Informing decisions on the purchase of equipment used by health services in response to incidents involving hazardous materials

Accidents involving release of chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear substances may prompt the need to decontaminate exposed casualties prior to further medical treatment. Health service workers who carry out decontamination procedures wear protective suits to avoid direct contact with contaminants. We developed an analytical framework based on queueing theory to inform UK Department of Health's decisions on the stock of protective suits that ambulance services and hospitals with emergency departments in England should hold. Our aim was to ensure that such allocation gave an accepted degree of resilience to locally identified hazards. Here we give an overview of our work and describe how we incorporated information in the public domain about local hazards with expert opinion about the patterns of demand for decontamination associated with different types of incident. We also give an account of how we worked with decision makers to inform national guidance on this topic

A tool for routine monitoring and feedback of morbidities following paediatric cardiac surgery

Short-term survival after paediatric cardiac surgery has improved significantly over the past 20 years and increasing attention is being given to measuring and reducing incidence of morbidities following surgery. How to best use routinely collected data to share morbidity information constitutes a challenge for clinical teams interested in analysing their outcomes for quality improvement. We aimed to develop a tool facilitating this process in the context of monitoring morbidities following paediatric cardiac surgery, as part of a prospective multi-centre research study in the United Kingdom. We developed a prototype software tool to analyse and present data about morbidities associated with cardiac surgery in children. We used an iterative process, involving engagement with potential users, tool design and implementation, and feedback collection. Graphical data displays were based on the use of icons and graphs designed in collaboration with clinicians. Our tool enables automatic creation of graphical summaries, displayed as a Microsoft PowerPoint presentation, from a spreadsheet containing patient-level data about specified cardiac surgery morbidities. Data summaries include numbers/percentages of cases with morbidities reported, co-occurrences of different morbidities, and time series of each complication over a time window. Our work was characterised by a very high level of interaction with potential users of the tool, enabling us to promptly account for feedback and suggestions from clinicians and data managers. The United Kingdom centres involved in the project received the tool positively, and several expressed their interest in using it as part of their routine practice

Selection by a panel of clinicians and family representatives of important early morbidities associated with paediatric cardiac surgery suitable for routine monitoring using the nominal group technique and a robust voting process

OBJECTIVE: With survival following paediatric cardiac surgery improving, the attention of quality assurance and improvement initiatives is shifting to long-term outcomes and early surgical morbidities. We wanted to involve family representatives and a range of clinicians in selecting the morbidities to be measured in a major UK study. SETTING: Paediatric cardiac surgery services in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: We convened a panel comprising family representatives, paediatricians from referring centres, and surgeons and other clinicians from surgical centres. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Using the nominal group technique augmented by a robust voting process to identify group preferences, suggestions for candidate morbidities were elicited, discussed, ranked and then shortlisted. The shortlist was passed to a clinical group that provided a view on the feasibility of monitoring each shortlisted morbidity in routine practice. The panel then met again to select a prioritised list of morbidities for further study, with the list finalised by the clinical group and chief investigators. RESULTS: At the first panel meeting, 66 initial suggestions were made, with this reduced to a shortlist of 24 after two rounds of discussion, consolidation and voting. At the second meeting, this shortlist was reduced to 10 candidate morbidities. Two were dropped on grounds of feasibility and replaced by another the panel considered important. The final list of nine morbidities included indicators of organ damage, acute events and feeding problems. Family representatives and clinicians from outside tertiary centres brought some issues to greater prominence than if the panel had consisted solely of tertiary clinicians or study investigators. CONCLUSION: The inclusion of patient and family perspectives in identifying metrics for use in monitoring a specialised clinical service is challenging but feasible and can broaden notions of quality and how to measure it

Interventional treatments and risk factors in patients born with hypoplastic left heart syndrome in England and Wales from 2000 to 2015

Objective: To describe the long-term outcomes, treatment pathways and risk factors for patients diagnosed with hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) in England and Wales. / Methods: The UK’s national audit database captures every procedure undertaken for congenital heart disease and updated life status for resident patients in England and Wales. Patients with HLHS born between 2000 and 2015 were identified using codes from the International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code. / Results There were 976 patients with HLHS. Of these, 9.6% had a prepathway intervention, 89.5% underwent a traditional pathway of staged palliation and 6.4% of infants underwent a hybrid pathway. Patients undergoing prepathway procedures or the hybrid pathway were more complex, exhibiting higher rates of prematurity and acquired comorbidity. Prepathway intervention was associated with the highest in-hospital mortality (34.0%). 44.6% of patients had an off-pathway procedure after their primary procedure, most frequently stenting or dilation of residual or recoarctation and most commonly occurring between stage 1 and stage 2. The survival rate at 1 year and 5 years was 60.7% (95% CI 57.5 to 63.7) and 56.3% (95% CI 53.0 to 59.5), respectively. Patients with an antenatal diagnosis (multivariable HR (MHR) 1.63 (95% CI 1.12 to 2.38)), low weight (<2.5 kg) (MHR 1.49 (95% CI 1.05 to 2.11)) or the presence of an acquired comorbidity (MHR 2.04 (95% CI 1.30 to 3.19)) were less likely to survive. / Conclusion: Treatment pathways among patients with HLHS are complex and variable. It is essential that the long-term outcomes of conditions like HLHS that require serial interventions are studied to provide a fuller picture and to inform quality assurance and improvement

