55 research outputs found

    On Machine-Learned Classification of Variable Stars with Sparse and Noisy Time-Series Data

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    With the coming data deluge from synoptic surveys, there is a growing need for frameworks that can quickly and automatically produce calibrated classification probabilities for newly-observed variables based on a small number of time-series measurements. In this paper, we introduce a methodology for variable-star classification, drawing from modern machine-learning techniques. We describe how to homogenize the information gleaned from light curves by selection and computation of real-numbered metrics ("feature"), detail methods to robustly estimate periodic light-curve features, introduce tree-ensemble methods for accurate variable star classification, and show how to rigorously evaluate the classification results using cross validation. On a 25-class data set of 1542 well-studied variable stars, we achieve a 22.8% overall classification error using the random forest classifier; this represents a 24% improvement over the best previous classifier on these data. This methodology is effective for identifying samples of specific science classes: for pulsational variables used in Milky Way tomography we obtain a discovery efficiency of 98.2% and for eclipsing systems we find an efficiency of 99.1%, both at 95% purity. We show that the random forest (RF) classifier is superior to other machine-learned methods in terms of accuracy, speed, and relative immunity to features with no useful class information; the RF classifier can also be used to estimate the importance of each feature in classification. Additionally, we present the first astronomical use of hierarchical classification methods to incorporate a known class taxonomy in the classifier, which further reduces the catastrophic error rate to 7.8%. Excluding low-amplitude sources, our overall error rate improves to 14%, with a catastrophic error rate of 3.5%.Comment: 23 pages, 9 figure

    Combination therapy with oral treprostinil for pulmonary arterial hypertension. A double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial

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    Rationale: Oral treprostinil improves exercise capacity in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), but the effect on clinical outcomes was unknown. Objectives: To evaluate the effect of oral treprostinil compared with placebo on time to first adjudicated clinical worsening event in participants with PAH who recently began approved oral monotherapy. Methods: In this event-driven, double-blind study, we randomly allocated 690 participants (1:1 ratio) with PAH to receive placebo or oral treprostinil extended-release tablets three times daily. Eligible participants were using approved oral monotherapy for over 30 days before randomization and had a 6-minute-walk distance 150 m or greater. The primary endpoint was the time to first adjudicated clinical worsening event: death; hospitalization due to worsening PAH; initiation of inhaled or parenteral prostacyclin therapy; disease progression; or unsatisfactory long-term clinical response. Measurements and Main Results: Clinical worsening occurred in 26% of the oral treprostinil group compared with 36% of placebo participants (hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.56–0.97; P = 0.028). Key measures of disease status, including functional class, Borg dyspnea score, and N-terminal pro–brain natriuretic peptide, all favored oral treprostinil treatment at Week 24 and beyond. A noninvasive risk stratification analysis demonstrated that oral treprostinil–assigned participants had a substantially higher mortality risk at baseline but achieved a lower risk profile from Study Weeks 12–60. The most common adverse events in the oral treprostinil group were headache, diarrhea, flushing, nausea, and vomiting. Conclusions: In participants with PAH, addition of oral treprostinil to approved oral monotherapy reduced the risk of clinical worsening. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01560624)

    Development of a Definition of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 Infection

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    IMPORTANCE: SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with persistent, relapsing, or new symptoms or other health effects occurring after acute infection, termed postacute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), also known as long COVID. Characterizing PASC requires analysis of prospectively and uniformly collected data from diverse uninfected and infected individuals. OBJECTIVE: To develop a definition of PASC using self-reported symptoms and describe PASC frequencies across cohorts, vaccination status, and number of infections. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective observational cohort study of adults with and without SARS-CoV-2 infection at 85 enrolling sites (hospitals, health centers, community organizations) located in 33 states plus Washington, DC, and Puerto Rico. Participants who were enrolled in the RECOVER adult cohort before April 10, 2023, completed a symptom survey 6 months or more after acute symptom onset or test date. Selection included population-based, volunteer, and convenience sampling. EXPOSURE: SARS-CoV-2 infection. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: PASC and 44 participant-reported symptoms (with severity thresholds). RESULTS: A total of 9764 participants (89% SARS-CoV-2 infected; 71% female; 16% Hispanic/Latino; 15% non-Hispanic Black; median age, 47 years [IQR, 35-60]) met selection criteria. Adjusted odds ratios were 1.5 or greater (infected vs uninfected participants) for 37 symptoms. Symptoms contributing to PASC score included postexertional malaise, fatigue, brain fog, dizziness, gastrointestinal symptoms, palpitations, changes in sexual desire or capacity, loss of or change in smell or taste, thirst, chronic cough, chest pain, and abnormal movements. Among 2231 participants first infected on or after December 1, 2021, and enrolled within 30 days of infection, 224 (10% [95% CI, 8.8%-11%]) were PASC positive at 6 months. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: A definition of PASC was developed based on symptoms in a prospective cohort study. As a first step to providing a framework for other investigations, iterative refinement that further incorporates other clinical features is needed to support actionable definitions of PASC

    Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Adult Study Protocol: Rationale, Objectives, and Design

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    IMPORTANCE: SARS-CoV-2 infection can result in ongoing, relapsing, or new symptoms or other health effects after the acute phase of infection; termed post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), or long COVID. The characteristics, prevalence, trajectory and mechanisms of PASC are ill-defined. The objectives of the Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Multi-site Observational Study of PASC in Adults (RECOVER-Adult) are to: (1) characterize PASC prevalence; (2) characterize the symptoms, organ dysfunction, natural history, and distinct phenotypes of PASC; (3) identify demographic, social and clinical risk factors for PASC onset and recovery; and (4) define the biological mechanisms underlying PASC pathogenesis. METHODS: RECOVER-Adult is a combined prospective/retrospective cohort currently planned to enroll 14,880 adults aged ≥18 years. Eligible participants either must meet WHO criteria for suspected, probable, or confirmed infection; or must have evidence of no prior infection. Recruitment occurs at 86 sites in 33 U.S. states, Washington, DC and Puerto Rico, via facility- and community-based outreach. Participants complete quarterly questionnaires about symptoms, social determinants, vaccination status, and interim SARS-CoV-2 infections. In addition, participants contribute biospecimens and undergo physical and laboratory examinations at approximately 0, 90 and 180 days from infection or negative test date, and yearly thereafter. Some participants undergo additional testing based on specific criteria or random sampling. Patient representatives provide input on all study processes. The primary study outcome is onset of PASC, measured by signs and symptoms. A paradigm for identifying PASC cases will be defined and updated using supervised and unsupervised learning approaches with cross-validation. Logistic regression and proportional hazards regression will be conducted to investigate associations between risk factors, onset, and resolution of PASC symptoms. DISCUSSION: RECOVER-Adult is the first national, prospective, longitudinal cohort of PASC among US adults. Results of this study are intended to inform public health, spur clinical trials, and expand treatment options

    Biological heterogeneity in idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension identified through unsupervised transcriptomic profiling of whole blood

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    Idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH) is a rare but fatal disease diagnosed by right heart catheterisation and the exclusion of other forms of pulmonary arterial hypertension, producing a heterogeneous population with varied treatment response. Here we show unsupervised machine learning identification of three major patient subgroups that account for 92% of the cohort, each with unique whole blood transcriptomic and clinical feature signatures. These subgroups are associated with poor, moderate, and good prognosis. The poor prognosis subgroup is associated with upregulation of the ALAS2 and downregulation of several immunoglobulin genes, while the good prognosis subgroup is defined by upregulation of the bone morphogenetic protein signalling regulator NOG, and the C/C variant of HLA-DPA1/DPB1 (independently associated with survival). These findings independently validated provide evidence for the existence of 3 major subgroups (endophenotypes) within the IPAH classification, could improve risk stratification and provide molecular insights into the pathogenesis of IPAH

    Biological heterogeneity in idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension identified through unsupervised transcriptomic profiling of whole blood

    Get PDF
    Idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH) is a rare but fatal disease diagnosed by right heart catheterisation and the exclusion of other forms of pulmonary arterial hypertension, producing a heterogeneous population with varied treatment response. Here we show unsupervised machine learning identification of three major patient subgroups that account for 92% of the cohort, each with unique whole blood transcriptomic and clinical feature signatures. These subgroups are associated with poor, moderate, and good prognosis. The poor prognosis subgroup is associated with upregulation of the ALAS2 and downregulation of several immunoglobulin genes, while the good prognosis subgroup is defined by upregulation of the bone morphogenetic protein signalling regulator NOG, and the C/C variant of HLA-DPA1/DPB1 (independently associated with survival). These findings independently validated provide evidence for the existence of 3 major subgroups (endophenotypes) within the IPAH classification, could improve risk stratification and provide molecular insights into the pathogenesis of IPAH
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