Harold Jeffreys's Theory of Probability Revisited

Published exactly seventy years ago, Jeffreys's Theory of Probability (1939) has had a unique impact on the Bayesian community and is now considered to be one of the main classics in Bayesian Statistics as well as the initiator of the objective Bayes school. In particular, its advances on the derivation of noninformative priors as well as on the scaling of Bayes factors have had a lasting impact on the field. However, the book reflects the characteristics of the time, especially in terms of mathematical rigor. In this paper we point out the fundamental aspects of this reference work, especially the thorough coverage of testing problems and the construction of both estimation and testing noninformative priors based on functional divergences. Our major aim here is to help modern readers in navigating in this difficult text and in concentrating on passages that are still relevant today.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:1001.2967], [arXiv:1001.2968], [arXiv:1001.2970], [arXiv:1001.2975], [arXiv:1001.2985], [arXiv:1001.3073]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0909.1008]. Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-STS284 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

IDWG, salt and water – an audit of dialysis staff. British Journal of Renal Medicine.

Our haemodialysis service comprises two teaching hospital-based centres and six satellite units, which merged some years ago. The teaching hospitals were traditionally managed by separate groups of dietitians and dialysis staff. Consequently, there were differences in practice within the service, including the methods used to determine an acceptable interdialytic weight gain (IDWG). High IDWG is regarded as a negative factor due to associated intradialytic hypotension, interdialytic hypertension and cardiovascular disease.1 As such, patients with excessive IDWG are frequently advised to limit their daily fluid intake and may be encouraged to reduce their salt intake because of the association between salt intake and thirst.2 Different members of the multidisciplinary team (MDT) act as advisors in this area. This may lead to confusion and non-compliance if the information is conflicting or provided in a negative manner.3 We undertook an audit throughout the haemodialysis service to standardise the advice given to patients. This article reports the results of a questionnaire used to determine how staff respond to excessive IDWG. It also examined their knowledge of the salt and fluid content of common foods

Spontaneous CP Violation at the Electroweak Scale

Utilizing results on the cosmology of anomalous discrete symmetries we show that models of spontaneous CP violation can in principle avoid the domain wall problem first pointed out by Zel'dovich, Kobzarev and Okun. A small but nonzero $\theta_{QCD}$ explicitly breaks CP and can lift the degeneracy of the two CP conjugate vacua through nonperturbative effects so that the domain walls become unstable, but survive to cosmologically interesting epochs. We explore the viability of spontaneous CP violation in the context of two Higgs models, and find that the invisible axion solution of the strong CP problem cannot be implemented without further extensions of the Higgs sector.Comment: 10 page

Development of European standards for evaluative reporting in forensic science : The gap between intentions and perceptions

Criminal justice authorities of EU countries currently engage in dialogue and action to build a common area of justice and to help increase the mutual trust in judicial systems across Europe. This includes, for example, the strengthening of procedural safeguards for citizens in criminal proceedings by promoting principles such as equality of arms. Improving the smooth functioning of judicial processes is also pursued by works of expert working groups in the field of forensic science, such as the working parties under the auspices of the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes (ENFSI). This network aims to share knowledge, exchange experiences and come to mutual agreements in matters concerning forensic science practice, among them the interpretation of results of forensic examinations. For example, through its Monopoly Programmes (financially supported by the European Commission), ENFSI has funded a series of projects that come under the general theme ‘Strengthening the Evaluation of Forensic Results across Europe’. Although these initiatives reflect a strong commitment to mutual understanding on general principles of forensic interpretation, the development of standards for evaluation and reporting, including roadmaps for implementation within the ENFSI community, are fraught with conceptual and practical hurdles. In particular, experience through consultations with forensic science practitioners shows that there is a considerable gap between the intentions of a harmonised view on principles of forensic interpretation and the way in which works towards such common understanding are perceived in the community. In this paper, we will review and discuss several recurrently raised concerns. We acknowledge practical constraints such as limited resources for training and education, but we shall also argue that addressing topics in forensic interpretation now is of vital importance because forensic science continues to be challenged by proactive participants in the legal process that tend to become more demanding and less forgiving

The Impact of a Graded Maximal Exercise Protocol on Exhaled Volatile Organic Compounds:A Pilot Study

Exhaled volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are of interest due to their minimally invasive sampling procedure. Previous studies have investigated the impact of exercise, with evidence suggesting that breath VOCs reflect exercise-induced metabolic activity. However, these studies have yet to investigate the impact of maximal exercise to exhaustion on breath VOCs, which was the main aim of this study. Two-litre breath samples were collected onto thermal desorption tubes using a portable breath collection unit. Samples were collected pre-exercise, and at 10 and 60 min following a maximal exercise test (VO2MAX). Breath VOCs were analysed by thermal desorption-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry using a non-targeted approach. Data showed a tendency for reduced isoprene in samples at 10 min post-exercise, with a return to baseline by 60 min. However, inter-individual variation meant differences between baseline and 10 min could not be confirmed, although the 10 and 60 min timepoints were different (p = 0.041). In addition, baseline samples showed a tendency for both acetone and isoprene to be reduced in those with higher absolute VO2MAX scores (mL(O2)/min), although with restricted statistical power. Baseline samples could not differentiate between relative VO2MAX scores (mL(O2)/kg/min). In conclusion, these data support that isoprene levels are dynamic in response to exercise.</p

Minimum Decision Cost for Quantum Ensembles

For a given ensemble of $N$ independent and identically prepared particles, we calculate the binary decision costs of different strategies for measurement of polarised spin 1/2 particles. The result proves that, for any given values of the prior probabilities and any number of constituent particles, the cost for a combined measurement is always less than or equal to that for any combination of separate measurements upon sub-ensembles. The Bayes cost, which is that associated with the optimal strategy (i.e., a combined measurement) is obtained in a simple closed form.Comment: 11 pages, uses RevTe

Comparison between Suitable Priors for Additive Bayesian Networks

Additive Bayesian networks are types of graphical models that extend the usual Bayesian generalized linear model to multiple dependent variables through the factorisation of the joint probability distribution of the underlying variables. When fitting an ABN model, the choice of the prior of the parameters is of crucial importance. If an inadequate prior - like a too weakly informative one - is used, data separation and data sparsity lead to issues in the model selection process. In this work a simulation study between two weakly and a strongly informative priors is presented. As weakly informative prior we use a zero mean Gaussian prior with a large variance, currently implemented in the R-package abn. The second prior belongs to the Student's t-distribution, specifically designed for logistic regressions and, finally, the strongly informative prior is again Gaussian with mean equal to true parameter value and a small variance. We compare the impact of these priors on the accuracy of the learned additive Bayesian network in function of different parameters. We create a simulation study to illustrate Lindley's paradox based on the prior choice. We then conclude by highlighting the good performance of the informative Student's t-prior and the limited impact of the Lindley's paradox. Finally, suggestions for further developments are provided.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

Treating and Preventing Influenza in Aged Care Facilities: A Cluster Randomised Controlled Trial

PMCID: PMC3474842This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited