Diagnosing the entropy budget of a climate model

A general circulation model (GCM) of intermediate complexity (Planet Simulator) is subjected to an analysis of the entropy budget and its sensitivity. The entropy production is computed directly based on temperature and temperature tendencies and estimated indirectly based on boundary fluxes. For indirect estimates, the model shows reasonably good agreement with observations. The direct computation indicates deficits of the indirect measures, as they, for example, overestimate the material entropy production (that is, the production by turbulent fluxes). Sensitivity analyses of entropy production are provided, which, depending on changing parameters, hint to a possible applicability of maximum entropy production (MEP) under the constrained dynamics of a complex GC

On non-linear baroclinic adjustment with the stratosphere

The effect of the stratosphere on the baroclinic adjustment of a nonlinear Eady model is presented. The classical linear Eady model has been modified by including an additional layer (the stratosphere), Ekman dissipation at the bottom boundary and a Newtonian cooling at the surface and the tropopause, respectively; non-linearity is introduced by wave-mean flow interaction for a single eddy mode. Results for the rigid-lid case and for small troposphere/stratosphere stratification ratio are compared with those for the linear Eady model with Ekman dissipation at the surface. For these cases model solutions consist of a steady zonal correction and an eddy field with a travelling constant amplitude wave. The equilibrated field, as a function of small stratification ratio, shows that the minimum amplitude of the eddy component raises to a height close to the tropopause (its steering level), denoting that the wave solution becomes vertical evanescent. When realistic values for the static stability in the stratosphere are considered, the zonal correction is no more time independent and reveals a degree of chaotic behaviour, while the eddy field is fully chaotic. Effects of changes in the zonal wind vertical shear and a further decreasing static stability in the stratosphere are also analysed. Results suggest that the minimum amplitude is, in average, higher than the one computed for the classical rigid lid with Ekman dissipation at the surface. Thus, as in the linear Eady model, the stratosphere induces a stabilising effect on the baroclinic dynamics. Finally, the model solutions are compared with the time behaviour of a simplified General Circulation Model

The impact of oceanic heat transport on the atmospheric circulation

A general circulation model of intermediate complexity with an idealized Earth-like aquaplanet setup is used to study the impact of changes in the oceanic heat transport on the global atmospheric circulation. Focus is on the atmospheric mean meridional circulation and global thermodynamic properties. The atmosphere counterbalances to a large extent the imposed changes in the oceanic heat transport, but, nonetheless, significant modifications to the atmospheric general circulation are found. Increasing the strength of the oceanic heat transport up to 2.5 PW leads to an increase in the global mean near-surface temperature and to a decrease in its equator-to-pole gradient. For stronger transports, the gradient is reduced further, but the global mean remains approximately constant. This is linked to a cooling and a reversal of the temperature gradient in the tropics. Additionally, a stronger oceanic heat transport leads to a decline in the intensity and a poleward shift of the maxima of both the Hadley and Ferrel cells. Changes in zonal mean diabatic heating and friction impact the properties of the Hadley cell, while the behavior of the Ferrel cell is mostly controlled by friction. The efficiency of the climate machine, the intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle and the material entropy production of the system decline with increased oceanic heat transport. This suggests that the climate system becomes less efficient and turns into a state of reduced entropy production as the enhanced oceanic transport performs a stronger large-scale mixing between geophysical fluids with different temperatures, thus reducing the available energy in the climate system and bringing it closer to a state of thermal equilibrium

Lagrangian tracer homogenization and dispersion in a simplified atmospheric GCM

Lagrangian transport in the atmosphere is numerically studied by using a simplified general circulation model (SGCM) with Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction. Long-term Lagrangian behaviour is analyzed by determining hemispheric and global homogenization times and by studying the time evolution of tracer distributions. At short times, the properties of absolute dispersion are considered. The tracer dynamics reveals the presence of transport barriers associated with slow inter-hemispheric and troposphere-stratosphere exchanges, and with a slow crossing of the boundary between the Ferrel and Hadley cells

Stable equatorial ice belts at high obliquity in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model

