The Spatial Limitations of Current Neutral Models of Biodiversity

The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography is increasingly accepted as an informative null model of community composition and dynamics. It has successfully produced macro-ecological patterns such as species-area relationships and species abundance distributions. However, the models employed make many unrealistic auxiliary assumptions. For example, the popular spatially implicit version assumes a local plot exchanging migrants with a large panmictic regional source pool. This simple structure allows rigorous testing of its fit to data. In contrast, spatially explicit models assume that offspring disperse only limited distances from their parents, but one cannot as yet test the significance of their fit to data. Here we compare the spatially explicit and the spatially implicit model, fitting the most-used implicit model (with two levels, local and regional) to data simulated by the most-used spatially explicit model (where offspring are distributed about their parent on a grid according to either a radially symmetric Gaussian or a ‘fat-tailed’ distribution). Based on these fits, we express spatially implicit parameters in terms of spatially explicit parameters. This suggests how we may obtain estimates of spatially explicit parameters from spatially implicit ones. The relationship between these parameters, however, makes no intuitive sense. Furthermore, the spatially implicit model usually fits observed species-abundance distributions better than those calculated from the spatially explicit model's simulated data. Current spatially explicit neutral models therefore have limited descriptive power. However, our results suggest that a fatter tail of the dispersal kernel seems to improve the fit, suggesting that dispersal kernels with even fatter tails should be studied in future. We conclude that more advanced spatially explicit models and tools to analyze them need to be developed

Stem cells are the most sensitive screening tool to identify toxicity of GATA4-targeted novel small-molecule compounds

Safety assessment of drug candidates in numerous in vitro and experimental animal models is expensive, time consuming and animal intensive. More thorough toxicity profiling already in the early drug discovery projects using human cell models, which more closely resemble the physiological cell types, would help to decrease drug development costs. In this study we aimed to compare different cardiac and stem cell models for in vitro toxicity testing and to elucidate structure-toxicity relationships of novel compounds targeting the cardiac transcription factor GATA4. By screening the effects of eight compounds at concentrations ranging from 10 nM up to 30 µM on the viability of eight different cell types, we identified significant cell type- and structure-dependent toxicity profiles. We further characterized two compounds in more detail using high-content analysis. The results highlight the importance of cell type selection for toxicity screening and indicate that stem cells represent the most sensitive screening model, which can detect toxicity that may otherwise remain unnoticed. Furthermore, our structure-toxicity analysis reveals a characteristic dihedral angle in the GATA4-targeted compounds that causes stem cell toxicity and thus helps to direct further drug development efforts towards non-toxic derivatives

Phylogeography of Japanese encephalitis virus:genotype is associated with climate

The circulation of vector-borne zoonotic viruses is largely determined by the overlap in the geographical distributions of virus-competent vectors and reservoir hosts. What is less clear are the factors influencing the distribution of virus-specific lineages. Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is the most important etiologic agent of epidemic encephalitis worldwide, and is primarily maintained between vertebrate reservoir hosts (avian and swine) and culicine mosquitoes. There are five genotypes of JEV: GI-V. In recent years, GI has displaced GIII as the dominant JEV genotype and GV has re-emerged after almost 60 years of undetected virus circulation. JEV is found throughout most of Asia, extending from maritime Siberia in the north to Australia in the south, and as far as Pakistan to the west and Saipan to the east. Transmission of JEV in temperate zones is epidemic with the majority of cases occurring in summer months, while transmission in tropical zones is endemic and occurs year-round at lower rates. To test the hypothesis that viruses circulating in these two geographical zones are genetically distinct, we applied Bayesian phylogeographic, categorical data analysis and phylogeny-trait association test techniques to the largest JEV dataset compiled to date, representing the envelope (E) gene of 487 isolates collected from 12 countries over 75 years. We demonstrated that GIII and the recently emerged GI-b are temperate genotypes likely maintained year-round in northern latitudes, while GI-a and GII are tropical genotypes likely maintained primarily through mosquito-avian and mosquito-swine transmission cycles. This study represents a new paradigm directly linking viral molecular evolution and climate

The long-term prediction of return to work following serious accidental injuries: A follow up study

