Controlling for individual heterogeneity in longitudinal models, with applications to student achievement

Longitudinal data tracking repeated measurements on individuals are highly valued for research because they offer controls for unmeasured individual heterogeneity that might otherwise bias results. Random effects or mixed models approaches, which treat individual heterogeneity as part of the model error term and use generalized least squares to estimate model parameters, are often criticized because correlation between unobserved individual effects and other model variables can lead to biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. Starting with an examination of the relationship between random effects and fixed effects estimators in the standard unobserved effects model, this article demonstrates through analysis and simulation that the mixed model approach has a ``bias compression'' property under a general model for individual heterogeneity that can mitigate bias due to uncontrolled differences among individuals. The general model is motivated by the complexities of longitudinal student achievement measures, but the results have broad applicability to longitudinal modeling.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-EJS057 in the Electronic Journal of Statistics (http://www.i-journals.org/ejs/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future

Recent research has suggested that relatively cold UK winters are more common when solar activity is low (Lockwood et al 2010 Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024001). Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29) and records of past solar variations inferred from cosmogenic isotopes (Abreu et al 2008 Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L20109) and geomagnetic activity data (Lockwood et al 2009 Astrophys. J. 700 937–44) suggest that the current grand solar maximum is coming to an end and hence that solar activity can be expected to continue to decline. Combining cosmogenic isotope data with the long record of temperatures measured in central England, we estimate how solar change could influence the probability in the future of further UK winters that are cold, relative to the hemispheric mean temperature, if all other factors remain constant. Global warming is taken into account only through the detrending using mean hemispheric temperatures. We show that some predictive skill may be obtained by including the solar effect

Missing data in value-added modeling of teacher effects

The increasing availability of longitudinal student achievement data has heightened interest among researchers, educators and policy makers in using these data to evaluate educational inputs, as well as for school and possibly teacher accountability. Researchers have developed elaborate "value-added models" of these longitudinal data to estimate the effects of educational inputs (e.g., teachers or schools) on student achievement while using prior achievement to adjust for nonrandom assignment of students to schools and classes. A challenge to such modeling efforts is the extensive numbers of students with incomplete records and the tendency for those students to be lower achieving. These conditions create the potential for results to be sensitive to violations of the assumption that data are missing at random, which is commonly used when estimating model parameters. The current study extends recent value-added modeling approaches for longitudinal student achievement data Lockwood et al. [J. Educ. Behav. Statist. 32 (2007) 125--150] to allow data to be missing not at random via random effects selection and pattern mixture models, and applies those methods to data from a large urban school district to estimate effects of elementary school mathematics teachers. We find that allowing the data to be missing not at random has little impact on estimated teacher effects. The robustness of estimated teacher effects to the missing data assumptions appears to result from both the relatively small impact of model specification on estimated student effects compared with the large variability in teacher effects and the downweighting of scores from students with incomplete data.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS405 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Compton telescope with coded aperture mask: Imaging with the INTEGRAL/IBIS Compton mode

Compton telescopes provide a good sensitivity over a wide field of view in the difficult energy range running from a few hundred keV to several MeV. Their angular resolution is, however, poor and strongly energy dependent. We present a novel experimental design associating a coded mask and a Compton detection unit to overcome these pitfalls. It maintains the Compton performance while improving the angular resolution by at least an order of magnitude in the field of view subtended by the mask. This improvement is obtained only at the expense of the efficiency that is reduced by a factor of two. In addition, the background corrections benefit from the coded mask technique, i.e. a simultaneous measurement of the source and background. This design is implemented and tested using the IBIS telescope on board the INTEGRAL satellite to construct images with a 12' resolution over a 29 degrees x 29 degrees field of view in the energy range from 200 keV to a few MeV. The details of the analysis method and the resulting telescope performance, particularly in terms of sensitivity, are presented

Affective iconic words benefit from additional sound–meaning integration in the left amygdala

Recent studies have shown that a similarity between sound and meaning of a word (i.e., iconicity) can help more readily access the meaning of that word, but the neural mechanisms underlying this beneficial role of iconicity in semantic processing remain largely unknown. In an fMRI study, we focused on the affective domain and examined whether affective iconic words (e.g., high arousal in both sound and meaning) activate additional brain regions that integrate emotional information from different domains (i.e., sound and meaning). In line with our hypothesis, affective iconic words, compared to their non‐iconic counterparts, elicited additional BOLD responses in the left amygdala known for its role in multimodal representation of emotions. Functional connectivity analyses revealed that the observed amygdalar activity was modulated by an interaction of iconic condition and activations in two hubs representative for processing sound (left superior temporal gyrus) and meaning (left inferior frontal gyrus) of words. These results provide a neural explanation for the facilitative role of iconicity in language processing and indicate that language users are sensitive to the interaction between sound and meaning aspect of words, suggesting the existence of iconicity as a general property of human language

