Climate model forecast biases assessed with a perturbed physics ensemble

Perturbed physics ensembles have often been used to analyse long-timescale climate model behaviour, but have been used less often to study model processes on shorter timescales. We combine a transient perturbed physics ensemble with a set of initialised forecasts to deduce regional process errors present in the standard HadCM3 model, which cause the model to drift in the early stages of the forecast. First, it is shown that the transient drifts in the perturbed physics ensembles can be used to recover quantitatively the parameters that were perturbed. The parameters which exert most influence on the drifts vary regionally, but upper ocean mixing and atmospheric convective processes are particularly important on the 1-month timescale. Drifts in the initialised forecasts are then used to recover the ‘equivalent parameter perturbations’, which allow identification of the physical processes that may be at fault in the HadCM3 representation of the real world. Most parameters show positive and negative adjustments in different regions, indicating that standard HadCM3 values represent a global compromise. The method is verified by correcting an unusually widespread positive bias in the strength of wind-driven ocean mixing, with forecast drifts reduced in a large number of areas as a result. This method could therefore be used to improve the skill of initialised climate model forecasts by reducing model biases through regional adjustments to physical processes, either by tuning or targeted parametrisation refinement. Further, such regionally tuned models might also significantly outperform standard climate models, with global parameter configurations, in longer-term climate studies

Implied Contribution Under the Federal Securities Laws: A Reassessment

Exposure to a strong T-helper 2 (Th2)-like environment during fetal development may promote allergy development. Increased cord blood (CB) levels of the Th2-associated chemokine CCL22 were associated with allergy development during the first 2 y of life. The aim of the present study was to determine whether CB Th1- and Th2-associated chemokine levels are associated with allergy development during the first 6 y of life, allowing assessment of respiratory allergic symptoms usually developing in this period. The CB levels of cytokines, chemokines, and total IgE were determined in 56 children of 20 women with allergic symptoms and 36 women without allergic symptoms. Total IgE and allergen-specific IgE antibody levels were quantified at 6, 12, 24 mo, and 6 y of age. Increased CB CCL22 levels were associated with development of allergic sensitization and asthma and increased CCL17 levels with development of allergic symptoms, including asthma. Sensitized children with allergic symptoms showed higher CB CCL17 and CCL22 levels and higher ratios between these Th2-associated chemokines and the Th1-associated chemokine CXCL10 than nonsensitized children without allergic symptoms. A pronounced Th2 deviation at birth, reflected by increased CB CCL17 and CCL22 levels, and increased CCL22/CXCL10 and CCL17/CXCL10 ratios might promote allergy development later in life

The association between baseline persistent pain and weight change in patients attending a specialist weight management service

To quantify the influence of baseline pain levels on weight change at one-year follow-up in patients attending a National Health Service specialist weight management programme.We compared one-year follow-up weight (body mass) change between patient sub-groups of none-to-mild, moderate, and severe pain at baseline. A mean sub-group difference in weight change of ≥5kg was considered clinically relevant.Of the 141 complete cases, n = 43 (30.5%) reported none-to-mild pain, n = 44 (31.2%) reported moderate pain, and n = 54 (38.3%) reported severe pain. Covariate-adjusted mean weight loss (95%CI) was similar for those with none-to-mild (8.1kg (4.2 to 12.0kg)) and moderate pain (8.3kg (4.9 to 11.7kg). The mean weight loss of 3.0kg (-0.4 to 6.4kg) for the severe pain group was 5.1kg (-0.6 to 10.7, p = 0.08) lower than the none-to-mild pain group and 5.3kg (0.4 to 10.2kg, p = 0.03) lower than the moderate pain group.Patients with severe pain upon entry to a specialist weight management service in England achieve a smaller mean weight loss at one-year follow-up than those with none-to-moderate pain. The magnitude of the difference in mean weight loss was clinically relevant, highlighting the importance of addressing severe persistent pain in obese patients undertaking weight management programmes

Tissue specific characteristics of cells isolated from human and rat tendons and ligaments

