Modelling human choices: MADeM and decision‑making

Research supported by FAPESP 2015/50122-0 and DFG-GRTK 1740/2. RP and AR are also part of the Research, Innovation and Dissemination Center for Neuromathematics FAPESP grant (2013/07699-0). RP is supported by a FAPESP scholarship (2013/25667-8). ACR is partially supported by a CNPq fellowship (grant 306251/2014-0)

Risk of Microvascular Complications and Macrovascular Risk Factors in Early-Onset Type 1 Diabetes after at Least 10 Years Duration: An Analysis of Three Population-Based Cross-Sectional Surveys in Germany between 2009 and 2016

Aims. To estimate the risk of microvascular complications and macrovascular risk factors among persons with early-onset (diagnosed at ages 0 to <5 years) and long-duration type 1 diabetes and determine temporal trends and associations with potential predictors. Methods. We conducted three population-based cross-sectional surveys in Germany (N=1789) to obtain information on exposures and five outcomes (retinopathy, nephropathy, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and a composite endpoint combining all four outcomes). For each outcome, log-binomial spline regression was applied to estimate the risk and dose-response relationship with diabetes duration and exposures. Results. The risk for microvascular complications increased after 14 years since diabetes diagnosis whereas dyslipidemia and hypertension were already prevalent at 10 years. The 15-year risk (95% confidence interval) of the composite endpoint for female and male patients was 22.9% (18.8%–27.9%) and 19.2% (15.5%–23.8%), respectively. Temporal trends suggested a decreasing risk between 2009 and 2016. Glycemic control, lifestyle-related factors, and SES, but not health care-related factors, were associated with the risk of the composite endpoint. Conclusions. In early-onset type 1 diabetes, there exists a considerable risk of complications and comorbidities already in young ages. Future research should focus on prevention of diabetic complications in young patients and clarification of pathways of the associations found

Potential Markers of Dietary Glycemic Exposures for Sustained Dietary Interventions in Populations without Diabetes

There is considerable interest in dietary and other approaches to maintaining blood glucose concentrations within the normal range and minimizing exposure to postprandial hyperglycemic excursions. The accepted marker to evaluate the sustained maintenance of normal blood glucose concentrations is glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). However, although this is used in clinical practice to monitor glycemic control in patients with diabetes, it has a number of drawbacks as a marker of efficacy of dietary interventions that might beneficially affect glycemic control in people without diabetes. Other markers that reflect shorter-term glycemic exposures have been studied and proposed, but consensus on the use and relevance of these markers is lacking. We have carried out a systematic search for studies that have tested the responsiveness of 6 possible alternatives to HbA1c as markers of sustained variation in glycemic exposures and thus their potential applicability for use in dietary intervention trials in subjects without diabetes: 1,5-anhydroglucitol (1,5-AG), dicarbonyl stress, fructosamine, glycated albumin (GA), advanced glycated end products (AGEs), and metabolomic profiles. The results suggest that GA may be the most promising for this purpose, but values may be confounded by effects of fat mass. 1,5-AG and fructosamine are probably not sensitive enough to the range of variation in glycemic exposures observed in healthy individuals. Use of measures based on dicarbonyls, AGEs, or metabolomic profiles would require further research into possible specific molecular species of interest. At present, none of the markers considered here is sufficiently validated and sensitive for routine use in substantiating the effects of sustained variation in dietary glycemic exposures in people without diabetes