Modelling storm surge conditions under future climate scenarios: A case study of 2005 January storm Gudrun in Pärnu, Estonia

A case study based on the January 2005 storm Gudrun parameters has shown good agreement between observations and results obtained from atmospheric and ocean models. In methodology used by us for simulating „future storm Gudrun“ no increase in the intensity of this particular future storm was found, but instead a slight decrease was noticed. When tropical cyclones get stronger with higher sea surface temperatures then for extratropical cyclones this does not apply. Instead, smaller air temperature differences in the polar front may lead to weaker extratropical cyclone formation. However, for drawing broader conclusions, a number of different storm cases should be simulated

Pseudo global warming experiment of flood inundation in the upper White Volta River, Ghana

Study area: Upper White Volta River Study focus: Hydro-meteorological inundation models were applied to simulate an extreme river flood that occurred in the upper White Volta River in September of 2020. The predicted inundation area was in good agreement with the flood area estimated by Sentinel-1A SAR. In addition, pseudo global warming (PGW) simulations using the SSP5–8.5 (Shared Socio-economic Pathway 5–8.5) scenario according to IPCC AR6 were conducted to evaluate the extreme rainfall and associated inundation area under warmer environmental conditions. New hydrological insights for the region: As a result of simulations, the average future rainfall intensity is likely to increase mainly due to higher relative humidity in the regional atmosphere. Associated with these changes, it is likely that the extent of the ensemble average future expected flooded area in the upper White Volta River could slightly increase by 1.04 times under the PGW conditions, compared with present climate conditions. The result of this study implies that floods in the upper White Volta River have the potential of becoming more severe under the most extreme future global warming scenarios

Field Survey of 2018 Typhoon Jebi in Japan: Lessons for Disaster Risk Management

Typhoon Jebi struck Japan on the 4 September 2018, damaging and inundating many coastal areas along Osaka Bay due to the high winds, a storm surge, and wind driven waves. In order to understand the various damage mechanisms, the authors conducted a field survey two days after the typhoon made landfall, measuring inundation heights and depths at several locations in Hyogo Prefecture. The survey results showed that 0.18⁻1.27 m inundation depths were caused by Typhoon Jebi. As parts of the survey, local residents were interviewed about the flooding, and a questionnaire survey regarding awareness of typhoons and storm surges, and their response to the typhoon was distributed. The authors also mapped the location of some of the containers that were displaced by the storm surge, aiming to provide information to validate future simulation models of container displacement. Finally, some interesting characteristics of the storm surge are summarized, such as possible overtopping at what had initially been thought to be a low risk area (Suzukaze town), and lessons learnt in terms of disaster risk management are discussed