulted in poor predicted magnetic field topology of the ICME at 1 au. To address this issue, we further investigated the influence of spheromak density on mitigating rotation. The results show that the spheromak rotation is less for higher densities. Importantly, we observe a substantial reduction in the uncertainties associated with predicting Bz when there is minimal spheromak rotation. Therefore, we conclude that spheromak rotation adversely affects Bz prediction in the analyzed event, emphasizing the need for caution when employing spheromaks in global MHD models for space weather forecasting.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Supplement (ApJS) serie

Modeling a Coronal Mass Ejection from an Extended Filament Channel. II. Interplanetary Propagation to 1 au

We present observations and modeling results of the propagation and impact at Earth of a high-latitude, extended filament channel eruption that commenced on 2015 July 9. The coronal mass ejection (CME) that resulted from the filament eruption was associated with a moderate disturbance at Earth. This event could be classified as a so-called "problem storm" because it lacked the usual solar signatures that are characteristic of large, energetic, Earth-directed CMEs that often result in significant geoeffective impacts. We use solar observations to constrain the initial parameters and therefore to model the propagation of the 2015 July 9 eruption from the solar corona up to Earth using 3D magnetohydrodynamic heliospheric simulations with three different configurations of the modeled CME. We find the best match between observed and modeled arrival at Earth for the simulation run that features a toroidal flux rope structure of the CME ejecta, but caution that different approaches may be more or less useful depending on the CME-observer geometry when evaluating the space weather impact of eruptions that are extreme in terms of their large size and high degree of asymmetry. We discuss our results in the context of both advancing our understanding of the physics of CME evolution and future improvements to space weather forecasting.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

Rotation and interaction of the September 8 and 10, 2014 CMEs tested with EUHFORIA

Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can catch up and interact with preceding CMEs and solar wind structures to undergo rotation and deflection during their propagation. We aim to show how interactions undergone by a CME in the corona and heliosphere can play a significant role in altering its geoeffectiveness predicted at the time of its eruption. We consider a case study of two successive CMEs launched from the active region NOAA 12158 in early September 2014. The second CME was predicted to be extensively geoeffective based on the remote-sensing observations of the source region. However, in situ measurements at 1~au recorded only a short-lasting weak negative Bz component followed by a prolonged positive Bz component. The EUropean Heliosphere FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) is used to perform a self-consistent 3D MHD simulation of the two CMEs in the heliosphere. The initial conditions of the CMEs are determined by combining observational insights near the Sun, fine-tuned to match the in situ observations near 1~au, and additional numerical experiments of each individual CME. By introducing CME1 before CME2 in the EUHFORIA simulation, we modelled the negative Bz component in the sheath region ahead of CME2 whose formation can be attributed to the interaction between CME1 and CME2. To reproduce the positive Bz component in the magnetic ejecta of CME2, we had to initialise CME2 with an orientation determined at 0.1~au and consistent with the orientation interpreted at 1~au, instead of the orientation observed during its eruption. EUHFORIA simulations suggest the possibility of a significant rotation of CME2 in the low corona in order to explain the in situ observations at 1~au. Coherent magnetic field rotations, potentially geoeffective, can be formed in the sheath region as a result of CME-CME interactions in the heliosphere even if the individual CMEs are not geoeffective.Comment: The paper is accepted in A&A journal for publication on May 5, 202

Studying the Spheromak Rotation in Data-constrained Coronal Mass Ejection Modeling with EUHFORIA and Assessing Its Effect on the B z Prediction

A key challenge in space weather forecasting is accurately predicting the magnetic field topology of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), specifically the north–south magnetic field component ( B _z ) for Earth-directed CMEs. Heliospheric MHD models typically use spheromaks to represent the magnetic structure of CMEs. However, when inserted into the ambient interplanetary magnetic field, spheromaks can experience a phenomenon reminiscent of the condition known as the “spheromak tilting instability,” causing its magnetic axis to rotate. From the perspective of space weather forecasting, it is crucial to understand the effect of this rotation on predicting B _z at 1 au while implementing the spheromak model for realistic event studies. In this work, we study this by modeling a CME event on 2013 April 11 using the European Heliospheric Forecasting Information Asset. Our results show that a significant spheromak rotation up to 90° has occurred by the time it reaches 1 au, while the majority of this rotation occurs below 0.3 au. This total rotation resulted in poor predicted magnetic field topology of the ICME at 1 au. To address this issue, we further investigated the influence of spheromak density on mitigating rotation. The results show that the spheromak rotation is less for higher densities. Importantly, we observe a substantial reduction in the uncertainties associated with predicting B _z when there is minimal spheromak rotation. Therefore, we conclude that spheromak rotation adversely affects B _z prediction in the analyzed event, emphasizing the need for caution when employing spheromaks in global MHD models for space weather forecasting

Modeling a Coronal Mass Ejection from an Extended Filament Channel. II. Interplanetary Propagation to 1 au

We present observations and modeling results of the propagation and impact at Earth of a high-latitude, extended filament channel eruption that commenced on 2015 July 9. The coronal mass ejection (CME) that resulted from the filament eruption was associated with a moderate disturbance at Earth. This event could be classified as a so-called "problem storm" because it lacked the usual solar signatures that are characteristic of large, energetic, Earth-directed CMEs that often result in significant geoeffective impacts. We use solar observations to constrain the initial parameters and therefore to model the propagation of the 2015 July 9 eruption from the solar corona up to Earth using 3D magnetohydrodynamic heliospheric simulations with three different configurations of the modeled CME. We find the best match between observed and modeled arrival at Earth for the simulation run that features a toroidal flux rope structure of the CME ejecta, but caution that different approaches may be more or less useful depending on the CME-observer geometry when evaluating the space weather impact of eruptions that are extreme in terms of their large size and high degree of asymmetry. We discuss our results in the context of both advancing our understanding of the physics of CME evolution and future improvements to space weather forecasting.Peer reviewe

COMPLETE: a flagship mission for complete understanding of 3D coronal magnetic energy release

COMPLETE is a flagship mission concept combining broadband spectroscopic imaging and comprehensive magnetography from multiple viewpoints around the Sun to enable tomographic reconstruction of 3D coronal magnetic fields and associated dynamic plasma properties, which provide direct diagnostics of energy release. COMPLETE re-imagines the paradigm for solar remote-sensing observations through purposefully cooptimized detectors distributed on multiple spacecraft that operate as a single observatory, linked by a comprehensive data/model assimilation strategy to unify individual observations into a single physical framework. We describe COMPLETE's science goals, instruments, and mission implementation. With targeted investment by NASA, COMPLETE is feasible for launch in 2032 to observe around the maximum of Solar Cycle 26

Magnetic Energy Powers the Corona: How We Can Understand its 3D Storage & Release

Synopsis The coronal magnetic field is the prime driver behind many as-yet unsolved mysteries: solar eruptions, coronal heating, and the solar wind, to name a few. It is, however, still poorly observed and understood. We highlight key questions related to magnetic energy storage, release, and transport in the solar corona, and their relationship to these important problems. We advocate for new and multi-point co-optimized measurements, sensitive to magnetic field and other plasma parameters, spanning from optical to γ-ray wavelengths, to bring closure to these long-standing and fundamental questions. We discuss how our approach can fully describe the 3D magnetic field, embedded plasma, particle energization, and their joint evolution to achieve these objectives. Magnetic Energy Powers the Corona: How We Can Understand its 3D Storage & Releas