Forecasting Human African Trypanosomiasis Prevalences from Population Screening Data Using Continuous Time Models

To eliminate and eradicate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), maximizing the effectiveness of active case finding is of key importance. The progression of the epidemic is largely influenced by the planning of these operations. This paper introduces and analyzes five models for predicting HAT prevalence in a given village based on past observed prevalence levels and past screening activities in that village. Based on the quality of prevalence level predictions in 143 villages in Kwamouth (DRC), and based on the theoretical foundation underlying the models, we consider variants of the Logistic Model—a model inspired by the SIS epidemic model—to be most suitable for predicting HAT prevalence levels. Furthe

Should I Get Screened for Sleeping Sickness? A Qualitative Study in Kasai Province, Democratic Republic of Congo

Active screening strategies are common disease control interventions in the context of poor and remote rural communities with no direct access to healthcare facilities. For such activities to be as effective as possible, it is necessary that they are well adapted to local socio-economic and cultural settings. Our aim was to gain insight into the barriers communities in the Kasai-Oriental province of the Democratic Republic of Congo experience in relation to their participation in active screening activities for African sleeping sickness. Participation rates seem to be especially low in this province compared to other endemic regions in the country. We found several important factors to be in play, a number of which could be addressed by adapting the operational procedures of the mobile teams that perform the active screening activities (e.g., improved confidentiality during the screening procedure). However, more profound considerations were found in the form of regional beliefs related to the treatment of the disease. Although not based on rational grounds, these prohibitions seem to pose a significant barrier in a person's decision to seek diagnosis and treatment. A better understanding of these prohibitions and their origin could lead to improved participation rates for sleeping sickness screening in Kasai-Oriental