Active Galactic Nuclei at the Crossroads of Astrophysics

Over the last five decades, AGN studies have produced a number of spectacular examples of synergies and multifaceted approaches in astrophysics. The field of AGN research now spans the entire spectral range and covers more than twelve orders of magnitude in the spatial and temporal domains. The next generation of astrophysical facilities will open up new possibilities for AGN studies, especially in the areas of high-resolution and high-fidelity imaging and spectroscopy of nuclear regions in the X-ray, optical, and radio bands. These studies will address in detail a number of critical issues in AGN research such as processes in the immediate vicinity of supermassive black holes, physical conditions of broad-line and narrow-line regions, formation and evolution of accretion disks and relativistic outflows, and the connection between nuclear activity and galaxy evolution.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures; review contribution; "Exploring the Cosmic Frontier: Astrophysical Instruments for the 21st Century", ESO Astrophysical Symposia Serie

Probabilistic solar wind and geomagnetic forecasting using an analogue ensemble or "Similar Day" approach

Effective space-weather prediction and mitigation requires accurate forecasting of near-Earth solar-wind conditions. Numerical magnetohydrodynamic models of the solar wind, driven by remote solar observations, are gaining skill at forecasting the large-scale solar-wind features that give rise to near-Earth variations over days and weeks. There remains a need for accurate short-term (hours to days) solar-wind forecasts, however. In this study we investigate the analogue ensemble (AnEn), or “similar day”, approach that was developed for atmospheric weather forecasting. The central premise of the AnEn is that past variations that are analogous or similar to current conditions can be used to provide a good estimate of future variations. By considering an ensemble of past analogues, the AnEn forecast is inherently probabilistic and provides a measure of the forecast uncertainty. We show that forecasts of solar-wind speed can be improved by considering both speed and density when determining past analogues, whereas forecasts of the out-of-ecliptic magnetic field [ BNBN ] are improved by also considering the in-ecliptic magnetic-field components. In general, the best forecasts are found by considering only the previous 6 – 12 hours of observations. Using these parameters, the AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast for solar-wind speed, density, and in-ecliptic magnetic field over lead times from a few hours to around four days. For BNBN , which is central to space-weather disturbance, the AnEn only provides a valuable forecast out to around six to seven hours. As the inherent predictability of this parameter is low, this is still likely a marked improvement over other forecast methods. We also investigate the use of the AnEn in forecasting geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp. The AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast of both indices out to around four days. We outline a number of future improvements to AnEn forecasts of near-Earth solar-wind and geomagnetic conditions

Origins of the Ambient Solar Wind: Implications for Space Weather

The Sun's outer atmosphere is heated to temperatures of millions of degrees, and solar plasma flows out into interplanetary space at supersonic speeds. This paper reviews our current understanding of these interrelated problems: coronal heating and the acceleration of the ambient solar wind. We also discuss where the community stands in its ability to forecast how variations in the solar wind (i.e., fast and slow wind streams) impact the Earth. Although the last few decades have seen significant progress in observations and modeling, we still do not have a complete understanding of the relevant physical processes, nor do we have a quantitatively precise census of which coronal structures contribute to specific types of solar wind. Fast streams are known to be connected to the central regions of large coronal holes. Slow streams, however, appear to come from a wide range of sources, including streamers, pseudostreamers, coronal loops, active regions, and coronal hole boundaries. Complicating our understanding even more is the fact that processes such as turbulence, stream-stream interactions, and Coulomb collisions can make it difficult to unambiguously map a parcel measured at 1 AU back down to its coronal source. We also review recent progress -- in theoretical modeling, observational data analysis, and forecasting techniques that sit at the interface between data and theory -- that gives us hope that the above problems are indeed solvable.Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews. Special issue connected with a 2016 ISSI workshop on "The Scientific Foundations of Space Weather." 44 pages, 9 figure

School-based prevention for adolescent Internet addiction: prevention is the key. A systematic literature review

Adolescents’ media use represents a normative need for information, communication, recreation and functionality, yet problematic Internet use has increased. Given the arguably alarming prevalence rates worldwide and the increasingly problematic use of gaming and social media, the need for an integration of prevention efforts appears to be timely. The aim of this systematic literature review is (i) to identify school-based prevention programmes or protocols for Internet Addiction targeting adolescents within the school context and to examine the programmes’ effectiveness, and (ii) to highlight strengths, limitations, and best practices to inform the design of new initiatives, by capitalizing on these studies’ recommendations. The findings of the reviewed studies to date presented mixed outcomes and are in need of further empirical evidence. The current review identified the following needs to be addressed in future designs to: (i) define the clinical status of Internet Addiction more precisely, (ii) use more current psychometrically robust assessment tools for the measurement of effectiveness (based on the most recent empirical developments), (iii) reconsider the main outcome of Internet time reduction as it appears to be problematic, (iv) build methodologically sound evidence-based prevention programmes, (v) focus on skill enhancement and the use of protective and harm-reducing factors, and (vi) include IA as one of the risk behaviours in multi-risk behaviour interventions. These appear to be crucial factors in addressing future research designs and the formulation of new prevention initiatives. Validated findings could then inform promising strategies for IA and gaming prevention in public policy and education

