The Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Statistically Corrected Operative Risk Evaluation (AAA SCORE) for predicting mortality after open and endovascular interventions

BackgroundAccurate adjustment of surgical outcome data for risk is vital in an era of surgeon-level reporting. Current risk prediction models for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair are suboptimal. We aimed to develop a reliable risk model for in-hospital mortality after intervention for AAA, using rigorous contemporary statistical techniques to handle missing data.MethodsUsing data collected during a 15-month period in the United Kingdom National Vascular Database, we applied multiple imputation methodology together with stepwise model selection to generate preoperative and perioperative models of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair, using two thirds of the available data. Model performance was then assessed on the remaining third of the data by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and compared with existing risk prediction models. Model calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis.ResultsA total of 8088 AAA repair operations were recorded in the National Vascular Database during the study period, of which 5870 (72.6%) were elective procedures. Both preoperative and perioperative models showed excellent discrimination, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .89 and .92, respectively. This was significantly better than any of the existing models (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for best comparator model, .84 and .88; P < .001 and P = .001, respectively). Discrimination remained excellent when only elective procedures were considered. There was no evidence of miscalibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis.ConclusionsWe have developed accurate models to assess risk of in-hospital mortality after AAA repair. These models were carefully developed with rigorous statistical methodology and significantly outperform existing methods for both elective cases and overall AAA mortality. These models will be invaluable for both preoperative patient counseling and accurate risk adjustment of published outcome data

The first endovascular repair of an acute type A dissection using an endograft designed for the ascending aorta

Endovascular repair has emerged as a potential alternative to emergency open surgical repair for type A dissection in selected patients, with isolated reports describing the results obtained with a range of devices designed originally for the descending aorta. We believe that we present the first reported repair of an acute ascending aortic dissection using an endovascular stent graft manufactured specifically for the ascending aorta

Prevalence of true vein graft aneurysms: Implications for aneurysm pathogenesis

AbstractBackground: Circumstantial evidence suggests that arterial aneurysms have a different cause than atherosclerosis and may form part of a generalized dilating diathesis. The aim of this study was to compare the rates of spontaneous aneurysm formation in vein grafts performed either for popliteal aneurysms or for occlusive disease. The hypothesis was that if arterial aneurysms form a part of a systemic process, then the rates of vein graft aneurysms should be higher for patients with popliteal aneurysms than for patients with lower limb ischemia caused by atherosclerosis. Methods: Infrainguinal vein grafting procedures performed from 1990 to 1995 were entered into a prospective audit and graft surveillance program. Aneurysmal change was defined as a focal increase in the graft diameter of 1.5 cm or greater, excluding false aneurysms and dilatations after graft angioplasty. Results: During the study period, 221 grafting procedures were performed in 200 patients with occlusive disease and 24 grafting procedures were performed in 21 patients with popliteal aneurysms. Graft surveillance revealed spontaneous aneurysm formation in 10 of the 24 bypass grafts (42%) for popliteal aneurysms but in only 4 of the 221 grafting procedures (2%) that were performed for chronic lower limb ischemia. Conclusion:This study provides further evidence that aneurysmal disease is a systemic process, and this finding has clinical implications for the treatment of popliteal aneurysms. (J Vasc Surg 1999;29:403-8.

Improving 1-Year Outcomes of Infrainguinal Limb Revascularization: Population-Based Cohort Study of 104 000 Patients in England.

BACKGROUND: The availability and diversity of lower limb revascularization procedures have increased in England in the past decade. We investigated whether these developments in care have translated to improvements in patient pathways and outcomes. METHODS: Individual-patient records from Hospital Episode Statistics were used to identify 103 934 patients who underwent endovascular (angioplasty) or surgical (endarterectomy, profundaplasty, or bypass) lower limb revascularization for infrainguinal peripheral artery disease in England between January 2006 and December 2015. Major lower limb amputations and deaths within 1 year after revascularization were ascertained from Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics mortality records. Competing risks regression was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of major amputation and death, adjusted for patient age, sex, comorbidity score, indication for the intervention (intermittent claudication, severe limb ischemia without record of tissue loss, severe limb ischemia with a record of ulceration, severe limb ischemia with a record of gangrene/osteomyelitis), and comorbid diabetes mellitus. RESULTS: The estimated 1-year risk of major amputation decreased from 5.7% (in 2006-2007) to 3.9% (in 2014-2015) following endovascular revascularization, and from 11.2% (2006-2007) to 6.6% (2014-2015) following surgical procedures. The risk of death after both types of revascularization also decreased. These trends were observed for all indication categories, with the largest reductions found in patients with severe limb ischemia with ulceration or gangrene. Overall, morbidity increased over the study period, and a larger proportion of patients was treated for the severe end of the peripheral artery disease spectrum using less invasive procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that from 2006 to 2015, the overall survival increased and the risk of major lower limb amputation decreased following revascularization. These observations suggest that patient outcomes after lower limb revascularization have improved during a period of centralization and specialization of vascular services in the United Kingdom

