A machine learning approach to predict resilience and sickness absence in the healthcare workforce during the COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare workers (HCWs) have faced unprecedented workloads and personal health risks leading to mental disorders and surges in sickness absence. Previous work has shown that interindividual differences in psychological resilience might explain why only some individuals are vulnerable to these consequences. However, no prognostic tools to predict individual HCW resilience during the pandemic have been developed. We deployed machine learning (ML) to predict psychological resilience during the pandemic. The models were trained in HCWs of the largest Finnish hospital, Helsinki University Hospital (HUS, N = 487), with a six-month follow-up, and prognostic generalizability was evaluated in two independent HCW validation samples (Social and Health Services in Kymenlaakso: Kymsote, N = 77 and the City of Helsinki, N = 322) with similar follow-ups never used for training the models. Using the most predictive items to predict future psychological resilience resulted in a balanced accuracy (BAC) of 72.7-74.3% in the HUS sample. Similar performances (BAC = 67-77%) were observed in the two independent validation samples. The models' predictions translated to a high probability of sickness absence during the pandemic. Our results provide the first evidence that ML techniques could be harnessed for the early detection of COVID-19-related distress among HCWs, thereby providing an avenue for potential targeted interventions.Peer reviewe

Predictors of vitamin D status and its association with parathyroid hormone in young New Zealand children.

BACKGROUND: Despite increased awareness of the adverse health effects of low vitamin D status, few studies have evaluated 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] status in young children. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess vitamin D status on the basis of 25(OH)D and its relation with parathyroid hormone (PTH) and to identify possible predictors of 25(OH)D status in young children living in a country with minimal vitamin D fortification. DESIGN: Serum 25(OH)D and PTH concentrations were measured in a cross-sectional sample of children aged 12-22 mo [n = 193 for 25(OH)D, n = 144 for PTH] living in Dunedin, New Zealand (latitude: 45 degrees S). Anthropometric, dietary, and sociodemographic data were collected. RESULTS: The majority of children sampled in the summer (94%; 47 of 50) had 25(OH)D >50 nmol/L; however, nearly 80% of children sampled in the winter (43 of 55) had serum concentrations 60-65 nmol/L, a plateau in PTH was evident. CONCLUSIONS: Seasonal variation in 25(OH)D concentration implies that postsummer vitamin D stores were insufficient to maintain status >50 nmol/L year-round. Examination of the predictors of 25(OH)D in our model shows few modifiable risk factors, and thus effective dietary strategies may be required if future research determines that children with 25(OH)D concentrations <50 nmol/L are at significant health risk. This trial was registered at www.actr.org.au as ACTRN12605000487617

KSHV Reactivation from Latency Requires Pim-1 and Pim-3 Kinases to Inactivate the Latency-Associated Nuclear Antigen LANA

Host signal-transduction pathways are intimately involved in the switch between latency and productive infection of herpes viruses. As with other herpes viruses, infection by Kaposi's sarcoma herpesvirus (KSHV) displays these two phases. During latency only few viral genes are expressed, while in the productive infection the virus is reactivated with initiation of extensive viral DNA replication and gene expression, resulting in production of new viral particles. Viral reactivation is crucial for KSHV pathogenesis and contributes to the progression of KS. We have recently identified Pim-1 as a kinase reactivating KSHV upon over-expression. Here we show that another Pim family kinase, Pim-3, also induces viral reactivation. We demonstrate that expression of both Pim-1 and Pim-3 is induced in response to physiological and chemical reactivation in naturally KSHV-infected cells, and we show that they are required for KSHV reactivation under these conditions. Furthermore, our data indicate that Pim-1 and Pim-3 contribute to viral reactivation by phosphorylating the KSHV latency-associated nuclear antigen (LANA) on serine residues 205 and 206. This counteracts the LANA–mediated repression of the KSHV lytic gene transcription. The identification of Pim family kinases as novel cellular regulators of the gammaherpesvirus life cycle facilitates a deeper understanding of virus–host interactions during reactivation and may represent potential novel targets for therapeutic intervention

The Glanville fritillary genome retains ancient karyotype and reveals selective chromosomal fusions in Lepidoptera

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The 22q11.2 region regulates presynaptic gene-products linked to schizophrenia