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tendon and ligament injuries are common and costly in terms of surgery and rehabilitation. This might be improved by using tissue engineered constructs to accelerate the repair process; a method used successfully for skin wound healing and cartilage repair. Progress in this field has however been limited; possibly due to an over-simplistic choice of donor cell. For tissue engineering purposes it is often assumed that all tendon and ligament cells are similar despite their differing roles and biomechanics. To clarify this, we have characterised cells from various tendons and ligaments of human and rat origin in terms of proliferation, response to dexamethasone and cell surface marker expression.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cells isolated from tendons by collagenase digestion were plated out in DMEM containing 10% fetal calf serum, penicillin/streptomycin and ultraglutamine. Cell number and collagen accumulation were by determined methylene blue and Sirius red staining respectively. Expression of cell surface markers was established by flow cytometry.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the CFU-f assay, human PT-derived cells produced more and bigger colonies suggesting the presence of more progenitor cells with a higher proliferative capacity. Dexamethasone had no effect on colony number in ACL or PT cells but 10 nM dexamethasone increased colony size in ACL cultures whereas higher concentrations decreased colony size in both ACL and PT cultures. In secondary subcultures, dexamethasone had no significant effect on PT cultures whereas a stimulation was seen at low concentrations in the ACL cultures and an inhibition at higher concentrations. Collagen accumulation was inhibited with increasing doses in both ACL and PT cultures. This differential response was also seen in rat-derived cells with similar differences being seen between Achilles, Patellar and tail tendon cells. Cell surface marker expression was also source dependent; CD90 was expressed at higher levels by PT cells and in both humans and rats whereas D7fib was expressed at lower levels by PT cells in humans.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These data show that tendon & ligament cells from different sources possess intrinsic differences in terms of their growth, dexamethasone responsiveness and cell surface marker expression. This suggests that for tissue engineering purposes the cell source must be carefully considered to maximise their efficacy.</p

Bioinformatic identification of proteins with tissue-specific expression for biomarker discovery

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is an important need for the identification of novel serological biomarkers for the early detection of cancer. Current biomarkers suffer from a lack of tissue specificity, rendering them vulnerable to non-disease-specific increases. The present study details a strategy to rapidly identify tissue-specific proteins using bioinformatics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Previous studies have focused on either gene or protein expression databases for the identification of candidates. We developed a strategy that mines six publicly available gene and protein databases for tissue-specific proteins, selects proteins likely to enter the circulation, and integrates proteomic datasets enriched for the cancer secretome to prioritize candidates for further verification and validation studies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using colon, lung, pancreatic and prostate cancer as case examples, we identified 48 candidate tissue-specific biomarkers, of which 14 have been previously studied as biomarkers of cancer or benign disease. Twenty-six candidate biomarkers for these four cancer types are proposed.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We present a novel strategy using bioinformatics to identify tissue-specific proteins that are potential cancer serum biomarkers. Investigation of the 26 candidates in disease states of the organs is warranted.</p

The Virtual-Spine Platform—Acquiring, visualizing, and analyzing individual sitting behavior

Back pain is a serious medical problem especially for those people sitting over long periods during their daily work. Here we present a system to help users monitoring and examining their sitting behavior. The Virtual-Spine Platform (VSP) is an integrated system consisting of a real-time body position monitoring module and a data visualization module to provide individualized, immediate, and accurate sitting behavior support. It provides a comprehensive spine movement analysis as well as accumulated data visualization to demonstrate behavior patterns within a certain period. The two modules are discussed in detail focusing on the design of the VSP system with adequate capacity for continuous monitoring and a web-based interactive data analysis method to visualize and compare the sitting behavior of different persons. The data was collected in an experiment with a small group of subjects. Using this method, the behavior of five subjects was evaluated over a working day, enabling inferences and suggestions for sitting improvements. The results from the accumulated data module were used to elucidate the basic function of body position recognition of the VSP. Finally, an expert user study was conducted to evaluate VSP and support future developments

A genomic biomarker signature can predict skin sensitizers using a cell-based in vitro alternative to animal tests