Alcohol-induced retrograde facilitation renders witnesses of crime less suggestible to misinformation

RATIONALE: Research has shown that alcohol can have both detrimental and facilitating effects on memory: intoxication can lead to poor memory for information encoded after alcohol consumption (anterograde amnesia) and may improve memory for information encoded before consumption (retrograde facilitation). This study examined whether alcohol consumed after witnessing a crime can render individuals less vulnerable to misleading post-event information (misinformation). METHOD: Participants watched a simulated crime video. Thereafter, one third of participants expected and received alcohol (alcohol group), one third did not expect but received alcohol (reverse placebo), and one third did not expect nor receive alcohol (control). After alcohol consumption, participants were exposed to misinformation embedded in a written narrative about the crime. The following day, participants completed a cued-recall questionnaire about the event. RESULTS: Control participants were more likely to report misinformation compared to the alcohol and reverse placebo group. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that we may oversimplify the effect alcohol has on suggestibility and that sometimes alcohol can have beneficial effects on eyewitness memory by protecting against misleading post-event information

Association of neighbourhood deprivation with risks of major amputation and death following lower limb revascularisation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Individual-level socioeconomic deprivation is associated with an increased risk of adverse patient outcomes following cardiovascular disease interventions, but the role of area-level socioeconomic circumstances as a predictor for treatment outcomes is unclear. We have examined the association of neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation with risks of major lower limb amputation and death following surgical and endovascular lower limb revascularisation due to peripheral artery disease (PAD). METHODS: Patients aged 50+ years who underwent surgical or endovascular lower limb revascularisation for PAD were identified from Hospital Episode Statistics, a nationwide hospital data warehouse in England. Major amputations and deaths within a year of revascularisation were ascertained from HES and national mortality register, respectively. Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) was used to measure neighbourhood deprivation. Flexible parametric competing risks models were used to estimate sub-distribution hazard ratios (SHRs) for amputation and death. RESULTS: In all, 65,806 patients underwent endovascular and 20,072 underwent surgical revascularisation. The covariate-adjusted 1-year risk of major amputation was higher among patients from the most deprived compared to least deprived neighbourhoods following endovascular revascularisation (SHR: 1.24, 95% confidence interval, CI:1.10 to 1.38) and surgical revascularisation (SHR:1.28, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.51). The risk of death was higher in most deprived compared to the least deprived neighbourhoods following both procedures. CONCLUSIONS: We found a consistent association between neighbourhood deprivation and amputation and death outcomes following lower limb revascularisation for PAD. These findings suggest there may be opportunities for targeted interventions to improve care of PAD patients in deprived neighbourhoods

Profiling Supercooled Liquid Water Clouds with Multi-Frequency Radar

An optimal estimation scheme is employed to demonstrate the utility of using multi-band radar observations for estimating supercooled liquid profiles. Qualitative comparisons with microphysical probe images show that the retrievals are capable of producing supercooled liquid consistent with in situ data. Finally, a path forward for quantifying performance and extending the study to a more robust measurement suite is given

Active and Passive Radiative Transfer Modeling of the Olympic Mountains Experiment