Improving Risk Adjustment for Mortality After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: The UK PRAiS2 Model

BACKGROUND: Partial Risk Adjustment in Surgery (PRAiS), a risk model for 30-day mortality after children's heart surgery, has been used by the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit to report expected risk-adjusted survival since 2013. This study aimed to improve the model by incorporating additional comorbidity and diagnostic information. METHODS: The model development dataset was all procedures performed between 2009 and 2014 in all UK and Ireland congenital cardiac centers. The outcome measure was death within each 30-day surgical episode. Model development followed an iterative process of clinical discussion and development and assessment of models using logistic regression under 25 × 5 cross-validation. Performance was measured using Akaike information criterion, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration. The final model was assessed in an external 2014 to 2015 validation dataset. RESULTS: The development dataset comprised 21,838 30-day surgical episodes, with 539 deaths (mortality, 2.5%). The validation dataset comprised 4,207 episodes, with 97 deaths (mortality, 2.3%). The updated risk model included 15 procedural, 11 diagnostic, and 4 comorbidity groupings, and nonlinear functions of age and weight. Performance under cross-validation was: median AUC of 0.83 (range, 0.82 to 0.83), median calibration slope and intercept of 0.92 (range, 0.64 to 1.25) and -0.23 (range, -1.08 to 0.85) respectively. In the validation dataset, the AUC was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.89), and the calibration slope and intercept were 1.01 (95% CI, 0.83 to 1.18) and 0.11 (95% CI, -0.45 to 0.67), respectively, showing excellent performance. CONCLUSIONS: A more sophisticated PRAiS2 risk model for UK use was developed with additional comorbidity and diagnostic information, alongside age and weight as nonlinear variables

Definition of important early morbidities related to paediatric cardiac surgery

BACKGROUND: Morbidity is defined as a state of being unhealthy or of experiencing an aspect of health that is "generally bad for you", and postoperative morbidity linked to paediatric cardiac surgery encompasses a range of conditions that may impact the patient and are potential targets for quality assurance. METHODS: As part of a wider study, a multi-disciplinary group of professionals aimed to define a list of morbidities linked to paediatric cardiac surgery that was prioritised by a panel reflecting the views of both professionals from a range of disciplines and settings as well as parents and patients. RESULTS: We present a set of definitions of morbidity for use in routine audit after paediatric cardiac surgery. These morbidities are ranked in priority order as acute neurological event, unplanned re-operation, feeding problems, the need for renal support, major adverse cardiac events or never events, extracorporeal life support, necrotising enterocolitis, surgical site of blood stream infection, and prolonged pleural effusion or chylothorax. It is recognised that more than one such morbidity may arise in the same patient and these are referred to as multiple morbidities, except in the case of extracorporeal life support, which is a stand-alone constellation of morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to define a range of paediatric cardiac surgical morbidities for use in routine audit that reflects the priorities of both professionals and parents. The impact of these morbidities on the patient and family will be explored prospectively as part of a wider ongoing, multi-centre study

Measurement of the diffractive structure function in deep inelastic scattering at HERA

This paper presents an analysis of the inclusive properties of diffractive deep inelastic scattering events produced in $ep$ interactions at HERA. The events are characterised by a rapidity gap between the outgoing proton system and the remaining hadronic system. Inclusive distributions are presented and compared with Monte Carlo models for diffractive processes. The data are consistent with models where the pomeron structure function has a hard and a soft contribution. The diffractive structure function is measured as a function of \xpom, the momentum fraction lost by the proton, of $\beta$, the momentum fraction of the struck quark with respect to \xpom, and of $Q^2$. The \xpom dependence is consistent with the form \xpoma where $a~=~1.30~\pm~0.08~(stat)~^{+~0.08}_{-~0.14}~(sys)$ in all bins of $\beta$ and $Q^2$. In the measured $Q^2$ range, the diffractive structure function approximately scales with $Q^2$ at fixed $\beta$. In an Ingelman-Schlein type model, where commonly used pomeron flux factor normalisations are assumed, it is found that the quarks within the pomeron do not saturate the momentum sum rule.Comment: 36 pages, latex, 11 figures appended as uuencoded fil