Simulation of a Himalayan cloudburst event

Intense rainfall often leads to floods and landslides in the Himalayan region even with rainfall amounts that are considered comparatively moderate over the plains; for example, ‘cloudbursts’, which are devastating convective phenomena producing sudden high-intensity rainfall (∼10 cm per hour) over a small area. Early prediction and warning of such severe local weather systems is crucial to mitigate societal impact arising from the accompanying flash floods. We examine a cloudburst event in the Himalayan region at Shillagarh village in the early hours of 16 July 2003. The storm lasted for less than half an hour, followed by flash floods that affected hundreds of people. We examine the fidelity of MM5 configured with multiple-nested domains (81, 27, 9 and 3 km grid-resolution) for predicting a cloudburst event with attention to horizontal resolution and the cloud microphysics parameterization. The MM5 model predicts the rainfall amount 24 hours in advance. However, the location of the cloudburst is displaced by tens of kilometer

Association between mortality from suicide in England and antidepressant prescribing: an ecological study

BACKGROUND: Antidepressant prescribing has been increasing in England. Studies in other countries suggest that while this may be associated with reduced suicide rates, it may also be associated with increased fatal poisoning from antidepressant drugs. We therefore conducted an ecological study to assess the association between prescription rates for antidepressants and suicide or fatal antidepressant-related poisoning in England. METHODS: The Office for National Statistics provided information on the number of suicides, antidepressant-related poisoning deaths and populations for England between 1993 and 2002. The Department of Health supplied data on prescriptions for all antidepressants dispensed in England. Associations between prescriptions and deaths were assessed using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. RESULTS: There were 46,747 suicides, 3,987 deaths involving tricyclic antidepressants and 430 involving selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors and other antidepressants. Increased antidepressant prescribing was statistically associated with a fall in suicide rates (Spearman's r(s )= -0.73, p = 0.02) and fatal poisoning involving tricyclic antidepressants (r(s )= -0.64, p = 0.05). In contrast, increased prescribing of selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors and other antidepressants was statistically associated with an increase in fatal poisoning involving these drugs (r(s )= 0.99, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Increased prescribing of antidepressants may indicate improved diagnosis and treatment of depression in primary care. Our analysis suggests that this was accompanied by lower suicide rates. A decrease in poisoning deaths involving tricyclic antidepressants may suggest a change in preference for using serotonin reuptake inhibitors and other antidepressant drugs for high-risk patients. This may also partially explain the increase in deaths involving these drugs. Due to the ecological nature of the design, we cannot say conclusively whether reduced suicide rates are a direct consequence of increased antidepressant prescribing rates. To confirm these associations, individual level data on prescribing and suicide is needed

Is there an association between depressive and urinary symptoms during and after pregnancy?

Depressive symptoms and urinary symptoms are both highly prevalent in pregnancy. In the general population, an association is reported between urinary symptoms and depressive symptoms. The association of depressive and urinary symptoms has not yet been assessed in pregnancy. In this study, we assessed (1) the prevalence of depressive symptoms, over-active bladder (OAB) syndrome, urge urinary incontinence (UUI) and stress urinary incontinence (SUI) during and after pregnancy using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and the Urogenital Distress Inventory (UDI) and (2) the association of depressive symptoms with urinary incontinence and over-active bladder syndrome during and after pregnancy, controlling for confounding socioeconomic, psychosocial, behavioural and biomedical factors in a cohort of healthy nulliparous women. Our data show a significant increase in prevalence of depressive symptoms, UUI, SUI and OAB during pregnancy and a significant reduction in prevalence of depressive symptoms, SUI and OAB after childbirth. UUI prevalence did not significantly decrease after childbirth. In univariate analysis, urinary incontinence and the OAB syndrome were significantly associated with a CES-D score indicative of a possible clinical depression at 36 weeks gestation. However, after adjusting for possible confounding factors, only the OAB syndrome remained significantly associated (OR 4.4 [1.8–10.5]). No association was found between depressive and urinary symptoms at 1 year post-partum. Only OAB was independently associated with depressive symptoms during pregnancy. Possible explanations for this association are discussed