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Allergic contact dermatitis is an inflammatory skin disease that affects a significant proportion of the population. This disease is caused by an adverse immune response towards chemical haptens, and leads to a substantial economic burden for society. Current test of sensitizing chemicals rely on animal experimentation. New legislations on the registration and use of chemicals within pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries have stimulated significant research efforts to develop alternative, human cell-based assays for the prediction of sensitization. The aim is to replace animal experiments with in vitro tests displaying a higher predictive power.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We have developed a novel cell-based assay for the prediction of sensitizing chemicals. By analyzing the transcriptome of the human cell line MUTZ-3 after 24 h stimulation, using 20 different sensitizing chemicals, 20 non-sensitizing chemicals and vehicle controls, we have identified a biomarker signature of 200 genes with potent discriminatory ability. Using a Support Vector Machine for supervised classification, the prediction performance of the assay revealed an area under the ROC curve of 0.98. In addition, categorizing the chemicals according to the LLNA assay, this gene signature could also predict sensitizing potency. The identified markers are involved in biological pathways with immunological relevant functions, which can shed light on the process of human sensitization.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A gene signature predicting sensitization, using a human cell line in vitro, has been identified. This simple and robust cell-based assay has the potential to completely replace or drastically reduce the utilization of test systems based on experimental animals. Being based on human biology, the assay is proposed to be more accurate for predicting sensitization in humans, than the traditional animal-based tests.</p

Risk factors for overweight and obesity, and changes in body mass index of Chinese adults in Shanghai

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Over the past two decades, the prevalence of overweight or obesity has increased in China. The aims of this study were to firstly assess the baseline prevelences and the risk factors for overweight and obesity, and secondly to detect the changes of body mass index (BMI) over a follow-up period in Chinese adults in Shanghai.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data set of a population-based longitudinal study was analyzed. Anthropometric and biochemical data were collected for 5364 subjects (aged 25–95 years) during a period of 1998–2001. Among those individuals, 3032 subjects were interviewed and reexamined at the second survey from 2003 to 2004. Then the standardized prevalences for overweight and obesity were calculated using baseline data; the possible contributing factors of overweight and obesity were detected using binary logistic regression analysis; and the changes of BMI were evaluated after an average of 3.6-year follow-up period.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>(1) According to the WHO standard and the Chinese standard, the sex- and age-standardized prevalences were 27.5% and 32.4% for overweight, and 3.7% and 9.1% for obesity, respectively. (2) The risks of overweight and obesity differed among different age groups. Family history of obesity increased the risk of overweight and obesity by about 1.2-fold for both genders. Current male smokers had a lower risk of overweight and obesity (OR = 0.76, <it>p </it>< 0.05) than nonsmokers. In contrast, current male drinkers had a higher risk of overweight and obesity (OR = 1.42, <it>p </it>< 0.05) than nondrinkers. Compared with low-educated women, medium- and high- educated women were at lower risk of overweight and obesity, and the corresponding ORs (95% CIs) were 0.64 (0.52–0.79) and 0.50(0.36–0.68), respectively. (3) The annual changes of BMI means ranged from an increase of 0.1 kg/m²to a decrease of 0.2 kg/m²(by genders and age groups). Meanwhile, the BMI increase was statistically significant in the 35–44 years age group, and the BMI decrease was significant above 65 years for both genders.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study showed high prevalence of overweight and obesity in Shanghai metropolis populations. The risk factors of overweight and obesity were multifactorial and gender specific. After 3.6 years, BMI means changed slightly, BMI increased mainly in middle-aged individuals and decreased in old individuals.</p

Symbionts as Major Modulators of Insect Health: Lactic Acid Bacteria and Honeybees

Lactic acid bacteria (LAB) are well recognized beneficial host-associated members of the microbiota of humans and animals. Yet LAB-associations of invertebrates have been poorly characterized and their functions remain obscure. Here we show that honeybees possess an abundant, diverse and ancient LAB microbiota in their honey crop with beneficial effects for bee health, defending them against microbial threats. Our studies of LAB in all extant honeybee species plus related apid bees reveal one of the largest collections of novel species from the genera Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium ever discovered within a single insect and suggest a long (>80 mya) history of association. Bee associated microbiotas highlight Lactobacillus kunkeei as the dominant LAB member. Those showing potent antimicrobial properties are acquired by callow honey bee workers from nestmates and maintained within the crop in biofilms, though beekeeping management practices can negatively impact this microbiota. Prophylactic practices that enhance LAB, or supplementary feeding of LAB, may serve in integrated approaches to sustainable pollinator service provision. We anticipate this microbiota will become central to studies on honeybee health, including colony collapse disorder, and act as an exemplar case of insect-microbe symbiosis