The Credit Channel Transmission of Monetary Policy in Tunisia

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the importance of the credit channel in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Tunisia. Using a VAR approach, we attempt to empirically examine the responses of the main aggregates of the Tunisian economy to monetary policy shocks over the period 1965-2015. Our empirical results showed that credit has a significant effect on investment and inflation. Indeed, the cointegration relationship, coupled with the weak exogeneity test, shows that credit is an endogenous variable and therefore the long-term equation found is a credit equation. The crucial role of credit channel is argued by the goal of price stability expected by any monetary policy. The analysis of monetary shocks shows the importance of exchange rate policy and the local currency devaluation on the financing mode. It is observed that Tunisian economy is dominated by external conditions. This dominance is confirmed by extensive using of external debts and trade agreements with the dominant countries. Ultimately, our findings suggest that policymakers should act on the level of economic activity and inflation, on two terms. The first is in short-run, by acting on the interest rate and the second is in long-run, by controlling the exchange rate

A Monetary Conditions Index and its Application on Tunisian Economic Forecasting

The main purpose of this article is to find out the extent of the influence of internal and external monetary conditions on Tunisian macroeconomic aggregates by constructing a synthetic index. Our contribution is, firstly, to calculate the weights assigned to domestic interest rate and the exchange rate based on the estimated coefficients respectively for these two indicators over the period 1965-2015. Secondly, based on the VAR model, we confirm the long-run dynamic between the selected variables. The analysis of shocks indicates that monetary conditions have a particular importance via their influence on economic activity and inflation. The latter is characterized by its significant negative impact on economic growth and by its contribution in linking between internal and external interest rates. Thirdly, we attempt, through a SVAR model, to examine the short run structural dynamics between the selected variables. Results reveal that the Tunisian economy is highly influenced by external monetary conditions. This influence is demonstrated through the dynamics of structural monetary policy shocks and exchange rate. In conclusion, our findings reflect that the exchange rate plays an increasing role in transmitting the monetary policy effect to the inflation rate and thus the real economy

A Monetary Conditions Index and its Application on Tunisian Economic Forecasting

The main purpose of this article is to find out the extent of the influence of internal and external monetary conditions on Tunisian macroeconomic aggregates by constructing a synthetic index. Our contribution is, firstly, to calculate the weights assigned to domestic interest rate and the exchange rate based on the estimated coefficients respectively for these two indicators over the period 1965-2015. Secondly, based on the VAR model, we confirm the long-run dynamic between the selected variables. The analysis of shocks indicates that monetary conditions have a particular importance via their influence on economic activity and inflation. The latter is characterized by its significant negative impact on economic growth and by its contribution in linking between internal and external interest rates. Thirdly, we attempt, through a SVAR model, to examine the short run structural dynamics between the selected variables. Results reveal that the Tunisian economy is highly influenced by external monetary conditions. This influence is demonstrated through the dynamics of structural monetary policy shocks and exchange rate. In conclusion, our findings reflect that the exchange rate plays an increasing role in transmitting the monetary policy effect to the inflation rate and thus the real economy

The Credit Channel Transmission of Monetary Policy in Tunisia

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the importance of the credit channel in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Tunisia. Using a VAR approach, we attempt to empirically examine the responses of the main aggregates of the Tunisian economy to monetary policy shocks over the period 1965-2015. Our empirical results showed that credit has a significant effect on investment and inflation. Indeed, the cointegration relationship, coupled with the weak exogeneity test, shows that credit is an endogenous variable and therefore the long-term equation found is a credit equation. The crucial role of credit channel is argued by the goal of price stability expected by any monetary policy. The analysis of monetary shocks shows the importance of exchange rate policy and the local currency devaluation on the financing mode. It is observed that Tunisian economy is dominated by external conditions. This dominance is confirmed by extensive using of external debts and trade agreements with the dominant countries. Ultimately, our findings suggest that policymakers should act on the level of economic activity and inflation, on two terms. The first is in short-run, by acting on the interest rate and the second is in long-run, by controlling the exchange rate