The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather

The magnetosphere is the lens through which solar space weather phenomena are focused and directed towards the Earth. In particular, the non-linear interaction of the solar wind with the Earth's magnetic field leads to the formation of highly inhomogenous electrical currents in the ionosphere which can ultimately result in damage to and problems with the operation of power distribution networks. Since electric power is the fundamental cornerstone of modern life, the interruption of power is the primary pathway by which space weather has impact on human activity and technology. Consequently, in the context of space weather, it is the ability to predict geomagnetic activity that is of key importance. This is usually stated in terms of geomagnetic storms, but we argue that in fact it is the substorm phenomenon which contains the crucial physics, and therefore prediction of substorm occurrence, severity and duration, either within the context of a longer-lasting geomagnetic storm, but potentially also as an isolated event, is of critical importance. Here we review the physics of the magnetosphere in the frame of space weather forecasting, focusing on recent results, current understanding, and an assessment of probable future developments.Peer reviewe

Matrix-Induced Autologous Chondrocyte Implantation With Autologous Bone Grafting for Osteochondral Lesions of the Femoral Trochlea

Matrix-induced autologous chondrocyte implantation is a 2-stage surgical procedure used to treat symptomatic, full-thickness chondral lesions of the knee. This third-generation autologous chondrocyte implantation (ACI) technique improves on the limitations of previous methods, including the risk of uneven chondrocyte distribution at the time of implantation and graft hypertrophy. Given the compliant properties of the scaffold, the graft can be easily shaped to treat irregular chondral defects and applied to articular surfaces with multiplanar geometry (e.g., patella, trochlea). Although ACI techniques are ideally suited to treat chondral surface defects, the ACI “sandwich” technique can be used to treat large osteochondral defects with significant bone loss (>8 mm). Historically, this procedure uses autologous bone graft to replace areas of osseous deficiency along with 2 type I/III collagen bilayer membranes to securely contain the cultured chondrocytes within the defect. We present an analogous technique for the treatment of osteochondral lesions of the femoral trochlea using a single matrix-induced ACI scaffold and autologous bone grafting for a segmental osseous defect

Fresh Osteochondral Allograft Transplantation for Uncontained, Elongated Osteochondritis Dissecans Lesions of the Medial Femoral Condyle

Osteochondritis dissecans (OCD) lesions of the knee are a significant source of pain and disability. Although the pathologic process for this condition remains poorly understood, histologic studies suggest vascular insufficiency of the subchondral bone may be the underlying cause for focal necrosis and subsequent compromise of the overlying articular cartilage. These lesions most commonly affect the medial femoral condyle and can be found along the margins of the intercondylar notch. Because of significant bone involvement, osteochondral allograft (OCA) transplantation has emerged as a dominant treatment option for OCD lesions because it can accurately restore the entire osteochondral unit. Given the characteristic location and large, irregular shapes of these lesions, surgical management can be challenging. These lesions are often uncontained along the periphery of the condyle, which can compromise OCA graft fixation and healing. We describe our preferred technique for the treatment of large, uncontained OCD lesions of the medial femoral condyle using a unicompartmental OCA augmented with screw fixation

A Gray-Box Model for a Probabilistic Estimate of Regional Ground Magnetic Perturbations: Enhancing the NOAA Operational Geospace Model With Machine Learning

We present a novel algorithm that predicts the probability that the time derivative of the horizontal component of the ground magnetic field dB/dt exceeds a specified threshold at a given location. This quantity provides important information that is physically relevant to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs), which are electric currents associated with sudden changes in the Earth's magnetic field due to space weather events. The model follows a “gray-box” approach by combining the output of a physics-based model with machine learning. Specifically, we combine the University of Michigan's Geospace model that is operational at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center, with a boosted ensemble of classification trees. We discuss the problem of recalibrating the output of the decision tree to obtain reliable probabilities. The performance of the model is assessed by typical metrics for probabilistic forecasts: Probability of Detection and False Detection, True Skill Statistic, Heidke Skill Score, and Receiver Operating Characteristic curve. We show that the ML-enhanced algorithm consistently improves all the metrics considered

Data and code for paper "A gray-box model for a probabilistic estimate of regional ground magnetic perturbations: Enhancing the NOAA operational Geospace model with machine learning"

Simulation results from the NOAA/SWPC Geospace model used in the paper Camporeale et al. (2020) "A gray-box model for a probabilistic estimate of regional ground magnetic perturbations: Enhancing the NOAA operational Geospace model with machine learning" published in J. Geophys. Res. (2020