How the 22q11.2 deletion predisposes to psychiatric disease is unclear. Here, the authors examine living human neuronal cells and show that 22q11.2 regulates the expression of genes linked to autism during early development, and genes linked to schizophrenia and synaptic biology in neurons. It is unclear how the 22q11.2 deletion predisposes to psychiatric disease. To study this, we generated induced pluripotent stem cells from deletion carriers and controls and utilized CRISPR/Cas9 to introduce the heterozygous deletion into a control cell line. Here, we show that upon differentiation into neural progenitor cells, the deletion acted in trans to alter the abundance of transcripts associated with risk for neurodevelopmental disorders including autism. In excitatory neurons, altered transcripts encoded presynaptic factors and were associated with genetic risk for schizophrenia, including common and rare variants. To understand how the deletion contributed to these changes, we defined the minimal protein-protein interaction network that best explains gene expression alterations. We found that many genes in 22q11.2 interact in presynaptic, proteasome, and JUN/FOS transcriptional pathways. Our findings suggest that the 22q11.2 deletion impacts genes that may converge with psychiatric risk loci to influence disease manifestation in each deletion carrier.Peer reviewe

Low but contrasting neutral genetic differentiation shaped by winter temperature in European great tits

Gene flow is usually thought to reduce genetic divergence and impede local adaptation by homogenising gene pools between populations. However, evidence for local adaptation and phenotypic differentiation in highly mobile species, experiencing high levels of gene flow, is emerging. Assessing population genetic structure at different spatial scales is thus a crucial step towards understanding mechanisms underlying intraspecific differentiation and diversification. Here, we studied the population genetic structure of a highly mobile species – the great tit Parus major – at different spatial scales. We analysed 884 individuals from 30 sites across Europe including 10 close-by sites (< 50 km), using 22 microsatellite markers. Overall we found a low but significant genetic differentiation among sites (FST = 0.008). Genetic differentiation was higher, and genetic diversity lower, in south-western Europe. These regional differences were statistically best explained by winter temperature. Overall, our results suggest that great tits form a single patchy metapopulation across Europe, in which genetic differentiation is independent of geographical distance and gene flow may be regulated by environmental factors via movements related to winter severity. This might have important implications for the evolutionary trajectories of sub-populations, especially in the context of climate change, and calls for future investigations of local differences in costs and benefits of philopatry at large scales

Systematic reviews of observational studies of Risk of Thrombosis and Bleeding in General and Gynecologic Surgery (ROTBIGGS) : introduction and methodology

Funding Information: The Risk of Thrombosis and Bleeding in General and Gynecologic Surgery (ROTBIGGS) project was conducted by the Clinical Urology and Epidemiology (CLUE) Working Group and supported by the Academy of Finland (309387, 340957), Sigrid Jusélius Foundation and Competitive Research Funding of the Helsinki University Hospital (TYH2019321; TYH2020248). The sponsors had no role in the analysis and interpretation of the data or the manuscript preparation, review, or approval. Funding Information: KMA received a research grant from Astra Zeneca, and is consultant for Gedeon Richter, and received reimbursement for attending a scientific meeting from GSK (Tesaro Bio). RMT received reimbursement for attending a scientific meeting from Olympus. LIL, GHG, YL, RC, ALL, VJS, IEJK, PJK, RJC, RLA, KA, KMA, IB-L, MHB, JLC, SC, PJG, HAG-P, FZG, HAG, LH, MLI-K, KMJ, PKK, NK, TPK, AJK, TK, HL, AKM, BTN, TPN, CN, SMO, SP, NP, CBBR, ARR, TS, RMT, RWMV, YW, YX, LY, JH, and KAOT have no financial conflicts of interest. GHG and RC were panel members of the European Association of Urology (EAU) ad hoc Guideline on Thromboprophylaxis in Urological Surgery. KAOT was chair of the European Association of Urology (EAU) ad hoc Guideline on Thromboprophylaxis in Urological Surgery and panel member of the American Society of Hematology (ASH) Guideline Panel on Prevention of Venous Thromboembolism (VTE) in Surgical Hospitalized Patients. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).Background Venous thromboembolism (VTE) and bleeding are serious and potentially fatal complications of surgical procedures. Pharmacological thromboprophylaxis decreases the risk of VTE but increases the risk of major post-operative bleeding. The decision to use pharmacologic prophylaxis therefore represents a trade-off that critically depends on the incidence of VTE and bleeding in the absence of prophylaxis. These baseline risks vary widely between procedures, but their magnitude is uncertain. Systematic reviews addressing baseline risks are scarce, needed, and require innovations in methodology. Indeed, systematic summaries of these baseline risk estimates exist neither in general nor gynecologic surgery. We will fill this knowledge gap by performing a series of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of the procedure-specific and patient risk factor stratified risk estimates in general and gynecologic surgeries. Methods We will perform comprehensive literature searches for observational studies in general and gynecologic surgery reporting symptomatic VTE or bleeding estimates. Pairs of methodologically trained reviewers will independently assess the studies for eligibility, evaluate the risk of bias by using an instrument developed for this review, and extract data. We will perform meta-analyses and modeling studies to adjust the reported risk estimates for the use of thromboprophylaxis and length of follow up. We will derive the estimates of risk from the median estimates of studies rated at the lowest risk of bias. The primary outcomes are the risk estimates of symptomatic VTE and major bleeding at 4 weeks post-operatively for each procedure stratified by patient risk factors. We will apply the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach to rate evidence certainty. Discussion This series of systematic reviews, modeling studies, and meta-analyses will inform clinicians and patients regarding the trade-off between VTE prevention and bleeding in general and gynecologic surgeries. Our work advances the standards in systematic reviews of surgical complications, including assessment of risk of bias, criteria for arriving at the best estimates of risk (including modeling of the timing of events and dealing with suboptimal data reporting), dealing with subgroups at higher and lower risk of bias, and use of the GRADE approach. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42021234119Peer reviewe

Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses of the Procedure-specific Risks of Thrombosis and Bleeding in General Abdominal, Colorectal, Upper Gastrointestinal, and Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery

Objective: To provide procedure-specific estimates of symptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) and major bleeding after abdominal surgery. Background: The use of pharmacological thromboprophylaxis represents a trade-off that depends on VTE and bleeding risks that vary between procedures; their magnitude remains uncertain. Methods: We identified observational studies reporting procedure-specific risks of symptomatic VTE or major bleeding after abdominal surgery, adjusted the reported estimates for thromboprophylaxis and length of follow-up, and estimated cumulative incidence at 4 weeks postsurgery, stratified by VTE risk groups, and rated evidence certainty. Results: After eligibility screening, 285 studies (8,048,635 patients) reporting on 40 general abdominal, 36 colorectal, 15 upper gastrointestinal, and 24 hepatopancreatobiliary surgery procedures proved eligible. Evidence certainty proved generally moderate or low for VTE and low or very low for bleeding requiring reintervention. The risk of VTE varied substantially among procedures: in general abdominal surgery from a median of <0.1% in laparoscopic cholecystectomy to a median of 3.7% in open small bowel resection, in colorectal from 0.3% in minimally invasive sigmoid colectomy to 10.0% in emergency open total proctocolectomy, and in upper gastrointestinal/hepatopancreatobiliary from 0.2% in laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy to 6.8% in open distal pancreatectomy for cancer. Conclusions: VTE thromboprophylaxis provides net benefit through VTE reduction with a small increase in bleeding in some procedures (eg, open colectomy and open pancreaticoduodenectomy), whereas the opposite is true in others (eg, laparoscopic cholecystectomy and elective groin hernia repairs). In many procedures, thromboembolism and bleeding risks are similar, and decisions depend on individual risk prediction and values and preferences regarding VTE and bleeding

Systematic reviews of observational studies of Risk of Thrombosis and Bleeding in General and Gynecologic Surgery (ROTBIGGS): introduction and methodology

Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) and bleeding are serious and potentially fatal complications of surgical procedures. Pharmacological thromboprophylaxis decreases the risk of VTE but increases the risk of major post-operative bleeding. The decision to use pharmacologic prophylaxis therefore represents a trade-off that critically depends on the incidence of VTE and bleeding in the absence of prophylaxis. These baseline risks vary widely between procedures, but their magnitude is uncertain. Systematic reviews addressing baseline risks are scarce, needed, and require innovations in methodology. Indeed, systematic summaries of these baseline risk estimates exist neither in general nor gynecologic surgery. We will fill this knowledge gap by performing a series of systematic reviews and meta-analyses of the procedure-specific and patient risk factor stratified risk estimates in general and gynecologic surgeries.Methods: We will perform comprehensive literature searches for observational studies in general and gynecologic surgery reporting symptomatic VTE or bleeding estimates. Pairs of methodologically trained reviewers will independently assess the studies for eligibility, evaluate the risk of bias by using an instrument developed for this review, and extract data. We will perform meta-analyses and modeling studies to adjust the reported risk estimates for the use of thromboprophylaxis and length of follow up. We will derive the estimates of risk from the median estimates of studies rated at the lowest risk of bias. The primary outcomes are the risk estimates of symptomatic VTE and major bleeding at 4 weeks post-operatively for each procedure stratified by patient risk factors. We will apply the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach to rate evidence certainty.Discussion: This series of systematic reviews, modeling studies, and meta-analyses will inform clinicians and patients regarding the trade-off between VTE prevention and bleeding in general and gynecologic surgeries. Our work advances the standards in systematic reviews of surgical complications, including assessment of risk of bias, criteria for arriving at the best estimates of risk (including modeling of the timing of events and dealing with suboptimal data reporting), dealing with subgroups at higher and lower risk of bias, and use of the GRADE approach.Systematic review registration: PROSPERO CRD42021234119</p