Detection of Water Vapor in the Thermal Spectrum of the Non-Transiting Hot Jupiter upsilon Andromedae b

The upsilon Andromedae system was the first multi-planet system discovered orbiting a main sequence star. We describe the detection of water vapor in the atmosphere of the innermost non-transiting gas giant ups~And~b by treating the star-planet system as a spectroscopic binary with high-resolution, ground-based spectroscopy. We resolve the signal of the planet's motion and break the mass-inclination degeneracy for this non-transiting planet via deep combined flux observations of the star and the planet. In total, seven epochs of Keck NIRSPEC $L$ band observations, three epochs of Keck NIRSPEC short wavelength $K$ band observations, and three epochs of Keck NIRSPEC long wavelength $K$ band observations of the ups~And~system were obtained. We perform a multi-epoch cross correlation of the full data set with an atmospheric model. We measure the radial projection of the Keplerian velocity ($K_P$ = 55 $\pm$ 9 km/s), true mass ($M_b$ = 1.7 $^{+0.33}_{-0.24}$ $M_J$), and orbital inclination \big($i_b$ = 24 $\pm$ 4$^{\circ}$\big), and determine that the planet's opacity structure is dominated by water vapor at the probed wavelengths. Dynamical simulations of the planets in the ups~And~system with these orbital elements for ups~And~b show that stable, long-term (100 Myr) orbital configurations exist. These measurements will inform future studies of the stability and evolution of the ups~And~system, as well as the atmospheric structure and composition of the hot Jupiter.Comment: Accepted to A

Ground- and Space-based Detection of the Thermal Emission Spectrum of the Transiting Hot Jupiter KELT-2Ab

We describe the detection of water vapor in the atmosphere of the transiting hot Jupiter KELT-2Ab by treating the star-planet system as a spectroscopic binary with high-resolution, ground-based spectroscopy. We resolve the signal of the planet's motion with deep combined flux observations of the star and the planet. In total, six epochs of Keck NIRSPEC $L$-band observations were obtained, and the full data set was subjected to a cross correlation analysis with a grid of self-consistent atmospheric models. We measure a radial projection of the Keplerian velocity, $K_P$, of 148 $\pm$ 7 km s$^{-1}$, consistent with transit measurements, and detect water vapor at 3.8$\sigma$. We combine NIRSPEC $L$-band data with $Spitzer$ IRAC secondary eclipse data to further probe the metallicity and carbon-to-oxygen ratio of KELT-2Ab's atmosphere. While the NIRSPEC analysis provides few extra constraints on the $Spitzer$ data, it does provide roughly the same constraints on metallicity and carbon-to-oxygen ratio. This bodes well for future investigations of the atmospheres of non-transiting hot Jupiters.Comment: accepted to A

Evidence for the Direct Detection of the Thermal Spectrum of the Non-Transiting Hot Gas Giant HD 88133 b

We target the thermal emission spectrum of the non-transiting gas giant HD 88133 b with high-resolution near-infrared spectroscopy, by treating the planet and its host star as a spectroscopic binary. For sufficiently deep summed flux observations of the star and planet across multiple epochs, it is possible to resolve the signal of the hot gas giant's atmosphere compared to the brighter stellar spectrum, at a level consistent with the aggregate shot noise of the full data set. To do this, we first perform a principal component analysis to remove the contribution of the Earth's atmosphere to the observed spectra. Then, we use a cross-correlation analysis to tease out the spectra of the host star and HD 88133 b to determine its orbit and identify key sources of atmospheric opacity. In total, six epochs of Keck NIRSPEC L band observations and three epochs of Keck NIRSPEC K band observations of the HD 88133 system were obtained. Based on an analysis of the maximum likelihood curves calculated from the multi-epoch cross correlation of the full data set with two atmospheric models, we report the direct detection of the emission spectrum of the non-transiting exoplanet HD 88133 b and measure a radial projection of the Keplerian orbital velocity of 40 $\pm$ 15 km/s, a true mass of 1.02$^{+0.61}_{-0.28}M_J$, a nearly face-on orbital inclination of 15${^{+6}_{-5}}^{\circ}$, and an atmosphere opacity structure at high dispersion dominated by water vapor. This, combined with eleven years of radial velocity measurements of the system, provides the most up-to-date ephemeris for HD 88133.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures; accepted for publication in Ap