Predicting Fall Risks Vulnerability with Inpatient Data in Acute Care Hospitalization

The increasing trend of patients’ falls-related impairments in acute care hospitalization and the consequent implications for quality care and cost of care have made it prudent to develop techniques for rapid estimation of fall risks on admission. We develop a framework that relies on Extra Tree Classifier (ETC) with class balanced features to model fall risks on admission using risk scores and removing redundant clinical and psychosocial characteristics via multicollinearity and significance testing. The model predicts fall risks on admission to an accuracy of 96.76% and has a higher accuracy of 3.63%-39.32% when compared to Logistics Regression (LR), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), decision tree classifier(DTC), Quadratic Discriminant Analysis(QDA), K Nearest Neighbour(KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Ridge model (RCV) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Due to the effectiveness of this model, it is expected that the multifactorial considerations will culminate in cost-effective management and better patient experience

A new era of social policy integration? Looking at the case of health, social care and housing

Service integration is a global trend aiming to create partnerships, cost-effectiveness and joined-up working across public and third sector services to support an ageing population. However, social policy research suggests that the policy making process behind integration and implementation is complex, contradictory and full of tension. This paper explores social policy integration at the ground-level of services in the health and housing sector within a new integrated model for housing for older people. The paper applies a critical Lipskian approach to show the housing can promote integration for both users and wider stakeholders. Front-line workers were central to service integration, often working to integration principles despite policy changes and uncertainty. Challenges of social policy integration include the gaps between policy and practice and the developing nature of interaction at the ground-level – most notable the role of technology. Technology and digital health platforms could enhance service user and practitioner interactions at the ground-level. The paper calls for renewed focus on policy processes in relation to service integration and consideration of new forms of service user, practitioner and policy maker interaction.Output Status: Forthcoming/Available Onlin

Talking Technology Enabled Care - A personalised, visual digital platform to transform health, social care and housing services

The aim of the Talking Technology Enabled Care project was to conduct a feasibility study to co-design, implement, evaluate and deliver a novel, visual, digital care management application for those who find communicating their health needs challenging. The project has been funded by Innovate UK. Effective communication is at the heart of holistic healthcare. Enabling people to talk about their needs and concerns is the first step in providing care that addresses these concerns, supports recovery and self-management. Technology is a potential enabler of communication between individuals and those in their informal or professional care network. Technological solutions can enhance communication among professionals who are encouraged to work together across traditional boundaries to provide holistic healthcare that addresses individuals’ health, social care and housing needs. However, for individuals with communication difficulties expressing their needs is especially challenging and the inability to collect and share information electronically inhibits interagency working. Harnessing –and developing –existing technology that enables talk between individuals with communication difficulties, carers and service professionals can address communication barriers and enhance integrated care delivery between the health, social care and housing sectors

Health Care Charges Associated With Physical Inactivity, Overweight, and Obesity

INTRODUCTION: Physical inactivity, overweight, and obesity are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to estimate the proportion of total health care charges associated with physical inactivity, overweight, and obesity among U.S. populations aged 40 years and older. METHODS: A predictive model of health care charges was developed using data from a cohort of 8000 health plan members aged 40 and older. Model cells were defined by physical activity status, body mass index, age, sex, smoking status, and selected chronic diseases. Total health care charges were estimated by multiplying the percentage of the population in each cell by the predicted charges per cell. Counterfactual estimates were computed by reclassifying all individuals as physically active and of normal weight while leaving other characteristics unchanged. Charges associated with physical inactivity, overweight, and obesity were computed as the difference between current risk profile total charges and counterfactual total charges. National population percentage estimates were derived from the National Health Interview Survey; those estimates were multiplied by the predicted charges per cell from the health plan analysis. RESULTS: Physical inactivity, overweight, and obesity were associated with 23% (95% confidence interval [CI], 10%–34%) of health plan health care charges and 27% (95% CI, 10%–37%) of national health care charges. Although charges associated with these risk factors were highest for the oldest group (aged 65 years and older) and for individuals with chronic conditions, nearly half of aggregate charges were generated from the group aged 40 to 64 years without chronic disease. CONCLUSION: Charges associated with physical inactivity, overweight, and obesity constitute a significant portion of total medical expenditures. The results underscore the importance of addressing these risk factors in all segments of the population

