Stillbirth risk prediction using machine learning for a large cohort of births from Western Australia, 1980–2015

Quantification of stillbirth risk has potential to support clinical decision-making. Studies that have attempted to quantify stillbirth risk have been hampered by small event rates, a limited range of predictors that typically exclude obstetric history, lack of validation, and restriction to a single classifier (logistic regression). Consequently, predictive performance remains low, and risk quantification has not been adopted into antenatal practice. The study population consisted of all births to women in Western Australia from 1980 to 2015, excluding terminations. After all exclusions there were 947,025 livebirths and 5,788 stillbirths. Predictive models for stillbirth were developed using multiple machine learning classifiers: regularised logistic regression, decision trees based on classification and regression trees, random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and a multilayer perceptron neural network. We applied 10-fold cross-validation using independent data not used to develop the models. Predictors included maternal socio-demographic characteristics, chronic medical conditions, obstetric complications and family history in both the current and previous pregnancy. In this cohort, 66% of stillbirths were observed for multiparous women. The best performing classifier (XGBoost) predicted 45% (95% CI: 43%, 46%) of stillbirths for all women and 45% (95% CI: 43%, 47%) of stillbirths after the inclusion of previous pregnancy history. Almost half of stillbirths could be potentially identified antenatally based on a combination of current pregnancy complications, congenital anomalies, maternal characteristics, and medical history. Greatest sensitivity is achieved with addition of current pregnancy complications. Ensemble classifiers offered marginal improvement for prediction compared to logistic regression

Stillbirth risk prediction using machine learning for a large cohort of births from Western Australia, 1980–2015

Quantification of stillbirth risk has potential to support clinical decision-making. Studies that have attempted to quantify stillbirth risk have been hampered by small event rates, a limited range of predictors that typically exclude obstetric history, lack of validation, and restriction to a single classifier (logistic regression). Consequently, predictive performance remains low, and risk quantification has not been adopted into antenatal practice. The study population consisted of all births to women in Western Australia from 1980 to 2015, excluding terminations. After all exclusions there were 947,025 livebirths and 5,788 stillbirths. Predictive models for stillbirth were developed using multiple machine learning classifiers: regularised logistic regression, decision trees based on classification and regression trees, random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and a multilayer perceptron neural network. We applied 10-fold cross-validation using independent data not used to develop the models. Predictors included maternal socio-demographic characteristics, chronic medical conditions, obstetric complications and family history in both the current and previous pregnancy. In this cohort, 66% of stillbirths were observed for multiparous women. The best performing classifier (XGBoost) predicted 45% (95% CI: 43%, 46%) of stillbirths for all women and 45% (95% CI: 43%, 47%) of stillbirths after the inclusion of previous pregnancy history. Almost half of stillbirths could be potentially identified antenatally based on a combination of current pregnancy complications, congenital anomalies, maternal characteristics, and medical history. Greatest sensitivity is achieved with addition of current pregnancy complications. Ensemble classifiers offered marginal improvement for prediction compared to logistic regression

Double-stranded RNA innate immune response activation from long-term adeno-associated virus vector transduction

Data from clinical trials for hemophilia B using adeno-associated virus (AAV) vectors have demonstrated decreased transgenic coagulation factor IX (hFIX) expression 6-10 weeks after administration of a high vector dose. While it is likely that capsid-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes eliminate vector-transduced hepatocytes, thereby resulting in decreased hFIX, this observation is not intuitively consistent with restored hFIX levels following prednisone application. Although the innate immune response is immediately activated following AAV vector infection via TLR pathways, no studies exist regarding the role of the innate immune response at later time points after AAV vector transduction. Herein, activation of the innate immune response in cell lines, primary human hepatocytes, and hepatocytes in a human chimeric mouse model was observed at later time points following AAV vector transduction. Mechanistic analysis demonstrated that the double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) sensor MDA5 was necessary for innate immune response activation and that transient knockdown of MDA5, or MAVS, decreased IFN-β expression while increasing transgene production in AAV-transduced cells. These results both highlight the role of the dsRNA-triggered innate immune response in therapeutic transgene expression at later time points following AAV transduction and facilitate the execution of effective strategies to block the dsRNA innate immune response in future clinical trials

Heavy Quarks and Heavy Quarkonia as Tests of Thermalization

We present here a brief summary of new results on heavy quarks and heavy quarkonia from the PHENIX experiment as presented at the "Quark Gluon Plasma Thermalization" Workshop in Vienna, Austria in August 2005, directly following the International Quark Matter Conference in Hungary.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, Quark Gluon Plasma Thermalization Workshop (Vienna August 2005) Proceeding