Sensor forward models are an important tool for interpreting remote sensing observations of geophysical phenomena. By implementing a three-dimensional framework, we can simulate and analyze observations from various sensors on disparate platforms. To demonstrate our model framework, we simulate observations from the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX). The use of cloud model simulations allows us to understand sensor response to cloud ice, falling snow, and other processes and features, and the application of model tools to observations allows us to quantify precipitation.MIIST 3D Forward ModelThe Multi-Instrument Inverse Solver Testbed(MIIST) uses the Atmospheric Radiative TransferSimulator (ARTS) for solving the vector radiativetransfer (RT) equation in up to three spatialdimensions within a spherical geometry Gas absorptiono Line-by-line calculationso Fast transmittance tables Hydrometeor scattering solverso Discrete ordinateo RT4 (Evans, 1D)o Radar Single Scattering (1D or 3D)o Monte Carlo (3D)Scattering TablesHigh-fidelity hydrometeor scatteringtables are necessary for accurateand consistent forward modeling ofmulti-frequency observations Requires full Stokes matriceso And absorption vector Randomly oriented particleso Discrete Dipole Approximationo Characteristic Basis Function Method(coming soon) Horizontally-oriented plateso Invariant Imbedding T-matrix MethodCloud Resolving SimulationsCloud resolving simulations (e.g.,NU-WRF) supply output consistentwith ARTS needs Atmospheric Informationo Temperatureo Pressure / heighto Water vapor Hydrometeor Profileso ARTS architecture ripe for explicit binmicrophysics Examples use Morrison 2M schemeThe Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX)Validation for GPM of mid-latitudefrontal systems approaching nearcoastalmountains from the ocean Large collection of ground-based andairborne sensorso Radarso Radiometerso In situ Contemporaneous with RADEXo Two sets of radar at same frequenciesRadiometer Simulation (3 km NUWRF, 20151203, 15:00)2018.12.14 7Simulate 166 GHz polarizationdifference Corresponds to the presence of aligned icecrystals Look at trends for both simulations andobservations Simulations can tolerate lower resolutiono Larger domainSimulations from Observations: OLYMPEXSimulate sensor response usinggeophysical retrievals as input Single frequency radar retrievals Multiple scattering enhancementapparent at W band Spatially dependent phenomenonModeling Application: 1D Retrievals03 December 2015 DC-8 and ER-2 flightso Focus on APR-3 (DC-8) Citationo Stacked microphysics legso Qualitative comparisonso Range of frozen habitso Presence of supercooledliquid cloudsResults Retrievals match probeso Good qualitative match Bands of increasedreflectivity correspond tolarge Dm and highaggregate fraction Significant amounts ofsupercooled liquid wate

A risk-adjusted and anatomically stratified cohort comparison study of open surgery, endovascular techniques and medical management for juxtarenal aortic aneurysms-the UK COMPlex AneurySm Study (UK-COMPASS): a study protocol.

Funder: Health Technology Assessment Programme; Grant(s): Award ID: 15/153/02INTRODUCTION: In one-third of all abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs), the aneurysm neck is short (juxtarenal) or shows other adverse anatomical features rendering operations more complex, hazardous and expensive. Surgical options include open surgical repair and endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) techniques including fenestrated EVAR, EVAR with adjuncts (chimneys/endoanchors) and off-label standard EVAR. The aim of the UK COMPlex AneurySm Study (UK-COMPASS) is to answer the research question identified by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment (NIHR HTA) Programme: 'What is the clinical and cost-effectiveness of strategies for the management of juxtarenal AAA, including fenestrated endovascular repair?' METHODS AND ANALYSIS: UK-COMPASS is a cohort study comparing clinical and cost-effectiveness of different strategies used to manage complex AAAs with stratification of physiological fitness and anatomical complexity, with statistical correction for baseline risk and indication biases. There are two data streams. First, a stream of routinely collected data from Hospital Episode Statistics and National Vascular Registry (NVR). Preoperative CT scans of all patients who underwent elective AAA repair in England between 1 November 2017 and 31 October 2019 are subjected to Corelab analysis to accurately identify and include every complex aneurysm treated. Second, a site-reported data stream regarding quality of life and treatment costs from prospectively recruited patients across England. Site recruitment also includes patients with complex aneurysms larger than 55 mm diameter in whom an operation is deferred (medical management). The primary outcome measure is perioperative all-cause mortality. Follow-up will be to a median of 5 years. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has received full regulatory approvals from a Research Ethics Committee, the Confidentiality Advisory Group and the Health Research Authority. Data sharing agreements are in place with National Health Service Digital and the NVR. Dissemination will be via NIHR HTA reporting, peer-reviewed journals and conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN85731188