Clinical and cost effectiveness of endoscopic bipolar radiofrequency ablation for the treatment of malignant biliary obstruction: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Early evidence suggests that using radiofrequency ablation as an adjunct to standard care (i.e. endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography with stenting) may improve outcomes in patients with malignant biliary obstruction. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and potential risks of endoscopic bipolar radiofrequency ablation for malignant biliary obstruction, and the value of future research. DATA SOURCES: Seven bibliographic databases, three websites and seven trials registers were searched from 2008 until 21 January 2021. REVIEW METHODS: The study inclusion criteria were as follows: patients with biliary obstruction caused by any form of unresectable malignancy; the intervention was reported as an endoscopic biliary radiofrequency ablation to ablate malignant tissue that obstructs the bile or pancreatic ducts, either to fit a stent (primary radiofrequency ablation) or to clear an obstructed stent (secondary radiofrequency ablation); the primary outcomes were survival, quality of life or procedure-related adverse events; and the study design was a controlled study, an observational study or a case report. Risk of bias was assessed using Cochrane tools. The primary analysis was meta-analysis of the hazard ratio of mortality. Subgroup analyses were planned according to the type of probe, the type of stent (i.e. metal or plastic) and cancer type. A de novo Markov model was developed to model cost and quality-of-life outcomes associated with radiofrequency ablation in patients with primary advanced bile duct cancer. Insufficient data were available for pancreatic cancer and secondary bile duct cancer. An NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was adopted for the analysis. A probabilistic analysis was conducted to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for radiofrequency ablation and the probability that radiofrequency ablation was cost-effective at different thresholds. The population expected value of perfect information was estimated in total and for the effectiveness parameters. RESULTS: Sixty-eight studies (1742 patients) were included in the systematic review. Four studies (336 participants) were combined in a meta-analysis, which showed that the pooled hazard ratio for mortality following primary radiofrequency ablation compared with a stent-only control was 0.34 (95% confidence interval 0.21 to 0.55). Little evidence relating to the impact on quality of life was found. There was no evidence to suggest an increased risk of cholangitis or pancreatitis, but radiofrequency ablation may be associated with an increase in cholecystitis. The results of the cost-effectiveness analysis were that the costs of radiofrequency ablation was £2659 and radiofrequency ablation produced 0.18 quality-adjusted life-years, which was more than no radiofrequency ablation on average. With an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £14,392 per quality-adjusted life-year, radiofrequency ablation was likely to be cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year across most scenario analyses, with moderate uncertainty. The source of the vast majority of decision uncertainty lay in the effect of radiofrequency ablation on stent patency. LIMITATIONS: Only 6 of 18 comparative studies contributed to the survival meta-analysis, and few data were found concerning secondary radiofrequency ablation. The economic model and cost-effectiveness meta-analysis required simplification because of data limitations. Inconsistencies in standard reporting and study design were noted. CONCLUSIONS: Primary radiofrequency ablation increases survival and is likely to be cost-effective. The evidence for the impact of secondary radiofrequency ablation on survival and of quality of life is limited. There was a lack of robust clinical effectiveness data and, therefore, more information is needed for this indication. FUTURE WORK:  Future work investigating radiofrequency ablation must collect quality-of-life data. Highquality randomised controlled trials in secondary radiofrequency ablation are needed, with appropriate outcomes recorded. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020170233. FUNDING:  This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 27, No. 7. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

