Transmission dynamics of Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease may lead to disease-induced extinction

Most pathogens threatening to cause extinction of a host species are maintained on one or more reservoir hosts, in addition to the species that is threatened by disease. Further, most conventional host–pathogen theory assumes that transmission is related to host density, and therefore a pathogen should become extinct before its sole host. Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease is a recently emerged infectious cancer that has led to massive population declines and grave concerns for the future persistence of this largest surviving marsupial carnivore. Here we report the results of mark–recapture studies at six sites and use these data to estimate epidemiological parameters critical to both accurately assessing the risk of extinction from this disease and effectively managing this disease threat. Three sites were monitored from before or close to the time of disease arrival, and at three others disease was well established when trapping began, in one site for at least 10 years. We found no evidence for sex-specific differences in disease prevalence and little evidence of consistent seasonal variation in the force of infection. At all sites, the disease was maintained at high levels of prevalence (>50% in 2–3-year-old animals), despite causing major population declines. We also provide the first estimates of the basic reproductive rate R0 for this disease. Using a simple age-structured deterministic model, we show that our results are not consistent with transmission being proportional to the density of infected hosts but are consistent with frequency-dependent transmission. This conclusion is further supported by the observation that local disease prevalence in 2–3-year-olds still exceeds 50% at a site where population density has been reduced by up to 90% in the past 12 years. These findings lend considerable weight to concerns that this host-specific pathogen will cause the extinction of the Tasmanian devil. Our study highlights the importance of rapidly implementing monitoring programs to determine how transmission depends on host density and emphasizes the need for ongoing management strategies involving a disease-free “insurance population,” along with ongoing field monitoring programs to confirm whether local population extinction occur

Great Lakes management: Ecological factors

Although attempts to improve the quality of the Great Lakes generally focus on chemical pollution, other factors are important and should be considered Ecological factors, such as invasion of the lakes by foreign species, habitat changes, overfishing, and random variations in organism populations, are especially influential. Lack of appreciation of the significance of ecological factors stems partly from the inappropriate application of the concept of eutrophication to the Great Lakes. Emphasis on ecological factors is not intended to diminish the seriousness of pollution, but rather to point out that more cost-effective management, as well as more realistic expectations of management efforts by the public, should result from an ecosystem management approach in which ecological factors are carefully considered.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/41271/1/267_2005_Article_BF01871353.pd

Adaptive responses to cool climate promotes persistence of a non-native lizard

Successful establishment and range expansion of non-native species often require rapid accommodation of novel environments. Here, we use common-garden experiments to demonstrate parallel adaptive evolutionary response to a cool climate in populations of wall lizards (Podarcis muralis) introduced from southern Europe into England. Low soil temperatures in the introduced range delay hatching, which generates directional selection for a shorter incubation period. Non-native lizards from two separate lineages have responded to this selection by retaining their embryos for longer before oviposition-hence reducing the time needed to complete embryogenesis in the nest-and by an increased developmental rate at low temperatures. This divergence mirrors local adaptation across latitudes and altitudes within widely distributed species and suggests that evolutionary responses to climate can be very rapid. When extrapolated to soil temperatures encountered in nests within the introduced range, embryo retention and faster developmental rate result in one to several weeks earlier emergence compared with the ancestral state. We show that this difference translates into substantial survival benefits for offspring. This should promote short- and long-term persistence of non-native populations, and ultimately enable expansion into areas that would be unattainable with incubation duration representative of the native range

Antimicrobial activity of Manuka honey against antibiotic resistant strains of the cell wall free bacteria ureaplasma parvum and Ureaplasma urealyticum

The susceptibility of the cell-wall free bacterial pathogens Ureaplasma spp. to Manuka honey was examined. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of Manuka honey for four Ureaplasma urealyticum and four Ureaplasma parvum isolates was determined. Sensitivity to honey was also compared to clinical isolates with resistance to tetracycline, macrolide and fluoroquinolone antibiotics. Finally step-wise resistance training was utilised in an attempt to induce increased tolerance to honey. The MIC was dependent on the initial bacterial load with 7.5 % and 18.0 % w/v honey required to inhibit U. urealyticum at 1 and 10 6 colour changing units (CCU), respectively, and 4.8 % and 15.3 % w/v required to inhibit U. parvum at 1 and 10 6 CCU, respectively. MIC values were consistently lower for U. parvum compared with U. urealyticum. Antimicrobial activity was seen against tetracycline resistant, erythromycin resistant and ciprofloxacin resistant isolates at 10 5 CCU. No resistance to honey was observed with fifty consecutive challenges at increasing concentrations of honey. This is the first report of the antimicrobial activity of Manuka honey against a cell-wall free bacterial pathogen. The antimicrobial activity was retained against antibiotic resistant strains and it was not possible to generate resistant mutants

Financial diversification before modern portfolio theory: UK financial advice documents in the late nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century

The paper offers textual evidence from a series of financial advice documents in the late nineteenth century and the early twentieth century of how UK investors perceived of and managed risk. In the world’s largest financial centre of the time, UK investors were familiar with the concept of correlation and financial advisers’ suggestions were consistent with the recommendations of modern portfolio theory in relation to portfolio selection strategies. From the 1870s, there was an increased awareness of the benefits of financial diversification - primarily putting equal amounts into a number of different securities - with much of the emphasis being on geographical rather than sectoral diversification and some discussion of avoiding highly correlated investments. Investors in the past were not so naïve as mainstream financial discussions suggest today

A comprehensive database of quality-rated fossil ages for Sahul’s Quaternary vertebrates

Published: 19 July 2016The study of palaeo-chronologies using fossil data provides evidence for past ecological and evolutionary processes, and is therefore useful for predicting patterns and impacts of future environmental change. However, the robustness of inferences made from fossil ages relies heavily on both the quantity and quality of available data. We compiled Quaternary non-human vertebrate fossil ages from Sahul published up to 2013. This, the FosSahul database, includes 9,302 fossil records from 363 deposits, for a total of 478 species within 215 genera, of which 27 are from extinct and extant megafaunal species (2,559 records). We also provide a rating of reliability of individual absolute age based on the dating protocols and association between the dated materials and the fossil remains. Our proposed rating system identified 2,422 records with high-quality ages (i.e., a reduction of 74%). There are many applications of the database, including disentangling the confounding influences of hypothetical extinction drivers, better spatial distribution estimates of species relative to palaeo-climates, and potentially identifying new areas for fossil discovery.Marta Rodríguez-Rey, y, Salvador Herrando-Pérez, Barry W. Brook, Frédérik Saltré, John Alroy, Nicholas Beeton, Michael I. Bird, Alan Cooper, Richard Gillespie, Zenobia Jacobs, Christopher N. Johnson, Gifford H. Miller, Gavin J. Prideaux, Richard G. Roberts, Chris S.M. Turney and Corey J.A. Bradsha