A Sectoral Analysis of the Average Work Week in Euro Area Countries

In this paper, using the recently developed EU-KLEMS database, we estimate an empirical model of the average work week for a sample of euro area countries.

Explaining government revenue windfalls and shortfalls: an analysis for selected EU countries

In recent years, government revenues in many EU countries experienced significant and erratic changes, which, a priori, could not be fully explained by macroeconomic developments or by discretionary fiscal policy measures. We investigate this issue by estimating “unexplained” changes in tax and social contribution revenues, based on proxies for tax revenue bases and elasticities commonly used for forecasting or cyclically adjusting government revenues and taking into account estimates of the impact of legislation changes. This is done for a selection of EU countries, including the “big five” euro area countries (Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands) together with Ireland, Latvia and Portugal. We also undertake the same exercise using alternative tax base proxies, either taken from forecasting models or on the basis of our knowledge of the tax system in each country. The results show that, in the aggregate, revenue windfalls and shortfalls have exhibited a broadly cyclical pattern, driven mainly by developments in profit-related taxes and, to a somewhat lesser extent, VAT. Other, more structural factors also play a role, such as declining consumption of fuel and tobacco, as well as factors specific to individual countries, such as developments in property markets. The estimated revenue windfalls and shortfalls can explain a substantial proportion of changes in the euro area cyclically adjusted budget balance over the period 1999-2007. Since these unexplained revenue changes have exhibited a largely cyclical character and might therefore be viewed as partly temporary, this highlights the importance of a careful interpretation of fiscal indicators adjusted for the economic cycle. Except in a small number of cases, the results do not change significantly when alternative tax base proxies are used, suggesting that the potential for improving existing indicators by a better matching of taxes to their bases is likely to be limited. JEL Classification: H20, H68, E62cyclical adjustment, Fiscal forecasting, tax revenues

Low-Cost Precursors to Novel Hydrogen Storage Materials

From 2005 to 2010, The Dow Chemical Company (formerly Rohm and Haas Company) was a member of the Department of Energy Center of Excellence on Chemical Hydrogen Storage, which conducted research to identify and develop chemical hydrogen storage materials having the potential to achieve DOE performance targets established for on-board vehicular application. In collaboration with Center co-leads Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and other Center partners, Dow's efforts were directed towards defining and evaluating novel chemistries for producing chemical hydrides and processes for spent fuel regeneration. In Phase 1 of this project, emphasis was placed on sodium borohydride (NaBH{sub 4}), long considered a strong candidate for hydrogen storage because of its high hydrogen storage capacity, well characterized hydrogen release chemistry, safety, and functionality. Various chemical pathways for regenerating NaBH{sub 4} from spent sodium borate solution were investigated, with the objective of meeting the 2010/2015 DOE targets of $2-3/gal gasoline equivalent at the pump ($2-3/kg H{sub 2}) for on-board hydrogen storage systems and an overall 60% energy efficiency. With the September 2007 No-Go decision for NaBH{sub 4} as an on-board hydrogen storage medium, focus was shifted to ammonia borane (AB) for on-board hydrogen storage and delivery. However, NaBH{sub 4} is a key building block to most boron-based fuels, and the ability to produce NaBH{sub 4} in an energy-efficient, cost-effective, and environmentally sound manner is critical to the viability of AB, as well as many leading materials under consideration by the Metal Hydride Center of Excellence. Therefore, in Phase 2, research continued towards identifying and developing a single low-cost NaBH4 synthetic route for cost-efficient AB first fill, and conducting baseline cost estimates for first fill and regenerated AB using a variety of synthetic routes. This project utilized an engineering-guided R&D approach, which involved the rapid down-selection of a large number of options (chemical pathways to NaBH{sub 4}) to a smaller, more manageable number. The research began by conducting an extensive review of the technical and patent literature to identify all possible options. The down-selection was based on evaluation of the options against a set of metrics, and to a large extent occurred before experimentation was initiated. Given the vast amount of literature and patents that has evolved over the years, this approach helped to focus efforts and resources on the options with the highest technical and commercial probability of success. Additionally, a detailed engineering analysis methodology was developed for conducting the cost and energy-efficiency calculations. The methodology utilized a number of inputs and tools (Aspen PEA{trademark}, FCHTool, and H2A). The down-selection of chemical pathways to NaBH{sub 4} identified three options that were subsequently pursued experimentally. Metal reduction of borate was investigated in Dow's laboratories, research on electrochemical routes to NaBH{sub 4} was conducted at Pennsylvania State University, and Idaho National Laboratory researchers examined various carbothermal routes for producing NaBH{sub 4} from borate. The electrochemical and carbothermal studies did not yield sufficiently positive results. However, NaBH{sub 4} was produced in high yields and purities by an aluminum-based metal reduction pathway. Solid-solid reactive milling, slurry milling, and solution-phase approaches to metal reduction were investigated, and while both reactive milling and solution-phase routes point to fully recyclable processes, the scale-up of reactive milling processes to produce NaBH{sub 4} is expected to be difficult. Alternatively, a low-cost solution-phase approach to NaBH{sub 4} has been identified that is based on conventional process unit operations and should be amenable to scale-up. Numerous advances in AB synthesis have been made in recent years to improve AB yields and purities. Process analysis of several leading routes to AB (Purdue's formate-based metathesis route and PNNL's NH{sub 4}BH{sub 4}-based route) indicated the cost to produce first-fill AB to be on the order of $9-10/kg AB, assuming a NaBH{sub 4} cost of$5/kg for a 10,000 metric tons/year sized AB plant. The analysis showed that the dominant cost component for producing first-fill AB is the cost of the NaBH4 raw material. At this AB cost and assuming 2.5 moles hydrogen released per mole of AB, it may be possible to meet DOE's 2010 storage system cost target, but the 2015 target will likely require lower cost AB and demonstrates the importance of having a low-cost route to NaBH{sub 4}. Substantial progress has also been made to define feasible pathways for the regeneration of spent ammonia borane fuel