Improved representation of the diurnal variation of warm season precipitation by an atmospheric general circulation model at a 10 km horizontal resolution

This study investigates the diurnal variation of the warm season precipitation simulated by the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 atmospheric general circulation model for 2??years (2005???2006) at a horizontal resolution of 10??km. The simulation was validated with the satellite-derived Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 precipitation data and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications atmospheric reanalysis for atmospheric winds and moisture. The simulation is compared with the coarse-resolution run in 50??km to examine the impacts driven by resolution change. Overall, the 10??km model tends to reproduce the important features of the observed diurnal variation, such as the amplitude and phase at which precipitation peaks in the evening on land and in the morning over the ocean, despite an excessive amplitude bias over land. The model also reproduces the realistic propagation patterns of precipitation in the vicinity of ocean coasts and major mountains. The regional characteristics of the diurnal precipitation over two regions, the Bay of Bengal and the Great Plains in North America, are examined in detail, where the observed diurnal cycle exhibits a systematic transition in the peak phase due to the development and propagation of regional-scale convective systems. The model is able to reproduce this pattern as well as the diurnal variation of low-level wind and moisture convergence; however, it is less effective at representing the nocturnal peak of precipitation over the Great Plains. The model results suggest that increasing the horizontal resolution of the model to 10??km substantially improves the representation of the diurnal precipitation cycle. However, intrinsic model deficiencies in topographical precipitation and the accurate representation of mesoscale convective systems remain a challenge

Pantropical variability in tree crown allometry

Aim: Tree crowns determine light interception, carbon and water exchange. Thus, understanding the factors causing tree crown allometry to vary at the tree and stand level matters greatly for the development of future vegetation modelling and for the calibration of remote sensing products. Nevertheless, we know little about large‐scale variation and determinants in tropical tree crown allometry. In this study, we explored the continental variation in scaling exponents of site‐specific crown allometry and assessed their relationships with environmental and stand‐level variables in the tropics. / Location: Global tropics. / Time period: Early 21st century. / Major taxa studied: Woody plants. / Methods: Using a dataset of 87,737 trees distributed among 245 forest and savanna sites across the tropics, we fitted site‐specific allometric relationships between crown dimensions (crown depth, diameter and volume) and stem diameter using power‐law models. Stand‐level and environmental drivers of crown allometric relationships were assessed at pantropical and continental scales. / Results: The scaling exponents of allometric relationships between stem diameter and crown dimensions were higher in savannas than in forests. We identified that continental crown models were better than pantropical crown models and that continental differences in crown allometric relationships were driven by both stand‐level (wood density) and environmental (precipitation, cation exchange capacity and soil texture) variables for both tropical biomes. For a given diameter, forest trees from Asia and savanna trees from Australia had smaller crown dimensions than trees in Africa and America, with crown volumes for some Asian forest trees being smaller than those of trees in African forests. / Main conclusions: Our results provide new insight into geographical variability, with large continental differences in tropical tree crown allometry that were driven by stand‐level and environmental variables. They have implications for the assessment of ecosystem function and for the monitoring of woody biomass by remote sensing techniques in the global tropics

Effect of partners’ disgust responses on psychological wellbeing in cancer patients

The aim of this study was to explore quantitatively the relationship between disgust responses in cancer patients and their partners, and in turn their relationship to patients’ psychological well-being. We recruited 50 participants with heterogeneous cancer diagnoses and their partners from cancer-related groups (e.g., charities). Patients completed questionnaires to determine levels of disgust propensity, disgust sensitivity, self-disgust, and symptoms of anxiety and depression. Disgust propensity and sensitivity were also assessed in their partners. Partners’ disgust sensitivity was significantly positively correlated with cancer patients’ self-disgust, disgust propensity, and depression. Path analyses suggested that patients’ self-disgust plays a role in mediating the effect of partners’ disgust sensitivity on patients’ psychological well-being. This study provides the first quantitative evidence that psychological well-being in cancer patients is contingent on their partners’ sensitivity to disgust, and that patients’ self-disgust plays a mediating role. Focusing therapeutically on disgust responses could well be beneficial to people with cancer

