Econometric methods for business cycle dating

© 2023. This document is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This document is the submitted version of a published work that appeared in final form in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance.Business cycle dating helps in developing economic analysis and is useful for economic agents whether they be policy makers, investors or academics. This paper reviews old and recent research on dating the reference cycle turning points and is intended as a guide to the applied researcher. All these methods provide a statistical alternative to cycle dating committees, although full automatism and researcher’s art could be complements rather than substitutes in some dating scenarios. Our survey divides the dating literature into two groups with different approaches to dating the business cycle from a set of coincident economic indicators: averagethen- date or date-then average. In both cases, the dating techniques can be divided into nonparametric and parametric. The paper shows the theoretical foundations of both types of techniques and describes in detail the algorithms or estimation methods necessary for their implementation. Finally, the paper describes empirical applications of the different methods with data of different frequencies, trying to show how they work in practice and pointing out their advantages and disadvantages. This empirical illustrations include a compilation of the codes in different languages (R, Matlab or Gauss). In our opinion, future research should focus on developing methods that are robust to changes in volatility or large outliers and on exploring the usefulness of big data sources and the classification ability offered by machine learning methods

Manual de árvore hiperbólica.

bitstream/item/17757/1/cnptiadoc98.pd

A new approach for performing contamination control bakeouts in JPL thermal vacuum test chambers

Contamination control requirements for the Wide Field/Planetary Camera II (WF/PC II) are necessarily stringent to protect against post-launch contamination of the sensitive optical surfaces, particularly the cold charge coupled device (CCD) imaging surfaces. Typically, thermal vacuum test chambers have employed a liquid nitrogen (LN2) cold trap to collect outgassed contaminants. This approach has the disadvantage of risking recontamination of the test article from shroud offgassing during post-test warmup of the chamber or from any shroud warming of even a few degrees during the bakeout process. By using an enclave, essentially a chamber within a chamber, configured concentrically and internally within an LN2 shroud, a method was developed, based on a design concept by Taylor, for preventing recontamination of test articles during bakeouts and subsequent post-test warmup of the vacuum chamber. Enclaves for testing WF/PC II components were designed and fabricated, then installed in three of JPL's Environmental Test Lab chambers. The design concepts, operating procedures, and test results of this development are discussed

Magnetic Assisted Navigation in Electrophysiology and Cardiac Resynchronisation: A Review

Magnetic assisted navigation is a new innovation that may prove useful in catheter ablation of cardiac arrhythmias and cardiac resynchronization therapy. The ability to steer extremely floppy catheters and guidewires may allow for these to be positioned safely in previously inaccessible areas of the heart. The integration of other new technology, such as image integration and electroanatomic mapping systems, should advance our abilities further. Although studies have shown the technology to be feasible, with the advantage to the physician of decreased radiation exposure, studies need to be performed to show additional benefit over standard techniques

The Great Recession. Worse than ever?

© 2018. This document is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This document is the submitted version of a published work that appeared in final form in Economía Aplicada.We develop an international comparative assessment of the Great Recession, in terms of the features that characterize the form of the recession phases, namely length, depth and shape. The potential unobserved heterogeneity in the international recession characteristics is modeled by a finite mixture model. Using Bayesian inference via Gibbs sampling, the model classiffies the Great Recession suffered by a large number of countries into dfferent clusters, determining its severity in cross section and time series and dimensions. Our results suggest that the business cycle features of the Great Recession are not dfferent from others in an international perspective. By contrast, we show that the only distinctive feature of the Great Recession wasits unprecedented degree of synchronicity

Uso de regras de associação para enriquecer o suporte do planejamento agrícola municipal: estudo de caso.

As técnicas de mineração de dados são úteis para explorar padrões em grandes banco de dados, subsidiando novos conhecimentos. Essas técnicas tem sido usadas com sucesso em diversas áreas, da comercial a científica. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar um estudo de caso em Taquarituba-SP, onde os dados das propriedades rurais foram coletados e submetidos à regras de associação, uma das tarefa da mineração de dados . A eficiência desta tarefa evidenciará novas informações para os municípios, destacando pontos fortes e fracos e enriquecerá os subsídios para o planejamento rural municipal.SBIAgro 2009

Proposta de método para seleção de indicador de risco de incêndio por região.