Pan-Cancer Analysis of lncRNA Regulation Supports Their Targeting of Cancer Genes in Each Tumor Context

Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are commonly dys-regulated in tumors, but only a handful are known toplay pathophysiological roles in cancer. We inferredlncRNAs that dysregulate cancer pathways, onco-genes, and tumor suppressors (cancer genes) bymodeling their effects on the activity of transcriptionfactors, RNA-binding proteins, and microRNAs in5,185 TCGA tumors and 1,019 ENCODE assays.Our predictions included hundreds of candidateonco- and tumor-suppressor lncRNAs (cancerlncRNAs) whose somatic alterations account for thedysregulation of dozens of cancer genes and path-ways in each of 14 tumor contexts. To demonstrateproof of concept, we showed that perturbations tar-geting OIP5-AS1 (an inferred tumor suppressor) andTUG1 and WT1-AS (inferred onco-lncRNAs) dysre-gulated cancer genes and altered proliferation ofbreast and gynecologic cancer cells. Our analysis in-dicates that, although most lncRNAs are dysregu-lated in a tumor-specific manner, some, includingOIP5-AS1, TUG1, NEAT1, MEG3, and TSIX, synergis-tically dysregulate cancer pathways in multiple tumorcontexts

Pan-cancer Alterations of the MYC Oncogene and Its Proximal Network across the Cancer Genome Atlas

Although theMYConcogene has been implicated incancer, a systematic assessment of alterations ofMYC, related transcription factors, and co-regulatoryproteins, forming the proximal MYC network (PMN),across human cancers is lacking. Using computa-tional approaches, we define genomic and proteo-mic features associated with MYC and the PMNacross the 33 cancers of The Cancer Genome Atlas.Pan-cancer, 28% of all samples had at least one ofthe MYC paralogs amplified. In contrast, the MYCantagonists MGA and MNT were the most frequentlymutated or deleted members, proposing a roleas tumor suppressors.MYCalterations were mutu-ally exclusive withPIK3CA,PTEN,APC,orBRAFalterations, suggesting that MYC is a distinct onco-genic driver. Expression analysis revealed MYC-associated pathways in tumor subtypes, such asimmune response and growth factor signaling; chro-matin, translation, and DNA replication/repair wereconserved pan-cancer. This analysis reveals insightsinto MYC biology and is a reference for biomarkersand therapeutics for cancers with alterations ofMYC or the PMN

Genomic, Pathway Network, and Immunologic Features Distinguishing Squamous Carcinomas

This integrated, multiplatform PanCancer Atlas study co-mapped and identified distinguishing molecular features of squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) from five sites associated with smokin

Spatial Organization and Molecular Correlation of Tumor-Infiltrating Lymphocytes Using Deep Learning on Pathology Images

Beyond sample curation and basic pathologic characterization, the digitized H&E-stained images of TCGA samples remain underutilized. To highlight this resource, we present mappings of tumorinfiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) based on H&E images from 13 TCGA tumor types. These TIL maps are derived through computational staining using a convolutional neural network trained to classify patches of images. Affinity propagation revealed local spatial structure in TIL patterns and correlation with overall survival. TIL map structural patterns were grouped using standard histopathological parameters. These patterns are enriched in particular T cell subpopulations derived from molecular measures. TIL densities and spatial structure were differentially enriched among tumor types, immune subtypes, and tumor molecular subtypes, implying that spatial infiltrate state could reflect particular tumor cell aberration states. Obtaining spatial lymphocytic patterns linked to the rich genomic characterization of TCGA samples demonstrates one use for the TCGA image archives with insights into the tumor-immune microenvironment

Integrated Genomic Analysis of the Ubiquitin Pathway across Cancer Types

Protein ubiquitination is a dynamic and reversibleprocess of adding single ubiquitin molecules orvarious ubiquitin chains to target proteins. Here,using multidimensional omic data of 9,125 tumorsamples across 33 cancer types from The CancerGenome Atlas, we perform comprehensive molecu-lar characterization of 929 ubiquitin-related genesand 95 deubiquitinase genes. Among them, we sys-tematically identify top somatic driver candidates,including mutatedFBXW7with cancer-type-specificpatterns and amplifiedMDM2showing a mutuallyexclusive pattern withBRAFmutations. Ubiquitinpathway genes tend to be upregulated in cancermediated by diverse mechanisms. By integratingpan-cancer multiomic data, we identify a group oftumor samples that exhibit worse prognosis. Thesesamples are consistently associated with the upre-gulation of cell-cycle and DNA repair pathways, char-acterized by mutatedTP53,MYC/TERTamplifica-tion, andAPC/PTENdeletion. Our analysishighlights the importance of the ubiquitin pathwayin cancer development and lays a foundation fordeveloping relevant therapeutic strategies

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019