Modeling drivers to big data analytics in supply chains

The recent emergence of data-driven business markets and the ineligibility of traditional data management systems to trace them have fostered the application of Big Data Analytics (BDA) in supply chains of the present decade. Literature reviews reveal that the successful implication of BDA in a supply chain mainly depends on some key drivers considering the size and operations of an organization. However, collective analysis of all these drivers is still neglected in the existing research field. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to identify and prioritize the most significant drivers of BDA in the supply chains. To this aim, a novel Best-worst method (BWM) based framework has been proposed, which has successfully identified and sequenced the twelve most significant drivers with the help of previous literature and experts’ opinions. Theoretically, this study contributes to the BDA literature by offering some unique drivers to BDA in supply chains. The findings show that ‘sophisticated structure of information technology’ and ‘group collaboration among business partners’ are the top most significant drivers. ‘Digitization of society’ is identified as the least significant driver of BDA in this study. The outcome of this study is expected to assist the industry managers to find out the most and least preferable drivers in their supply chains and then take initiatives to improve the overall efficiency of their organizations accordingly

Women's empowerment: what works

With radical roots in the 1980s, women’s empowerment is now a mainstream development concern. Much of the narrative focuses on instrumental gains—what women can do for development rather than what development can do for women. Empowerment is treated as a destination reached through development’s equivalent of motorways: programmes rolled out over any terrain. But in the process, pathways women are travelling in their own individual or collective journeys of empowerment remain hidden. Revisiting foundational feminist work on empowerment, this article draws on findings from multi-country research programme, Pathways of Women’s Empowerment, to explore what works to support these journeys

Global variation in anastomosis and end colostomy formation following left-sided colorectal resection

Background End colostomy rates following colorectal resection vary across institutions in high-income settings, being influenced by patient, disease, surgeon and system factors. This study aimed to assess global variation in end colostomy rates after left-sided colorectal resection. Methods This study comprised an analysis of GlobalSurg-1 and -2 international, prospective, observational cohort studies (2014, 2016), including consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency left-sided colorectal resection within discrete 2-week windows. Countries were grouped into high-, middle- and low-income tertiles according to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Factors associated with colostomy formation versus primary anastomosis were explored using a multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model. Results In total, 1635 patients from 242 hospitals in 57 countries undergoing left-sided colorectal resection were included: 113 (6·9 per cent) from low-HDI, 254 (15·5 per cent) from middle-HDI and 1268 (77·6 per cent) from high-HDI countries. There was a higher proportion of patients with perforated disease (57·5, 40·9 and 35·4 per cent; P < 0·001) and subsequent use of end colostomy (52·2, 24·8 and 18·9 per cent; P < 0·001) in low- compared with middle- and high-HDI settings. The association with colostomy use in low-HDI settings persisted (odds ratio (OR) 3·20, 95 per cent c.i. 1·35 to 7·57; P = 0·008) after risk adjustment for malignant disease (OR 2·34, 1·65 to 3·32; P < 0·001), emergency surgery (OR 4·08, 2·73 to 6·10; P < 0·001), time to operation at least 48 h (OR 1·99, 1·28 to 3·09; P = 0·002) and disease perforation (OR 4·00, 2·81 to 5·69; P < 0·001). Conclusion Global differences existed in the proportion of patients receiving end stomas after left-sided colorectal resection based on income, which went beyond case mix alone

A randomized placebo controlled trial of the effect of preoperative statin use on matrix metalloproteinases and tissue inhibitors of matrix metalloproteinases in areas of low and peak wall stress in patients undergoing elective open repair of abdominal ao

BackgroundA double-blind, randomized controlled trial was carried out to study the effects of statins on matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and tissue inhibitors of matrix metalloproteinases (TIMPs) in areas of peak and low abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) wall stress.MethodsA total of 40 patients undergoing elective open AAA repair were randomized to receive either atorvastatin 80 mg (n = 20) or placebo (n = 20) for 4 weeks preoperatively. Finite element analysis was used to determine AAA wall stress distribution. Full thickness aortic samples were obtained at surgery from areas of low and peak wall stress, snap-frozen, and stored at -80°C for subsequent MMP-2, -8, and -9 and TIMP-1 and -2 analyses. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 16.0 (SPSS Inc, Chicago, IL).ResultsBoth groups were well matched (p > 0.05) regarding age, gender, comorbidities, and duration of hospital stay. There were no statistically significant differences in levels of MMPs and TIMPs between the statin and placebo group and between areas of low and peak AAA wall stress.ConclusionThe short-term use of statins is not associated in reducing levels of MMP 2, 8, and 9 and TIMP-1 and -2 in areas of low and peak wall stress in patients with AAA