Explainable haemoglobin deferral predictions using machine learning models: interpretation and consequences for the blood supply

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES\nMATERIALS AND METHODS\nRESULTS\nCONCLUSION\nAccurate predictions of haemoglobin (Hb) deferral for whole-blood donors could aid blood banks in reducing deferral rates and increasing efficiency and donor motivation. Complex models are needed to make accurate predictions, but predictions must also be explainable. Before the implementation of a prediction model, its impact on the blood supply should be estimated to avoid shortages.\nDonation visits between October 2017 and December 2021 were selected from Sanquin's database system. The following variables were available for each visit: donor sex, age, donation start time, month, number of donations in the last 24 months, most recent ferritin level, days since last ferritin measurement, Hb at nth previous visit (n between 1 and 5), days since the nth previous visit. Outcome Hb deferral has two classes: deferred and not deferred. Support vector machines were used as prediction models, and SHapley Additive exPlanations values were used to quantify the contribution of each variable to the model predictions. Performance was assessed using precision and recall. The potential impact on blood supply was estimated by predicting deferral at earlier or later donation dates.\nWe present a model that predicts Hb deferral in an explainable way. If used in practice, 64% of non-deferred donors would be invited on or before their original donation date, while 80% of deferred donors would be invited later.\nBy using this model to invite donors, the number of blood bank visits would increase by 15%, while deferral rates would decrease by 60% (currently 3% for women and 1% for men).Algorithms and the Foundations of Software technolog

Reliability of computerized image analysis for the evaluation of serial synovial biopsies in randomized controlled trials in rheumatoid arthritis

Analysis of biomarkers in synovial tissue is increasingly used in the evaluation of new targeted therapies for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). This study determined the intrarater and inter-rater reliability of digital image analysis (DIA) of synovial biopsies from RA patients participating in clinical trials. Arthroscopic synovial biopsies were obtained before and after treatment from 19 RA patients participating in a randomized controlled trial with prednisolone. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect CD3(+ )T cells, CD38(+ )plasma cells and CD68(+ )macrophages. The mean change in positive cells per square millimetre for each marker was determined by different operators and at different times using DIA. Nonparametric tests were used to determine differences between observers and assessments, and to determine changes after treatment. The intraclass correlations (ICCs) were calculated to determine the intrarater and inter-rater reliability. Intrarater ICCs showed good reliability for measuring changes in T lymphocytes (R = 0.87), plasma cells (R = 0.62) and macrophages (R = 0.73). Analysis by Bland–Altman plots showed no systemic differences between measurements. The smallest detectable changes were calculated and their discriminatory power revealed good response in the prednisolone group compared with the placebo group. Similarly, inter-rater ICCs also revealed good reliability for measuring T lymphocytes (R = 0.68), plasma cells (R = 0.69) and macrophages (R = 0.72). All measurements identified the same cell types as changing significantly in the treated patients compared with the placebo group. The measurement of change in total positive cell numbers in synovial tissue can be determined reproducibly for various cell types by DIA in RA clinical trials

TWEAK and its receptor Fn14 in the synovium of patients with rheumatoid arthritis compared to psoriatic arthritis and its response to tumour necrosis factor blockade

Objective: To investigate the expression of tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-like weak inducer of apoptosis (TWEAK) and its receptor fibroblast growth factor inducible 14 (Fn14) in the inflamed synovium of patients with arthritis, as TWEAK blockade has been observed to have a beneficial effect in an animal model of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods: Synovial tissue (ST) biopsies were obtained from 6 early, methotrexate-naive patients with RA as well as 13 patients with RA and 16 patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA) who were matched for treatment and disease duration. Serial ST samples were obtained from a separate cohort of 13 patients with RA before and after infliximab treatment. TWEAK and Fn14 expression was evaluated by immunohistochemistry and digital image analysis. Results: TWEAK and Fn14 were clearly expressed in ST of patients with RA and PsA. TWEAK expression was significantly higher in RA (sub) lining samples compared to PsA (p = 0.005 and p = 0.014, respectively), but Fn14 expression was comparable. Double immunofluorescence showed TWEAK and Fn14 expression on fibroblast-like synoviocytes and macrophages, but not T cells. Of interest, persistent TWEAK and Fn14 expression was found after anti-TNF therapy. Conclusions: TWEAK and Fn14 are abundantly expressed in the inflamed synovium of patients with RA and PsA. This raises the possibility that blocking TWEAK/Fn14 signalling could be of therapeutic benefit in inflammatory arthriti

First results of a ferritin‐based blood donor deferral policy in the Netherlands

Algorithms and the Foundations of Software technolog

The clinical response to infliximab in rheumatoid arthritis is in part dependent on pretreatment tumour necrosis factor α expression in the synovium

Objective: To determine whether the heterogeneous clinical response to tumour necrosis factor (TNF)alpha blocking therapy in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) can be predicted by TNF alpha expression in the synovium before initiation of treatment. Methods: Prior to initiation of infliximab treatment, arthroscopic synovial tissue biopsies were obtained from 143 patients with active RA. At week 16, clinical response was evaluated using the 28-joint Disease Activity Score (DAS28). Immunohistochemistry was used to analyse the cell infiltrate as well as the expression of various cytokines, adhesion molecules and growth factors. Stained sections were evaluated by digital image analysis. Student t tests were used to compare responders (decrease in DAS28 >= 1.2) with non-responders (decrease in DAS28 <1.2) and multivariable regression was used to identify the independent predictors of clinical response. Results: Synovial tissue analysis confirmed our hypothesis that the baseline level of TNF alpha expression is a significant predictor of response to TNF alpha blocking therapy. TNF alpha expression in the intimal lining layer and synovial sublining were significantly higher in responders than in non-responders (p = 0.047 and p = 0.008, respectively). The numbers of macrophages, macrophage subsets and T cells (all able to produce TNF alpha) were also significantly higher in responders than in non-responders. The expression of interleukin (IL)1 beta, IL6, IL18, IL10, E-selectin, intercellular adhesion molecule (ICAM)-1, vascular cell adhesion molecule (VCAM)-1, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) was not associated with response to anti-TNF alpha treatment. Conclusion: The effects of TNF alpha blockade are in part dependent on synovial TNF alpha expression and infiltration by TNF alpha producing inflammatory cells. Clinical response cannot be predicted completely, indicating involvement of other as yet unknown mechanism

