Structural Change and Forecasting Long-Run Energy Prices

The authors test the statistical significance of Pindyck’s (1999) suggested class of econometric equations that model the behaviour of long-run real energy prices. The models postulate meanreverting prices with continuous and random changes in their level and trend, and are estimated using Kalman filtering. In such contexts, test statistics are typically non-standard and depend on nuisance parameters. The authors use simulation-based procedures to address this issue; namely, a standard Monte Carlo test and a maximized Monte Carlo test. They find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices, but not for crude oil prices. Out-of-sample forecasts are calculated to differentiate between significant models.Econometric and statistical methods

The Deep Structure of Situated Thinking in Professionals

This study explicates Critical Thinking (CT) in the respiratory care profession. An exploratory factor analysis was performed and seven measured CT behaviors were narrowed to two factors. A cluster analysis followed and three groups of practitioners were found. This empirical typology considerably expands the conception of CT in the professions

Development and Validation of an Instrument to Measure Critical Thinking in Respiratory Care

Purpose - to establish the reliability and validity of an instrument to measure critical thinking among respiratory therapists. Questions derived from Mishoe\u27s (1995) study, expert therapists and the literature. Content validity established. Pilot instrument tested with reliability = 0.94 (Cronbach\u27s alpha). Instrument can be used to measure critical thinking in respiratory care

Analysis of biomedical and health queries: Lessons learned from TREC and CLEF evaluation benchmarks

International audienceBACKGROUND:Inherited ichthyoses represent a group of rare skin disorders characterized by scaling, hyperkeratosis and inconstant erythema, involving most of the tegument. Epidemiology remains poorly described. This study aims to evaluate the prevalence of inherited ichthyosis (excluding very mild forms) and its different clinical forms in France.METHODS:Capture - recapture method was used for this study. According to statistical requirements, 3 different lists (reference/competence centres, French association of patients with ichthyosis and internet network) were used to record such patients. The study was conducted in 5 areas during a closed period.RESULTS:The prevalence was estimated at 13.3 per million people (/M) (CI95\%, [10.9 - 17.6]). With regard to autosomal recessive congenital ichthyosis, the prevalence was estimated at 7/M (CI 95\% [5.7 - 9.2]), with a prevalence of lamellar ichthyosis and congenital ichthyosiform erythroderma of 4.5/M (CI 95\% [3.7 - 5.9]) and 1.9/M (CI 95\% [1.6 - 2.6]), respectively. Prevalence of keratinopathic forms was estimated at 1.1/M (CI 95\% [0.9 - 1.5]). Prevalence of syndromic forms (all clinical forms together) was estimated at 1.9/M (CI 95\% [1.6 - 2.6]).CONCLUSIONS:Our results constitute a crucial basis to properly size the necessary health measures that are required to improve patient care and design further clinical studies

Mentoring the New Teacher

The effectiveness of the Teacher Assistance Program was evaluated from the perspective of the first year teacher in the Wenatchee School District, the Cashmere School District and the Cascade School District. New teachers were given a questionnaire, interviewed by the researchers, and asked to complete a survey describing the impact that the mentoring experience had on acclimating them into their profession. Recommendations for improving the continued efficacy of the program include careful selection of the mentor, early matching of the mentees to their mentor, and specific responsibilities clearly outlined for all persons involved