Experimentation and manipulation with preregistration

© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This is the accepted manuscript version of the article. The final version is available online from Elsevier at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2021.09.002Preregistration requires scientists to describe the planned research activities before their project begins. Preregistration improves transparency in empirical research and is an institutional response to scientific misconduct. This paper studies the impact of a preregistration requirement in a model in which a sender can generate information for a receiver by running private experiments. The sender can also engage in uninformative manipulation. This paper argues that a preregistration requirement can discourage p-hacking, but also result in even more detrimental faked studies

Endogenous Persuasion with Costly Verification

In this paper, I study a situation in which a sender tries to persuade a receiver with evidence that is generated via public or private experimentation. Under public experimentation, any experimental outcome is revealed, and under private experimentation the sender can hide adverse outcomes. The sender can design the properties of the experiments. The receiver chooses whether to verify at a cost the design of the experiment with which the revealed outcome was generated. I find that communication breaks down under public experimentation if there is no restriction on the experiment's design, and that persuasion is possible under private experimentation

Strategic private experimentation

We consider a model of persuasion in which an agent who tries to persuade a decision maker can sequentially acquire imperfect signals. The agent's information acquisition is unobservable and he has the option to hide unfavorable signals. Nevertheless, if the signal precision is sufficiently high , he can persuade the decision maker by revealing a sufficiently large number of favorable signals. When the number of signals that can be transmitted to the decision maker is limited , persuasion is impossible if the agent's stakes are too high.Collaborative Research Center 88

State of the debate contingent arguments

This paper studies the informative content of controversial scientific arguments depending on the state of the debate. Researchers are assumed to differ in their degree of opportunism. The arguments considered are manipulable, may stem from sequential private experimentation and can be revealed selectively. Arguments of opportunistic researchers tend to be informative if there is a lack of consensus in the debate and uninformative if it is more settled. Arguments of more sincere researchers may be uninformative if there is a lack of consensus in the debate and informative if it is more settled. The effect of institutional incentives on the informativeness of arguments should depend on the state of the debate

Fortified Settlements of the 9th and 10th Centuries ad in Central Europe: structure, function and symbolism

Open access article. © Society for Medieval Archaeology 2012.The structure, function(s)and symbolism of early medieval (9th-10th centuries ad) fortified settlements from central Europe, in particular today's Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia, are examined in this paper. It offers an overview of the current state of research together with new insights based on analysis of the site of Gars-Thunau in Lower Austria. Special emphasis is given to the position of the fortified sites in the landscape, to the elements of the built environment and their spatial organisation, as well as to graves within the fortified area. The region under study was situated on the SE border of the Carolingian (and later the Ottonian) Empire, with some of the discussed sites lying in the territory of the 'Great Moravian Empire' in the 9th and 10th centuries. These sites can therefore provide important comparative data for researchers working in other parts of the Carolingian Empire and neighbouring regions.Alexander von Humboldt FoundationAustrian Science Fun

Identification of SARS-CoV-2-induced pathways reveals drug repurposing strategies.

The global outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) necessitates the rapid development of new therapies against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Here, we present the identification of 200 approved drugs, appropriate for repurposing against COVID-19. We constructed a SARS-CoV-2-induced protein network, based on disease signatures defined by COVID-19 multiomics datasets, and cross-examined these pathways against approved drugs. This analysis identified 200 drugs predicted to target SARS-CoV-2-induced pathways, 40 of which are already in COVID-19 clinical trials, testifying to the validity of the approach. Using artificial neural network analysis, we classified these 200 drugs into nine distinct pathways, within two overarching mechanisms of action (MoAs): viral replication (126) and immune response (74). Two drugs (proguanil and sulfasalazine) implicated in viral replication were shown to inhibit replication in cell assays. This unbiased and validated analysis opens new avenues for the rapid repurposing of approved drugs into clinical trials

Global Governance Behind Closed Doors : The IMF Boardroom, the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility, and the Intersection of Material Power and Norm Change in Global Politics

Up on the 12th floor of its 19th Street Headquarters, the IMF Board sits in active session for an average of 7 hours per week. Although key matters of policy are decided on in the venue, the rules governing Boardroom interactions remain opaque, resting on an uneasy combination of consensual decision-making and weighted voting. Through a detailed analysis of IMF Board discussions surrounding the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility (ESAF), this article sheds light on the mechanics of power in this often overlooked venue of global economic governance. By exploring the key issues of default liability and loan conditionality, I demonstrate that whilst the Boardroom is a more active site of contestation than has hitherto been recognized, material power is a prime determinant of both Executive Directors’ preferences and outcomes reached from discussions. And as the decisions reached form the backbone of the ‘instruction sheet’ used by Fund staff to guide their everyday operational decisions, these outcomes—and the processes through which they were reached—were factors of primary importance in stabilizing the operational norms at the heart of a controversial phase in the contemporary history of IMF concessional lending

Controls on gut phosphatisation : the trilobites from the Weeks Formation Lagerstätte (Cambrian; Utah)

Despite being internal organs, digestive structures are frequently preserved in Cambrian Lagerstätten. However, the reasons for their fossilisation and their biological implications remain to be thoroughly explored. This is particularly true with arthropods--typically the most diverse fossilised organisms in Cambrian ecosystems--where digestive structures represent an as-yet underexploited alternative to appendage morphology for inferences on their biology. Here we describe the phosphatised digestive structures of three trilobite species from the Cambrian Weeks Formation Lagerstätte (Utah). Their exquisite, three-dimensional preservation reveals unique details on trilobite internal anatomy, such as the position of the mouth and the absence of a differentiated crop. In addition, the presence of paired pygidial organs of an unknown function is reported for the first time. This exceptional material enables exploration of the relationships between gut phosphatisation and the biology of organisms. Indeed, soft-tissue preservation is unusual in these fossils as it is restricted to the digestive structures, which indicates that the gut played a central role in its own phosphatisation. We hypothesize that the gut provided a microenvironment where special conditions could develop and harboured a source of phosphorus. The fact that gut phosphatization has almost exclusively been observed in arthropods could be explained by their uncommon ability to store ions (including phosphorous) in their digestive tissues. However, in some specimens from the Weeks Formation, the phosphatisation extends to the entire digestive system, suggesting that trilobites might have had some biological particularities not observed in modern arthropods. We speculate that one of them might have been an increased capacity for ion storage in the gut tissues, related to the moulting of their heavily-mineralised carapace

Preselection and expert advice

"The final authenticated version is available online at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00182-016-0551-9We study the effects of preselection on an expert’s advice about the execution of a project if its execution yields more precise estimates about the expert’s expertise. The in troduction of a preselection stage, in which the decision maker evaluates the project before asking for advice, alters the expert’s perception of the problem. We identify conditions under which preselection occurs in equilibrium. We show that if the expert adjusts his behavior, the option to preselect may reduce the expected utility of the decision maker.Collaborative Research Center 88