Long-Lived Mesoscale Systems in a Low-Convective Inhibition Environment. Part I: Upshear Propagation

Dynamical models of organized mesoscale convective systems have identified the important features that help maintain their overarching structure and longevity. The standard model is the trailing stratiform archetype, featuring a front-to-rear ascending circulation, a mesoscale downdraft circulation, and a cold pool/density current that affects the propagation speed and the maintenance of the system. However, this model does not represent all types of mesoscale convective systems, especially in moist environments where the evaporation-driven cold pools are weak and the convective inhibition is small. Moreover, questions remain about the role of gravity waves in creating and maintaining organized systems and affecting their propagation speed. This study presents simulations and dynamical models of self-organizing convection in a moist, low–convective inhibition environment and examines the long-lived convective regimes that emerge spontaneously. This paper, which is Part I of this study, specifically examines the structure, kinematics, and maintenance of long-lived, upshear-propagating convective systems that differ in important respects from the standard model of long-lived convective systems. Linear theory demonstrates the role of ducted gravity waves in maintaining the long-lived, upshear-propagating systems. A steady nonlinear model approximates the dynamics of upshear-propagating density currents that are key to the maintenance of the mesoscale convective system

Long-Lived Mesoscale Systems in a Low-Convective Inhibition Environment. Part II: Downshear Propagation

Part II of this study of long-lived convective systems in a tropical environment focuses on forward-tilted, downshear-propagating systems that emerge spontaneously from idealized numerical simulations. These systems differ in important ways from the standard mesoscale convective system that is characterized by a rearward-tilted circulation with a trailing stratiform region, an overturning updraft, and a mesoscale downdraft. In contrast to this standard mesoscale system, the downshear-propagating system considered here does not feature a mesoscale downdraft and, although there is a cold pool it is of secondary importance to the propagation and maintenance of the system. The mesoscale downdraft is replaced by hydraulic-jump-like ascent beneath an elevated, forward-tilted overturning updraft with negligible convective available potential energy. Therefore, the mesoscale circulation is sustained almost entirely by the work done by the horizontal pressure gradient and the kinetic energy available from environmental shear. This category of organization is examined by cloud-system-resolving simulations and approximated by a nonlinear archetypal model of the quasi-steady Lagrangian-mean mesoscale circulation

Insights into convective momentum transport and its parametrization from idealized simulations of organized convection

Royal Meteorological Society Deep convection is a multiscale process that influences the budgets of heat, moisture and momentum significantly. In global climate models, the thermodynamic effects of convection are normally treated by parametrization schemes, with a separate formulation for convective momentum transport (CMT). The schemes for current thermodynamic and momentum parametrizations are based on upright entraining plume models that do not account for vertically tilted mesoscale circulations, which characterize organized convection in sheared environments. The associated countergradient vertical transport of horizontal momentum fundamentally affects dynamical interactions between the convection and the mean flow. This study examines the CMT properties of simulated idealized mesoscale convective systems, including their sensitivity to horizontal resolution, domain size and lateral boundary conditions. It is found that, even for large domains, the horizontal gradient terms are important, especially the mesoscale pressure gradients, which are neglected in CMT parametrizations. A nonlinear analytic model provides a dynamical foundation for the effects of convective organization, including the role of the horizontal pressure gradient. It is found that a small computational domain affects the convective organization adversely by generating artificially large compensating subsidence and an unrealistic evolution of CMT. Finally, analyses of the cross-updraught/downdraught pressure gradients expose significant uncertainties in their representation in contemporary CMT parametrization schemes