Descreve-se um método que, a partir de dados diários de temperatura e umidade relativa do ar, velocidade do vento, temperatura de ponto de orvalho, precipitação, insolação e quantidade de focos de incêndio, determina qual o melhor método a ser usado, entre cinco, para o cálculo de risco de incêndio na região em questão. A partir dos métodos: Fórmula de Monte Alegre (FMA), FMA Modificado (FMA+), Nesterov, Telicyn e Angstron, o sistema seleciona o que melhor prediz o risco de incêndio, além de, quando possível, determinar um fator para melhorar oresultado à região alvo, utilizando análise estatística dos erros. Os resultados do método podem sair em html ou em arquivo csv (comma separated values). This paper describes a method that choose the best method to calculate the fire risk index for region, among: FMA, FMA+, Nesterov, Telicyn and Angstron. The inputs of this system are temperature and moisture from the air, wind velocity, dew point temperature, rainfall, solar radiation and fire focus number. The selection of the best index is made by statistical analysis of errors and by multiply the best equation by additional equation. With the best method, the system try to improve the result adding an equation (adjustment factor) to the method. The results of this system can be html format or csv (comma separated values) file.bitstream/item/56912/1/BP113-lancado.pd

Design and Implementation of Acoustic Source Localization on a Low-Cost IoT Edge Platform

The implementation of algorithms for acoustic source localization on edge platforms for the Internet of Things (IoT) is gaining momentum. Applications based on acoustic monitoring can greatly benefit from efficient implementations of such algorithms, enabling novel services for smart homes and buildings or ambient-assisted living. In this context, this brief proposes extreme low-cost sound source localization system composed of two microphones and the low power microcontroller module ESP32. A Direction-Of-Arrival (DOA) algorithm has been implemented taking into account the specific features of this board, showing excellent performance despite the memory constraints imposed by the platform. We have also adapted off-the-shelf lowcost microphone boards to the input requirements of the ESP32 Analog-to-Digital Converter. The processing has been optimized by leveraging in parallel both cores of the microcontroller to capture and process the audio in real time. Our experiments expose that we can perform real-time localization, with a processing time below 3.3 ms.This work was supported in part by the Spanish Government under Grant TIN2017-82972-R, Grant ESP2015-68245-C4-1-P, and Grant RTI2018-097045-B-C21, and in part by the Valencian Regional Government under Grant PROMETEO/2019/109

Clinical cardiac electrophysiology and heart failure: impact of electrical disorders and their treatment

Ageing of the population, life style and increased survival of patients with cardiovascular diseases has favoured the development of heart failure and made of it a growing epidemiological problem in developed countries. The understanding of the mechanisms of progression of this disease and the recent advances in medical therapy has improved symptoms and prognosis of these patients. However, the degree of disability, the impairment in quality of life and mortality rates of patients with advanced heart failure remain high. Despite appropriate treatment, progressive mechanical and electrical remodeling of the heart may occur, favouring the development of arrhythmias (increasing the risk of sudden death and development of atrial fibrillation) and conduction disturbances that will further complicate the course of this disease and the treatment of these patients. Up to one third of the patients with systolic heart failure, may present signs of intra-ventricular conduction delay manifested by a broad QRS complex on the electrocardiogram, which is considered a surrogate for electrical dyssynchrony. These ventricular conduction disturbances have proven to be associated to more advanced heart disease and a worse prognosis. They usually take the form of left bundle branch block and produce a dyssynchronous contraction that reduces myocardial efficiency, further impairing systolic and diastolic function and worsening mitral regurgitation

Sistema de informação para rastreamento de pescado.

A rastreabilidade de peixes confere segurança para quem compra ou comercializa o pescado. Para que seja possível esta rastreabilidade ser usada pela sociedade, é necessário que exista algum repositório de dados que contenha, por exemplo, todo o histórico do pescado, tais como espécie, procedência, manejo, análise físico-química, biológica e microbiológica da água, características diversas relacionadas à carne e couro, e vários outros dados. Com isto, podem ser conhecidas várias características, incluindo a rastreabilidade, para se decidir sobre compra e venda de pescados de qualidade