Change in CD3 positive T-cell expression in psoriatic arthritis synovium correlates with change in DAS28 and magnetic resonance imaging synovitis scores following initiation of biologic therapy - a single centre, open-label study

With the development of increasing numbers of potential therapeutic agents in inflammatory disease comes the need for effective biomarkers to help screen for drug efficacy and optimal dosing regimens early in the clinical trial process. This need has been recognized by the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology Clinical Trials (OMERACT) group, which has established guidelines for biomarker validation. To seek a candidate synovial biomarker of treatment response in psoriatic arthritis (PsA), we determined whether changes in immunohistochemical markers of synovial inflammation correlate with changes in disease activity scores assessing 28 joints (ΔDAS28) or magnetic resonance imaging synovitis scores (ΔMRI) in patients with PsA treated with a biologic agent. Twenty-five consecutive patients with PsA underwent arthroscopic synovial biopsies and MRI scans of an inflamed knee joint at baseline and 12 weeks after starting treatment with either anakinra (first 10 patients) or etanercept (subsequent 15 patients) in two sequential studies of identical design. DAS28 scores were measured at both time points. Immunohistochemical staining for CD3, CD68 and Factor VIII (FVIII) was performed on synovial samples and scored by digital image analysis (DIA). MRI scans performed at baseline and at 12 weeks were scored for synovitis semi-quantitatively. The ΔDAS28 of the European League Against Rheumatism good response definition (>1.2) was chosen to divide patients into responder and non-responder groups. Differences between groups (Mann Whitney U test) and correlations between ΔDAS28 with change in immunohistochemical and MRI synovitis scores (Spearman's rho test) were calculated. Paired synovial samples and MRI scans were available for 21 patients (8 anakinra, 13 etanercept) and 23 patients (8 anakinra, 15 etanercept) respectively. Change in CD3 (ΔCD3) and CD68 expression in the synovial sublining layer (ΔCD68sl) was significantly greater in the disease responders compared to non-responders following treatment (P = 0.005 and 0.013 respectively). ΔCD3, but not ΔCD68 or ΔFVIII, correlated with both ΔDAS28 (r = 0.49, P = 0.025) and ΔMRI (r = 0.58, P = 0.009). The correlation of ΔCD3 with ΔDAS28 and ΔMRI following biologic treatment in this cohort contributes to the validation of ΔCD3 as a synovial biomarker of disease response in PsA, and supports the further evaluation of ΔCD3 for predictive properties of future clinical outcome

Associations between symptoms, donor characteristics and IgG antibody response in 2082 COVID-19 convalescent plasma donors

Many studies already reported on the association between patient characteristics on the severity of COVID-19 disease outcome, but the relation with SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels is less clear. To investigate this in more detail, we performed a retrospective observational study in which we used the IgG antibody response from 11,118 longitudinal antibody measurements of 2,082 unique COVID convalescent plasma donors. COVID-19 symptoms and donor characteristics were obtained by a questionnaire. Antibody responses were modelled using a linear mixed-effects model. Our study confirms that the SARS-CoV-2 antibody response is associated with patient characteristics like body mass index and age. Antibody decay was faster in male than in female donors (average half-life of 62 versus 72 days). Most interestingly, we also found that three symptoms (headache, anosmia, nasal cold) were associated with lower peak IgG, while six other symptoms (dry cough, fatigue, diarrhoea, fever, dyspnoea, muscle weakness) were associated with higher IgG concentrations.Algorithms and the Foundations of Software technologyPharmacolog

Effects of APETALA2 on embryo, endosperm, and seed coat development determine seed size in Arabidopsis

Arabidopsis APETALA2 (AP2) controls seed mass maternally, with ap2 mutants producing larger seeds than wild type. Here, we show that AP2 influences development of the three major seed compartments: embryo, endosperm, and seed coat. AP2 appears to have a significant effect on endosperm development. ap2 mutant seeds undergo an extended period of rapid endosperm growth early in development relative to wild type. This early expanded growth period in ap2 seeds is associated with delayed endosperm cellularization and overgrowth of the endosperm central vacuole. The subsequent period of moderate endosperm growth is also extended in ap2 seeds largely due to persistent cell divisions at the endosperm periphery. The effect of AP2 on endosperm development is mediated by different mechanisms than parent-of-origin effects on seed size observed in interploidy crosses. Seed coat development is affected; integument cells of ap2 mutants are more elongated than wild type. We conclude that endosperm overgrowth and/or integument cell elongation create a larger postfertilization embryo sac into which the ap2 embryo can grow. Morphological development of the embryo is initially delayed in ap2 compared with wild-type seeds, but ap2 embryos become larger than wild type after the bent-cotyledon stage of development. ap2 embryos are able to fill the enlarged postfertilization embryo sac, because they undergo extended periods of cell proliferation and seed filling. We discuss potential mechanisms by which maternally acting AP2 influences development of the zygotic embryo and endosperm to repress seed size