Background Considerable indirect costs are incurred by time taken off work following accidental injuries. The aim of this study was to predict return to work following serious accidental injuries. Method 121 severely injured patients were included in the study. Complete follow-up data were available for 85 patients. Two weeks post trauma (T1), patients rated their appraisal of the injury severity and their ability to cope with the injury and its job-related consequences. Time off work was assessed at one (T2) and three years (T3) post accident. The main outcome was the number of days of sick leave taken due to the accidental injury. Results The patients' appraisals a) of the injury severity and b) of their coping abilities regarding the accidental injury and its job-related consequences were significant predictors of the number of sick-leave days taken. Injury severity (ISS), type of accident, age and gender did not contribute significantly to the prediction. Conclusions Return to work in the long term is best predicted by the patients' own appraisal of both their injury severity and the ability to cope with the accidental injury

Putting lives in danger? Tinker, tailor, journalist, spy: the use of journalistic cover

The Anglo-American intelligence agencies’ use of journalists as spies or propagandists and the practice of providing intelligence agents in the field with journalistic cover have been a source of controversy for many decades. This paper examines the extent to which these covert practices have taken place and whether they have put journalists’ lives in danger. This paper, drawing on various methodologies, examines a number of cases where the arrest, murder or kidnap of journalists was justified on the grounds that the journalist was a ‘spy’. This has been followed through with research using a range of sources that shows there have been many occasions when the distinction between spies and journalists has been opaque. The paper concludes that widespread use of journalistic cover by spies has put lives in danger but the extent is unquantifiable

Overexpression of the Axl tyrosine kinase receptor in cutaneous SCC-derived cell lines and tumours

The molecular mechanisms that underlie the development of squamous cell skin cancers (SSC) are poorly understood. We have used oligonucleotide microarrays to compare the differences in cellular gene expression between a series of keratinocyte cell that mimic disease progression with the aim of identifying genes that may potentially contribute towards squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) progression in vivo, and in particular to identify markers that may serve as potential therapeutic targets for SCC treatment. Gene expression differences were corroborated by polymerase chain reaction and Western blotting. We identified Axl, a receptor tyrosine kinase with transforming potential that has also been shown to have a role in cell survival, adhesion and chemotaxis, was upregulated in vitro in SCC-derived cells compared to premalignant cells. Extending the investigation to tumour biopsies showed that the Axl protein was overexpressed in vivo in a series of SCCs

A niche remedy for the dynamical problems of neutral theory

We demonstrate how niche theory and Hubbell's original formulation of neutral theory can be blended together into a general framework modeling the combined effects of selection, drift, speciation, and dispersal on community dynamics. This framework connects many seemingly unrelated ecological population models, and allows for quantitative predictions to be made about the impact of niche stabilizing and destabilizing forces on population extinction times and abundance distributions. In particular, the existence of niche stabilizing forces in our blended framework can simultaneously resolve two major problems with the dynamics of neutral theory, namely predictions of species lifetimes that are too short and species ages that are too long.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figures, Accepted to Theoretical Ecolog

Two-stage directed self-assembly of a cyclic [3]catenane.

Interlocked molecules possess properties and functions that depend upon their intricate connectivity. In addition to the topologically trivial rotaxanes, whose structures may be captured by a planar graph, the topologically non-trivial knots and catenanes represent some of chemistry's most challenging synthetic targets because of the three-dimensional assembly necessary for their construction. Here we report the synthesis of a cyclic [3]catenane, which consists of three mutually interpenetrating rings, via an unusual synthetic route. Five distinct building blocks self-assemble into a heteroleptic triangular framework composed of two joined Fe(II)3L3 circular helicates. Subcomponent exchange then enables specific points in the framework to be linked together to generate the cyclic [3]catenane product. Our method represents an advance both in the intricacy of the metal-templated self-assembly procedure and in the use of selective imine exchange to generate a topologically complex product.This work was supported by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and a Marie Curie fellowship for J.J.H. (ITN-2010–264645). The authors thank the Diamond Light Source (UK) for synchrotron beamtime on I19 (MT7984 and MT8464).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from NPG via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nchem.220

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation