The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

The performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we assess the impact of this uncertainty when calibrating a flood inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) for a flood event in December 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK. The flood extent is delineated from an ERS-2 SAR image of the event using an active contour model (snake), and water levels at the flood margin calculated through intersection of the shoreline vector with LiDAR topographic data. Gauged water levels are used to create a reference water surface slope for comparison with the satellite-derived water levels. Residuals between the satellite observed data points and those from the reference line are spatially clustered into groups of similar values. We show that model calibration achieved using pattern matching of observed and predicted flood extent is negatively influenced by this spatial dependency in the data. By contrast, model calibration using water elevations produces realistic calibrated optimum friction parameters even when spatial dependency is present. To test the impact of removing spatial dependency a new method of evaluating flood inundation model performance is developed by using multiple random subsamples of the water surface elevation data points. By testing for spatial dependency using Moran’s I, multiple subsamples of water elevations that have no significant spatial dependency are selected. The model is then calibrated against these data and the results averaged. This gives a near identical result to calibration using spatially dependent data, but has the advantage of being a statistically robust assessment of model performance in which we can have more confidence. Moreover, by using the variations found in the subsamples of the observed data it is possible to assess the effects of observational uncertainty on the assessment of flooding risk

Reinforced carbon-carbon oxidation behavior in convective and radiative environments

Reinforced carbon-carbon, which is used as thermal protection on the space shuttle orbiter wing leading edges and nose cap, was tested in both radiant and plasma arcjet heating test facilities. The test series was conducted at varying temperatures and pressures. Samples tested in the plasma arcjet facility had consistently higher mass loss than those samples tested in the radiant facility. A method using the mass loss data is suggested for predicting mission mass loss for specific locations on the Orbiter

Recurrence interval analysis of high-frequency financial returns and its application to risk estimation

We investigate the probability distributions of the recurrence intervals $\tau$ between consecutive 1-min returns above a positive threshold $q>0$ or below a negative threshold $q<0$ of two indices and 20 individual stocks in China's stock market. The distributions of recurrence intervals for positive and negative thresholds are symmetric, and display power-law tails tested by three goodness-of-fit measures including the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic, the weighted KS statistic and the Cram\'er-von Mises criterion. Both long-term and shot-term memory effects are observed in the recurrence intervals for positive and negative thresholds $q$. We further apply the recurrence interval analysis to the risk estimation for the Chinese stock markets based on the probability $W_q(\Delta{t},t)$, Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis and VaR analysis conditioned on preceding recurrence intervals.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, 1 tabl

Excimer lasers

The results of a two-year investigation into the possibility of developing continuous wave excimer lasers are reported. The program included the evaluation and selection of candidate molecular systems and discharge pumping techniques. The K Ar/K2 excimer dimer molecules and the xenon fluoride excimer molecule were selected for study; each used a transverse and capillary discharges pumping technique. Experimental and theoretical studies of each of the two discharge techniques applied to each of the two molecular systems are reported. Discharge stability and fluorine consumption were found to be the principle impediments to extending the XeF excimer laser into the continuous wave regime. Potassium vapor handling problems were the principal difficulty in achieving laser action on the K Ar/K2 system. Of the four molecular systems and pumping techniques explored, the capillary discharge pumped K Ar/K2 system appears to be the most likely candidate for demonstrating continuous wave excimer laser action primarily because of its predicted lower pumping threshold and a demonstrated discharge stability advantage

Discovery of a Binary Centaur

We have identified a binary companion to (42355) 2002 CR46 in our ongoing deep survey using the Hubble Space Telescope's High Resolution Camera. It is the first companion to be found around an object in a non-resonant orbit that crosses the orbits of giant planets. Objects in orbits of this kind, the Centaurs, have experienced repeated strong scattering with one or more giant planets and therefore the survival of binaries in this transient population has been in question. Monte Carlo simulations suggest, however, that binaries in (42355) 2002 CR46 -like heliocentric orbits have a high probability of survival for reasonable estimates of the binary's still-unknown system mass and separation. Because Centaurs are thought to be precursors to short period comets, the question of the existence of binary comets naturally arises; none has yet been definitively identified. The discovery of one binary in a sample of eight observed by HST suggests that binaries in this population may not be uncommon.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures, 1 table accepted for publication in Icaru

An Auger electron spectroscopy study of surface-preparation contaminants

There are many cleaning techniques that are presently being employed for surface preparation of materials that are subsequently exposed to ultrahigh vacuum (UHV). Unfortunately, there are virtually no comparative measurements which establish the residual contaminant level of each method. In this report, eleven different cleaning methods, ranging from only detergent cleaning to electrochemical polishing, were applied to identical samples of 347 stainless steel. Two surface conditions, a standard machined surface and a mechanically polished surface, were studied. Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) within a UHV environment was then used to detect the types of contaminants and the magnitudes found on the sample surfaces. It was found that the electrochemical polishing gave the least contaminated surface of all metals studied and that mechanically polished surfaces were significantly cleaner than the as-machined surfaces for any given cleaning method. Furthermore, it was also found that the residual contaminations left by methanol, ethanol, isopropyl alcohol, acetone, and freon finishing rinses are almost the same