Following the rivers: historical reconstruction of California voles Microtus californicus (Rodentia: Cricetidae) in the deserts of eastern California

The California vole, Microtus californicus, restricted to habitat patches where water is available nearly year-round, is a remnant of the mesic history of the southern Great Basin and Mojave deserts of eastern California. The history of voles in this region is a model for species-edge population dynamics through periods of climatic change. We sampled voles from the eastern deserts of California and examined variation in the mitochondrial cytb gene, three nuclear intron regions, and across 12 nuclear microsatellite markers. Samples are allocated to two mitochondrial clades: one associated with southern California and the other with central and northern California. The limited mtDNA structure largely recovers the geographical distribution, replicated by both nuclear introns and microsatellites. The most remote population, Microtus californicus scirpensis at Tecopa near Death Valley, was the most distinct. This population shares microsatellite alleles with both mtDNA clades, and both its northern clade nuclear introns and southern clade mtDNA sequences support a hybrid origin for this endangered population. The overall patterns support two major invasions into the desert through an ancient system of riparian corridors along streams and lake margins during the latter part of the Pleistocene followed by local in situ divergence subsequent to late Pleistocene and Holocene drying events. Changes in current water resource use could easily remove California voles from parts of the desert landscape

Risk Factors Associated with Opioid Use Among African American Faith-Based Populations

African Americans (AAs) in the Midwest are more likely to die from an opioid overdose compared to Whites, despite lower rates of use. Little is known about factors related to opioid use among AAs residing in the Midwest, particularly church-affiliated AAs. AAs have the highest rate of church attendance among all racial/ethnic groups, and the Black Church may be an appropriate setting for prevention efforts. The present study sought to better understand factors related to opioid use among Midwestern church-affiliated AAs to inform future faith-based interventions. This study examined predictors of opioid use (ever) using survey data from Taking It to the Pews (TIPS), a faith-based HIV/STD/hepatitis C virus (HCV) education and testing intervention conducted in 4 AA churches (N = 250) in the Kansas City metropolitan area. Participants were predominantly female (71%) and church members (74%), with an average age of 47. Fifty-three percent of participants reported prescription opioid use at some point in their lifetime. Logistic regression analyses indicated that those who reported opioid use in their lifetime attended church more frequently, less likely to be on Medicaid, had a history of severe pain, a history of illicit drug use, and a history of marijuana use. AA churches are in a uniquely positioned to reach church congregants and community members utilizing church outreach services. AA churches may benefit from offering lifestyle interventions, such as exercise classes and stress management programs, for pain management and to prevent misuse of prescription opioids

Linked randomised controlled trials of face-to-face and electronic brief intervention methods to prevent alcohol related harm in young people aged 14–17 years presenting to Emergency Departments (SIPS junior)

Background: Alcohol is a major global threat to public health. Although the main burden of chronic alcohol-related disease is in adults, its foundations often lie in adolescence. Alcohol consumption and related harm increase steeply from the age of 12 until 20 years. Several trials focusing upon young people have reported significant positive effects of brief interventions on a range of alcohol consumption outcomes. A recent review of reviews also suggests that electronic brief interventions (eBIs) using internet and smartphone technologies may markedly reduce alcohol consumption compared with minimal or no intervention controls. Interventions that target non-drinking youth are known to delay the onset of drinking behaviours. Web based alcohol interventions for adolescents also demonstrate significantly greater reductions in consumption and harm among ‘high-risk’ drinkers; however changes in risk status at follow-up for non-drinkers or low-risk drinkers have not been assessed in controlled trials of brief alcohol interventions

An efficient semiparametric maxima estimator of the extremal index

The extremal index $\theta$, a measure of the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary process, plays an important role in extreme value analyses. We estimate $\theta$ semiparametrically, using the relationship between the distribution of block maxima and the marginal distribution of a process to define a semiparametric model. We show that these semiparametric estimators are simpler and substantially more efficient than their parametric counterparts. We seek to improve efficiency further using maxima over sliding blocks. A simulation study shows that the semiparametric estimators are competitive with the leading estimators. An application to sea-surge heights combines inferences about $\theta$ with a standard extreme value analysis of block maxima to estimate marginal quantiles.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures. Minor edits made to version 1 prior to journal publication. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10687-015-0221-

The Effectiveness of Alcohol Screening and Brief Intervention in Emergency Departments: A Multicentre Pragmatic Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND: Alcohol misuse is common in people attending emergency departments (EDs) and there is some evidence of efficacy of alcohol screening and brief interventions (SBI). This study investigated the effectiveness of SBI approaches of different intensities delivered by ED staff in nine typical EDs in England: the SIPS ED trial. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Pragmatic multicentre cluster randomized controlled trial of SBI for hazardous and harmful drinkers presenting to ED. Nine EDs were randomized to three conditions: a patient information leaflet (PIL), 5 minutes of brief advice (BA), and referral to an alcohol health worker who provided 20 minutes of brief lifestyle counseling (BLC). The primary outcome measure was the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) status at 6 months. Of 5899 patients aged 18 or more presenting to EDs, 3737 (63·3%) were eligible to participate and 1497 (40·1%) screened positive for hazardous or harmful drinking, of whom 1204 (80·4%) gave consent to participate in the trial. Follow up rates were 72% (n?=?863) at six, and 67% (n?=?810) at 12 months. There was no evidence of any differences between intervention conditions for AUDIT status or any other outcome measures at months 6 or 12 in an intention to treat analysis. At month 6, compared to the PIL group, the odds ratio of being AUDIT negative for brief advice was 1·103 (95% CI 0·328 to 3·715). The odds ratio comparing BLC to PIL was 1·247 (95% CI 0·315 to 4·939). A per protocol analysis confirmed these findings. CONCLUSIONS: SBI is difficult to implement in typical EDs. The results do not support widespread implementation of alcohol SBI in ED beyond screening followed by simple clinical feedback and alcohol information, which is likely to be easier and less expensive to implement than more complex interventions

Towards resolving the phosphorus chaos created by food systems

© 2019, The Author(s). The chaotic distribution and dispersal of phosphorus (P) used in food systems (defined here as disorderly disruptions to the P cycle) is harming our environment beyond acceptable limits. An analysis of P stores and flows across Europe in 2005 showed that high fertiliser P inputs relative to productive outputs was driving low system P efficiency (38 % overall). Regional P imbalance (P surplus) and system P losses were highly correlated to total system P inputs and animal densities, causing unnecessary P accumulation in soils and rivers. Reducing regional P surpluses to zero increased system P efficiency (+ 16 %) and decreased total P losses by 35 %, but required a reduction in system P inputs of ca. 40 %, largely as fertiliser. We discuss transdisciplinary and transformative solutions that tackle the P chaos by collective stakeholder actions across the entire food value chain. Lowering system P demand and better regional governance of P resources appear necessary for more efficient and sustainable food systems

The associations of economic growth and anaemia for school-aged children in China

Economic growth has brought improvements in many areas of child health, but its effects on anaemia among school-aged children remain unknown. However, this is important because iron deficiency anaemia is common and is the main cause of disability-adjusted life years for school-aged children. In this study, we included 429,222 Chinese children aged 7–17 years from five consecutive national cross-sectional surveys during 1995–2014. Using altitude-adjusted haemoglobin concentration measured from capillary blood samples, we defined anaemia status according to World Health Organization's recommendation. We used logistic regressions weighted by provincial population to examine the association between provincial gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and anaemia, adjusting for sex, age, urban–rural location, regional socio-economic status (SES), fixed effect of province, and clustering of schools. We used generalised additive mixed models to evaluate a potentially non-linear relationship. For each 100% growth in GDP per capita, there was a 40% (odds ratio [OR] = 0.60; 95% confidence interval [CI; 0.56, 0.65]) reduction in anaemia. However, the association was weaker for girls and in cities with a lower SES. The association was weaker across 2005–2014 (OR = 0.75, 95% CI [0.62, 0.90]) compared with 1995–2005 (OR = 0.52; 95% CI [0.44, 0.61]), reflecting a weaker association when GDP per capita reaches around $2,000. The results were similar for moderate-to-severe anaemia. We concluded that economic growth has been associated with reductions in anaemia among school-aged children in China but with fewer benefits for girls and those in poorer settings. Further economic development in China is unlikely to bring similar reductions in anaemia, suggesting that additional population level and targeted interventions will be needed

Retinal Biomarker Discovery for Dementia in an Elderly Diabetic Population

Dementia is a devastating disease, and has severe implications on affected individuals, their family and wider society. A growing body of literature is studying the association of retinal microvasculature measurement with dementia. We present a pilot study testing the strength of groups of conventional (semantic) and texture-based (non-semantic) measurements extracted from retinal fundus camera images to classify patients with and without dementia. We performed a 500-trial bootstrap analysis with regularized logistic regression on a cohort of 1,742 elderly diabetic individuals (median age 72.2). Age was the strongest predictor for this elderly cohort. Semantic retinal measurements featured in up to 81% of the bootstrap trials, with arterial caliber and optic disk size chosen most often, suggesting that they do complement age when selected together in a classifier. Textural features were able to train classifiers that match the performance of age, suggesting they are potentially a rich source of information for dementia outcome classification