Critical Elections in Historical Perspective

For a generation, the theory of critical elections has been a guiding research program for the study of American political history. As fashioned by such distinguished scholars as V. O. Key, Jr., Angus Campbell, Walter Dean Burnham, and Paul Allen Beck, critical election theory posits that American democracy follows an episodic pattern of change and stability. According to the prevailing wisdom, one or more critical elections periodically reorganize coalitions of voters, create new balances of party power, and introduce policy initiatives that respond to unmet needs. Realignments, in this view, are not historical accidents, but processes built into the dynamics of party identification and governmental structure in the United States. Through a quantitative analysis of presidential election returns and party registration statistics (both measured for counties), this paper will challenge the application of critical election theory to the realignments of the 1890s and the 1930s. The results of analysis show that in neither case did shifts in the electorate follow the pattern predicted by realignment theory. It also reveals significant differences in each of the two periods that question the application of a single theory to historical distinct episodes of political change. The paper also presents a situational logic to account for the capacity of incumbent parties to sustain their power over extended periods of time

Here are five ways Trump a Democratic US House might try to impeach Donald Trump

It looks increasingly likely that the Democratic Party will retake the US House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections. If there is such a takeover, the temptation for House Democrats to launch impeachment proceedings against President Trump may be too difficult to ignore. Allan J. Lichtman outlines five potential grounds for impeachment: violations of the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution; conspiracy with Russia; obstruction of justice; violating campaign finance laws; and financial crimes arising from his 1990s tax schemes

Long-term, multiwavelength light curves of ultra-cool dwarfs: II. The evolving light curves of the T2. 5 SIMP 0136 & the uncorrelated light curves of the M9 TVLM 513

We present multiwavelength, multi-telescope, ground-based follow-up photometry of the white dwarf WD 1145+017, that has recently been suggested to be orbited by up to six or more, short-period, low- mass, disintegrating planetesimals. We detect 9 significant dips in flux of between 10% and 30% of the stellar flux from our ground-based photometry. We observe transits deeper than 10% on average every ∼3.6 hr in our photometry. This suggests that WD 1145+017 is indeed being orbited by multiple, short-period objects. Through fits to the multiple asymmetric transits that we observe, we confirm that the transit egress timescale is usually longer than the ingress timescale, and that the transit duration is longer than expected for a solid body at these short periods, all suggesting that these objects have cometary tails streaming behind them. The precise orbital periods of the planetesimals in this system are unclear from the transit-times, but at least one object, and likely more, have orbital periods of ∼4.5 hours. We are otherwise unable to confirm the specific periods that have been reported, bringing into question the long-term stability of these periods. Our high precision photometry also displays low amplitude variations suggesting that dusty material is consistently passing in front of the white dwarf, either from discarded material from these disintegrating planetesimals or from the detected dusty debris disk. For the significant transits we observe, we compare the transit depths in the V- and R-bands of our multiwavelength photometry, and find no significant difference; therefore, for likely compositions the radius of single-size particles in the cometary tails streaming behind the planetesimals in this system must be ∼0.15 μm or larger, or ∼0.06 μm or smaller, with 2σ confidence

New Political History: Some Statistical Questions Answered

William G. Shade's ( 1981) "New Political History: Some Statistical Questions Raised" has two sometimes conflicting purposes: first, to remind historians to "think statistically" and to "give more self-conscious attention to the details and logic of research design," and second, to defend such ethnocultural historians as Ronald P. Formisano and Paul Kleppner against published criticisms. Too often confusing the former with the latter aim, Shade attains neither. His article is further compromised by distortions of other scholars' work and neglect of relevant literature published since 1974.1 With Shade's two major prescriptions - plan research carefully and use genuinely multivariate methods-we have no quarrel. Often breached in practice, these familiar commandments can never be repeated too many times. To his lack of conceptual rigor, to his employment of a series of either meaningless or misleading "tests," and to several of his methodological dicta, we do take exception-thus the necessity for this note

Turning Over a New Leaf: Cannabinoid and Endocannabinoid Modulation of Immune Function

Cannabis is a complex substance that harbors terpenoid-like compounds referred to as phytocannabinoids. The major psychoactive phytocannabinoid found in cannabis ∆9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) produces the majority of its pharmacological effects through two cannabinoid receptors, termed CB1 and CB2. The discovery of these receptors as linked functionally to distinct biological effects of THC, and the subsequent development of synthetic cannabinoids, precipitated discovery of the endogenous cannabinoid (or endocannabinoid) system. This system consists of the endogenous lipid ligands N- arachidonoylethanolamine (anandamide; AEA) and 2-arachidonylglycerol (2-AG), their biosynthetic and degradative enzymes, and the CB1 and CB2 receptors that they activate. Endocannabinoids have been identified in immune cells such as monocytes, macrophages, basophils, lymphocytes, and dendritic cells and are believed to be enzymatically produced and released “on demand” in a similar fashion as the eicosanoids. It is now recognized that other phytocannabinoids such as cannabidiol (CBD) and cannabinol (CBN) can alter the functional activities of the immune system. This special edition of the Journal of Neuroimmune Pharmacology (JNIP) presents a collection of cutting edge original research and review articles on the medical implications of phytocannabinoids and the endocannabinoid system. The goal of this special edition is to provide an unbiased assessment of the state of research related to this topic from leading researchers in the field. The potential untoward effects as well as beneficial uses of marijuana, its phytocannabinoid composition, and synthesized cannabinoid analogs are discussed. In addition, the role of the endocannabinoid system and approaches to its manipulation to treat select human disease processes are addressed

Segment and track neurons in 3D by repulsive snake method

We present a snake (active contour) model based on repulsive force to segment neurons obtained from microscopy. Based on these segmentation results, we track the neurons in 3D image to look for its branch structure. These segmentation results allow user to study morphology of neurons to further investigate neuronal function and connectivity. This repulsive snake model can successfully segment two or multiple neurons that are close to each other by some alternating repulsive force generated from the neighboring objects. We apply our results on real data to demonstrate the performance of our method. © 2005 IEEE.published_or_final_versio

Critical Elections in Historical Perspective

For a generation, the theory of critical elections has been a guiding research program for the study of American political history. As fashioned by such distinguished scholars as V. O. Key, Jr., Angus Campbell, Walter Dean Burnham, and Paul Allen Beck, critical election theory posits that American democracy follows an episodic pattern of change and stability. According to the prevailing wisdom, one or more critical elections periodically reorganize coalitions of voters, create new balances of party power, and introduce policy initiatives that respond to unmet needs. Realignments, in this view, are not historical accidents, but processes built into the dynamics of party identification and governmental structure in the United States. Through a quantitative analysis of presidential election returns and party registration statistics (both measured for counties), this paper will challenge the application of critical election theory to the realignments of the 1890s and the 1930s. The results of analysis show that in neither case did shifts in the electorate follow the pattern predicted by realignment theory. It also reveals significant differences in each of the two periods that question the application of a single theory to historical distinct episodes of political change. The paper also presents a situational logic to account for the capacity of incumbent parties to sustain their power over extended periods of time