Various climate states at high obliquity are realized for a range of stellar irradiance using a dynamical atmosphere-ocean-sea ice climate model in an Aquaplanet configuration. Three stable climate states are obtained that differ in the extent of the sea ice cover. For low values of irradiance the model simulates a Cryoplanet that has a perennial global sea ice cover. By increasing stellar irradiance, transitions occur to an Uncapped Cryoplanet with a perennial equatorial sea ice belt, and eventually to an Aquaplanet with no ice. Using an emulator model we find that the Uncapped Cryoplanet is a robust stable state for a range of irradiance and high obliquities and contrast earlier results that high-obliquity climate states with an equatorial ice belt may be unsustainable or unachievable. When the meridional ocean heat flux is strengthened, the parameter range permitting a stable Uncapped Cryoplanet decreases due to melting of equatorial sea ice. Beyond a critical threshold of meridional ocean heat flux, the perennial equatorial ice belt disappears. Therefore, a vigorous ocean circulation may render it unstable. Our results suggest that perennial equatorial ice cover is a viable climate state of a high-obliquity exoplanet. However, due to multiple equilibria, this state is only reached from more glaciated conditions, and not from less glaciated conditions.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, ApJ accepte

Atmospheric bias teleconnections in boreal winter associated with systematic sea surface temperature errors in the tropical Indian Ocean

Coupled climate models suffer from significant sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), leading to errors in global climate predictions. In this study, we investigate the local and remote effects of the TIO SST bias on the simulated atmospheric circulation and spatio-temporal variability – bias teleconnections. A set of century-long simulations forced by idealized SST perturbations, which resemble various (monopolar or dipolar, positive or negative) TIO SST biases in coupled climate models, are conducted with an intermediate-complexity atmospheric model. Bias teleconnections with a focus on boreal wintertime are analysed using the normal-mode function (NMF) decomposition, which can differentiate between balanced and unbalanced flows across spatial scales. The results show that the atmospheric circulation biases caused by the TIO SST bias have the Gill–Matsuno-type pattern in the tropics and Rossby-wave-train structure in the extratropics, similar to the steady-state response to tropical heating perturbations. The teleconnections between the tropical and extratropical biases are set up by Rossby wave activity flux emanating from the subtropics. Over 90 % of the bias variance (i.e. the square of the bias amplitude) is contained in zonal wavenumbers k≤5. The northward shift of the SST bias away from the Equator weakens the amplitude but does not change the spatial structure of the atmospheric response. Besides, the positive SST bias produces stronger bias teleconnections than the negative one of the same size and magnitude. In the NMF framework, the change in the spatial variance of the time-mean state (i.e. energy) is equal to the sum of the bias variance and the covariance between the circulation bias and the reference state (i.e. bias covariance). Due to the TIO SST biases, the global unbalanced zonal-mean (k=0) flow energy decreases, whereas its balanced counterpart increases. These changes primarily arise from the strong bias covariance. For k&gt;0, both the global unbalanced and the tropical balanced energies increase in the case of a monopolar SST bias and decrease in the case of a dipolar SST bias. The increase appears mainly as the bias variance, whereas the decrease is associated with a strong negative bias covariance at k=1 and 2. In contrast, the extratropical balanced wave energy decreases (increases) when the TIO SST bias is positive (negative), which is mainly associated with the bias covariance at k=1. The change in the interannual variance (IAV) is contingent upon the sign of the TIO SST bias. A positive bias reduces, whereas a negative one increases, the IAV in both balanced and unbalanced flows. Geographically, large IAV changes are observed in the tropical Indo-West Pacific region, Australia, South and Northeast Asia, the Pacific-North America region, and Europe, where the background IAVs are strong.</p

PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment

Many applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires interactive two-way coupling, but this is generally computationally infeasible with even moderately complex general circulation models (GCMs). Dimension reduction using emulation is one solution to this problem, demonstrated here with the GCM PLASIM-ENTS (Planet Simulator coupled with the efficient numerical terrestrial scheme). Our approach generates temporally evolving spatial patterns of climate variables, considering multiple modes of variability in order to capture non-linear feedbacks. The emulator provides a 188-member ensemble of decadally and spatially resolved (~ 5◦ resolution) seasonal climate data in response to an arbitrary future CO2 concentration and non-CO2 radiative forcing scenario. We present the PLASIM-ENTS coupled model, the construction of its emulator from an ensemble of transient future simulations, an application of the emulator methodology to produce heating and cooling degree-day projections, the validation of the simulator (with respect to empirical data) and the validation of the emulator (with respect to high-complexity models). We also demonstrate the application to estimates of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty