IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER? OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS OF SCIENTIFIC POLICY ANALYSIS FOR AGRICULTURE

Agricultural and Food Policy,

An integrated model platform for the economic assessment of agricultural policies in the European Union

A number of economic models have been applied to analyse the Common Agricultural Policy. The partial equilibrium models CAPRI, ESIM, AGLINK, AGMEMOD and CAPSIM and the general equilibrium models GLOBE and GTAP are currently integrated in a modelling platform for Agro-Economic Policy Analysis in the premises of the Joint Research Centre in Seville in close collaboration with Directorate- General for Agriculture and Rural Development. Each of the models included has a specific focus, enlarging the capacity for complex policy analysis within this platform. This can be done by comparing the results of different models or by linking them, where several methodological options are available. This paper gives some insights on current applications in the field of model integration for agricultural policy analysis.European Commission, Common Agricultural Policy, economic models, quantitative analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Implications of EU Enlargement for Agricultural Markets in the New Member States

The paper presents an analysis of the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy implementation on the agricultural markets of the eight new EU Member States. The study is based on the AGMEMOD (AGricultural MEmber states MODelling) national econometric models. Two scenarios are simulated for each country. The "Baseline" scenario assumes the implementation of the Single Area Payment Scheme until 2008 and the subsequent introduction of the Single Payment Scheme from 2009 onwards. Complementary national direct payments would remain in force until 2013. The second scenario assumes the full decoupling of direct payments from 2007 and the introduction of modulation from 2013 onwards in the 2004 enlargement new Member States (EU-8). The baseline scenario projections suggest that the introduction of direct payments would expand EU-8 aggregate production, mainly of oilseeds, grains, sheepmeat and cheese, while beef and veal production would also increase. Consumption of more expensive beef and veal meat would be substituted by poultry and pigmeat. Full decoupling of direct payments will have only a moderate impact on the balance of supply and use for crop and animal production.commodity markets, CAP reform, new Member States, econometric model, Marketing,

Drivers of the European Bioeconomy in Transition (BioEconomy2030) - an exploratory, model-based assessment

Employing a state-of-the-art multi-region market simulation model and database, the aim of this research is to further build on existing research which has attempted to tackle some of these questions at a global scale (von Lampe et al., 2014), in three ways. Firstly, it complements the broader global view provided by previous initiatives with a detailed one for the European Union, with some focus at the member state level. Secondly, different narratives or story lines are developed which reflect different philosophical outlooks resulting from government policy (as opposed to different assumptions pertaining to macroeconomic growth, technological change and biophysical constraints). As a result, this research sets its gaze more firmly on a more medium term future, rather than ‘blue sky’ research initiatives which examine the inherent uncertainty which is characteristic of long run (2050) and very long run (2100) time horizons (von Lampe et al., 2014). Finally, the scope of bio-based activities goes beyond the standard definitions inherent within national accounts data to encompass sources of biomass supply, bio-fuels and bio-chemicals, whilst also taking account of ‘new’ technologies (i.e. second generation fuels) which, hitherto, are still in their infancy but may be expected to play a key role in shaping the bio-economy in the medium term. The structure of this report is as follows. Section 2 describes the data and model framework employed for this study. Section 3 outlines the experimental implementation of the study (i.e., data aggregation, modelling assumptions, scenario design etc). Section 4 presents the baseline results, whilst section 5 examines the resilience of EU bio-economic sectors by comparing the results of two alternative policy visions with those of the baseline. Additional analysis is also conducted to examine the sensitivity of bio-based sectors to divergent changes in world fossil fuel prices. Chapter 6 provides a summary of the key results and some final conclusions.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Drivers of the European Bioeconomy in Transition (BioEconomy2030): an exploratory, model-based assessment

The bioeconomy comprises sectors that use renewable biological resources to produce food, materials and energy. It is at the centre of several global and EU challenges in the near future such as the creation of growth and jobs, climate change, food security and resource depletion. “Bioeconomy 2030†projects a reference scenario (‘business as usual’) and compares it with two distinct policy narratives (‘Outward-looking’ and ‘Inward-looking’) to understand the drivers of EU’s bioeconomy up to 2030, assess its resilience to fulfil such diverse policy goals and identify potential trade-offs. As a motor of jobs and growth, the results indicate that the importance of the bio-based sectors is expected to dwindle somewhat. The factors underlying this result are mainly structural and related to comparably lower macroeconomic growth rates in the EU. It is, however, conceivable that improved economic development or productivity improvements linked to EU investments in, for instance bio-based innovation, would produce a recognisably more optimistic outlook for the EU bioeconomy.Publishe

Estimating jobs and wealth in the Bioeconomy

- The bioeconomy generates 4.1% of the EU GDP and employs 8.2% of the EU labour force. - Concomitant growth in value added and reduction in number of persons employed resulted in apparent labour productivity gains over the period 2008 - 2015. - Each bioeconomy sector follows its own dynamics, which can also differ from one EU Member State to another. - Looking at dynamic similarities across Member States can help differentiating bioeconomy strategies according to distinct Member State groups for a finer targeting. - Numbers are partly based on estimates, following nova-Institut's methodologyJRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Competitiveness in the Food Industry: a CGE Modelling Approach to assess Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Countries

For transition countries, the food industry sector is a key industry in terms of output and employment shares. As a competitive sector that receives substantial foreign direct investments (FDI), it plays an important role as an element in the process of integration in the European and world market. The GLOBE Computable General Equilibrium model is applied to analyse scenarios of alternative development pathways of the food industry sector, taking into account the impact of FDI in the European food industry. The scenario analyses of this study identify that with an enhanced attraction of FDI in the food processing industries in the New Member States (NMS) the integration of the agri-food sectors in the NMS into the Single European Market will become even stronger.Food industry, foreign direct investment, CGE, transition countries, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade,

Structural Patterns of the Bioeconomy in the EU Member States – a SAM approach

The concept of 'bioeconomy' is gathering momentum in European Union (EU) policy circles as a sustainable model of growth to reconcile the goals of continued wealth generation and employment with bio-based sustainable resource usage. Unfortunately, an economy-wide quantitative assessment covering the full diversity of this sector is, hitherto, constrained by relatively poor data availability for disaggregated bio-based activities. This research takes a first step in addressing this issue by employing social accounting matrices (SAMs) for each EU27 member encompassing a highly disaggregated treatment of traditional bio-based agricultural and food sectors, in addition to identifiable bioeconomic activities from the national accounts data. Employing backward-linkage (BL), forward-linkage (FL) and employment multipliers, the aim is to profile and assess comparative structural patterns both across bioeconomic sectors and EU Member States. The results indicate six clusters of EU member countries with homogeneous bioeconomy structures. Within cluster statistical tests reveal a high tendency toward 'backward orientation' or demand driven wealth generation, whilst inter-cluster statistical comparisons across each bio-based sector show only a moderate degree of heterogeneous BL wealth generation and, with the exception of only two sectors, a uniformly homogeneous degree of FL wealth generation. With the exception of forestry, fishing and wood activities, bio-based employment generation prospects are below non bioeconomy activities. Finally, milk and dairy are established as 'key sectors'.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Structural Patterns of the Bioeconomy in the EU Member States – a SAM approach

JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the EconomyPublishe

Lower and upper bounds for the Rayleigh conductivity of a perforated plate

International audienceLower and upper bounds for the Rayleigh conductivity of a perforation in a thick plate are usually derived from intuitive approximations and by physical reasoning. This paper addresses a mathematical justification of these approaches. As a byproduct of the rigorous handling of these issues, some improvements to previous bounds for axisymmetric holes are given as well as new estimates for inclined perforations. The main techniques are a proper use of the variational principles of Dirichlet and Kelvin in the context of Beppo-Levi spaces. The derivations are validated by numerical experiments in the two-dimensional axisymmetric case and the full three-dimensional one