IEA wind recommended practices for selecting renewable power forecasting solutions : part 3 : evaluation of forecasts and forecast solutions

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1^st Renewable Energy Forecasting Industry Guideline: IEA Wind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions

This poster presents an introduction to the 1st renewable energy forecasting industry guideline, the IEA Wind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions (short IEA-RP) [1]. The purpose of the IEA-RP is to encourage both end-users and forecast service providers to standardize practices and components that are common to all forecasting solutions in order to achieve optimal forecast benefit for user’s applications. The guideline is also intended to serve as a reference on state-of- the-art industry practices for forecast service providers new to the market or those wanting to evolve to a new level of service.Example evaluation tools are also made available under open source licenses for testing and further development of forecast solution evaluation

IEA wind recommended practice for the implementation of renewable forecasting solutions: hands-on examples for the use of the guideline

For any industry, it is important to establish standards and recommended best practices in order to ensure security of supply with a healthy competition structure. The IEAWind Recommended Practice for the Implementation of Renewable Energy Forecasting Solutions (IEA-RP) have been developed by a team of internationally active experts in wind and solar forecasting to fill this gap in the selection and implementation of optimal renewable energy forecasting solutions. The IEA-RP comprises four parts. The first part, Forecast Solution Selection Process, addresses the design of a customised process to select an optimal forecast solution for users specific situations. The second part, Design and Execution of Benchmarks and Trials, addresses the design, execution and analysis of customised forecasting benchmarks and trials. The third part, Forecast Solution Evaluation, describes methods and guidelines for meaningful evaluation of renewable energy forecasts and entire forecast solutions. The fourth part, Meteorological and Power Data Requirements for real-time Forecasting Applications, is a guideline for the selection, deployment and maintenance of meteorological sensors, power measurements and associated data quality control relevant to real-time forecasting. To assist in the practical application of the guideline, we provide three hands-on examples on how to use the guideline to design or improve forecast evaluation (Part 3) and measurement data quality (Part 4) in an efficient and impactful way. In the three use cases we demonstrate (1) evaluation of meteorological parameter forecasts (that could be used as input to a power prediction procedure) at a Danish coastal location, (2) verification of wind power predictions for a substation in the Northwest of Ireland and (3) quality control of meteorological measurements at an offshore location in the North Sea

Recommended Practices for the Implementation of Wind Power Forecasting Solutions: Part 3: Evaluation of Forecasts and Forecast Solutions

This is the third part of a series of three recommended practice documents that deal with the development and operation of forecasting solutions in the power market

Use of Forecast Uncertainties in the Power Sector: State-of-the-Art of Business Practices

The work we present is an investigation on the state-of-the-art use of forecast uncertainties in the business practices of actors in the power systems sector that is part of the “IEA Wind Task 36: Wind Power Forecasting”. The purpose of this task is to get an overview of the current use and application of probabilistic forecasts by actors in the power industry and investigate how they estimate and deal with uncertainties. The authors with expertise in probabilistic forecasting have been gathering information from the industry in order to identify the areas, where progress is needed and where it is difficult to achieve further progress. For this purpose, interview questions were compiled for different branches in the power industry and interviews carried out all around the world in the first six months of 2016. At this stage, we present and discuss results from this first round of interviews and draw preliminary conclusions outlining gaps in current forecasting methodologies and their use in the industry. At the end we provide some recommendations for next steps and further development with the objective to formulate guidelines for the use of uncertainty forecasts in the power market at a later stage

IEA Wind Task 36: The second phase for the Forecasting Task

International audienceWind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Wind Power Forecasting organises international collaboration, among national weather centres, forecast vendors and forecast users. The Task looks back on the first 3 years, and just started the second three-year period. Collaboration is open to IEA Wind member states, 13 countries are already therein.The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets and a benchmark. Secondly, we try to improve the derived power forecasts and deal with forecast vendor related matters to bring the entire industry forward. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions.The main result of the first phase is the IEA Recommended Practice for Selecting Renewable Power Forecasting Solutions. This document in three parts (Forecast solution selection process, Designing and executing forecasting benchmarks and trials and Benchmark metrics) takes its outset from the recurrent problem at forecast user companies of how to choose a forecast vendor. The first report describes how to tackle the general situation, while the second report specifically describes how to set up a forecasting trial so that the result is what the client intended. Many of the pitfalls we have seen over the years, are avoided. Other results include a comprehensive review paper on the use of uncertainty forecasts in the power industry and an information portal related to forecasting.In short, the poster presents the IEA Task 36 on Wind Power Forecasting, opening a forum for international collaboration in this important field for meteorologists, wind power forecasters and end users. For collaboration, please contact the author ([email protected]) and see the website at www.ieawindforecasting.dk