Single Electrons from Heavy Flavor Decays in p+p Collisions at sqrt(s) = 200 GeV

The invariant differential cross section for inclusive electron production in p+p collisions at sqrt(s) = 200 GeV has been measured by the PHENIX experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider over the transverse momentum range $0.4 <= p_T <= 5.0 GeV/c at midrapidity (eta <= 0.35). The contribution to the inclusive electron spectrum from semileptonic decays of hadrons carrying heavy flavor, i.e. charm quarks or, at high p_T, bottom quarks, is determined via three independent methods. The resulting electron spectrum from heavy flavor decays is compared to recent leading and next-to-leading order perturbative QCD calculations. The total cross section of charm quark-antiquark pair production is determined as sigma_(c c^bar) = 0.92 +/- 0.15 (stat.) +- 0.54 (sys.) mb.Comment: 329 authors, 6 pages text, 3 figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Nuclear Modification of Electron Spectra and Implications for Heavy Quark Energy Loss in Au+Au Collisions at sqrt(s_NN)=200 GeV

The PHENIX experiment has measured mid-rapidity transverse momentum spectra (0.4 < p_T < 5.0 GeV/c) of electrons as a function of centrality in Au+Au collisions at sqrt(s_NN)=200 GeV. Contributions from photon conversions and from light hadron decays, mainly Dalitz decays of pi^0 and eta mesons, were removed. The resulting non-photonic electron spectra are primarily due to the semi-leptonic decays of hadrons carrying heavy quarks. Nuclear modification factors were determined by comparison to non-photonic electrons in p+p collisions. A significant suppression of electrons at high p_T is observed in central Au+Au collisions, indicating substantial energy loss of heavy quarks.Comment: 330 authors, 6 pages text, 3 figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Measurement of Transverse Single-Spin Asymmetries for Mid-rapidity Production of Neutral Pions and Charged Hadrons in Polarized p+p Collisions at sqrt(s) = 200 GeV

The transverse single-spin asymmetries of neutral pions and non-identified charged hadrons have been measured at mid-rapidity in polarized proton-proton collisions at sqrt(s) = 200 GeV. The data cover a transverse momentum (p_T) range 0.5-5.0 GeV/c for charged hadrons and 1.0-5.0 GeV/c for neutral pions, at a Feynman-x (x_F) value of approximately zero. The asymmetries seen in this previously unexplored kinematic region are consistent with zero within statistical errors of a few percent. In addition, the inclusive charged hadron cross section at mid-rapidity from 0.5 < p_T < 7.0 GeV/c is presented and compared to NLO pQCD calculations. Successful description of the unpolarized cross section above ~2 GeV/c using NLO pQCD suggests that pQCD is applicable in the interpretation of the asymmetry results in the relevant kinematic range.Comment: 331 authors, 6 pages text, 2 figures, 3 tables. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

System Size and Energy Dependence of Jet-Induced Hadron Pair Correlation Shapes in Cu+Cu and Au+Au Collisions at sqrt(s_NN) = 200 and 62.4 GeV

We present azimuthal angle correlations of intermediate transverse momentum (1-4 GeV/c) hadrons from {dijets} in Cu+Cu and Au+Au collisions at sqrt(s_NN) = 62.4 and 200 GeV. The away-side dijet induced azimuthal correlation is broadened, non-Gaussian, and peaked away from \Delta\phi=\pi in central and semi-central collisions in all the systems. The broadening and peak location are found to depend upon the number of participants in the collision, but not on the collision energy or beam nuclei. These results are consistent with sound or shock wave models, but pose challenges to Cherenkov gluon radiation models.Comment: 464 authors from 60 institutions, 6 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to Physical Review Letters. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Improved Measurement of Double Helicity Asymmetry in Inclusive Midrapidity pi^0 Production for Polarized p+p Collisions at sqrt(s)=200 GeV

We present an improved measurement of the double helicity asymmetry for pi^0 production in polarized proton-proton scattering at sqrt(s) = 200 GeV employing the PHENIX detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The improvements to our previous measurement come from two main factors: Inclusion of a new data set from the 2004 RHIC run with higher beam polarizations than the earlier run and a recalibration of the beam polarization measurements, which resulted in reduced uncertainties and increased beam polarizations. The results are compared to a Next to Leading Order (NLO) perturbative Quantum Chromodynamics (pQCD) calculation with a range of polarized gluon distributions.Comment: 389 authors, 4 pages, 2 tables, 1 figure. Submitted to Phys. Rev. D, Rapid Communications. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm

Formation of dense partonic matter in relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions at RHIC: Experimental evaluation by the PHENIX collaboration

Extensive experimental data from high-energy nucleus-nucleus collisions were recorded using the PHENIX detector at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The comprehensive set of measurements from the first three years of RHIC operation includes charged particle multiplicities, transverse energy, yield ratios and spectra of identified hadrons in a wide range of transverse momenta (p_T), elliptic flow, two-particle correlations, non-statistical fluctuations, and suppression of particle production at high p_T. The results are examined with an emphasis on implications for the formation of a new state of dense matter. We find that the state of matter created at RHIC cannot be described in terms of ordinary color neutral hadrons.Comment: 510 authors, 127 pages text, 56 figures, 1 tables, LaTeX. Submitted to Nuclear Physics A as a regular article; v3 has minor changes in response to referee comments. Plain text data tables for the points plotted in figures for this and previous PHENIX publications are (or will be) publicly available at http://www.phenix.bnl.gov/papers.htm