Effect of Environmental Tobacco Smoke on Levels of Urinary Hormone Markers

Our recent study showed a dose–response relationship between environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and the risk of early pregnancy loss. Smoking is known to affect female reproductive hormones. We explored whether ETS affects reproductive hormone profiles as characterized by urinary pregnanediol-3-glucuronide (PdG) and estrone conjugate (E(1)C) levels. We prospectively studied 371 healthy newly married nonsmoking women in China who intended to conceive and had stopped contraception. Daily records of vaginal bleeding, active and passive cigarette smoking, and daily first-morning urine specimens were collected for up to 1 year or until a clinical pregnancy was achieved. We determined the day of ovulation for each menstrual cycle. The effects of ETS exposure on daily urinary PdG and E(1)C levels in a ±10 day window around the day of ovulation were analyzed for conception and nonconception cycles, respectively. Our analysis included 344 nonconception cycles and 329 conception cycles. In nonconception cycles, cycles with ETS exposure had significantly lower urinary E(1)C levels (β= –0.43, SE = 0.08, p < 0.001 in log scale) compared with the cycles without ETS exposure. There was no significant difference in urinary PdG levels in cycles having ETS exposure (β= –0.07, SE = 0.15, p = 0.637 in log scale) compared with no ETS exposure. Among conception cycles, there were no significant differences in E(1)C and PdG levels between ETS exposure and nonexposure. In conclusion, ETS exposure was associated with significantly lower urinary E(1)C levels among nonconception cycles, suggesting that the adverse reproductive effect of ETS may act partly through its antiestrogen effects

Quality indicators for Palliative Day Services: A modified Delphi study

BACKGROUND: The goal of Palliative Day Services is to provide holistic care that contributes to the quality of life of people with life threatening-illness and their families. Quality indicators provide a means by which to describe, monitor and evaluate the quality of Palliative Day Services provision, and act as a starting point for quality improvement. However, currently, there are no published quality indicators for Palliative Day Services. AIM: To develop and provide the first set of quality indicators that describe and evaluate the quality of Palliative Day Services. DESIGN AND SETTING: A modified Delphi technique was used to combine best available research evidence derived from a systematic scoping review with multi-disciplinary expert appraisal of the appropriateness and feasibility of candidate indicators. The resulting indicators were compiled into ‘toolkit’, and tested in five UK Palliative Day Service settings. RESULTS: A panel of experts independently reviewed evidence summaries for 182 candidate indicators and provided ratings on appropriateness, followed by a panel discussion and further independent ratings of appropriateness, feasibility, and necessity. This exercise resulted in the identification of 30 indicators which were used in practice testing. The final indicator set comprised 7 structural indicators, 21 process indicators, and 2 outcome indicators. CONCLUSIONS: The indicators fulfil a previously unmet need among Palliative Day Service providers by delivering an appropriate and feasible means to assess, review, and communicate the quality of care, and to identify areas for quality improvement

Loss of gastrokine-2 drives premalignant gastric inflammation and tumor progression

Chronic mucosal inflammation is associated with a greater risk of gastric cancer (GC) and, therefore, requires tight control by suppressive counter mechanisms. Gastrokine-2 (GKN2) belongs to a family of secreted proteins expressed within normal gastric mucosal cells. GKN2 expression is frequently lost during GC progression, suggesting an inhibitory role; however, a causal link remains unsubstantiated. Here, we developed Gkn2 knockout and transgenic overexpressing mice to investigate the functional impact of GKN2 loss in GC pathogenesis. In mouse models of GC, decreased GKN2 expression correlated with gastric pathology that paralleled human GC progression. At baseline, Gkn2 knockout mice exhibited defective gastric epithelial differentiation but not malignant progression. Conversely, Gkn2 knockout in the IL-11/STAT3-dependent gp130[superscript F/F] GC model caused tumorigenesis of the proximal stomach. Additionally, gastric immunopathology was accelerated in Helicobacter pylori–infected Gkn2 knockout mice and was associated with augmented T helper cell type 1 (Th1) but not Th17 immunity. Heightened Th1 responses in Gkn2 knockout mice were linked to deregulated mucosal innate immunity and impaired myeloid-derived suppressor cell activation. Finally, transgenic overexpression of human gastrokines (GKNs) attenuated gastric tumor growth in gp130[superscript F/F] mice. Together, these results reveal an antiinflammatory role for GKN2, provide in vivo evidence that links GKN2 loss to GC pathogenesis, and suggest GKN restoration as a strategy to restrain GC progression