Dayton Starts with Edge in Democratic Primary and Fall Election

According to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll, Mark Dayton starts the election season leading his rivals in the Democratic Party primary among likely voters and Dayton may also enjoy a slight edge over the presumptive Republican gubernatorial candidate, Tom Emmer, among Minnesota adults. Dayton leads Emmer by a 35% to 31% margin, which is within the margin of error and is a toss-up in statistical terms. Emmer is deadlocked with the two other contenders for the Democratic Party’s nomination, the Democratic Party’s endorsed candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Matt Entenza. These are fluid races in which a quarter or more have not made up their mind and the endorsed Independence Party candidate, Tom Horner, is drawing about 10%.Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, UM

Obama Surges by Building Broad Support and Eroding McCain Strengths

The latest Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll shows Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama with his largest lead of the campaign over his Republican rival John McCain, 56% to 37%. Senator Obama’s 19 point advantage doubles the lead he enjoyed earlier this month and before the August party conventions.Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, UM

Dayton and Emmer Deadlocked

As the general election campaign for Governor enters the symbolic starting point of Labor Day, the Democratic candidate Mark Dayton is deadlocked with the Republican candidate Tom Emmer, 34% for Dayton compared to 34% for Emmer. The Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is drawing 13% support.Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, UM

U.S. Senate Race is a Toss Up: Anti-Republican Winds Help Franken, Coleman Bolstered by Swing Voters and Centrism

According to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll, the DFL endorsed candidate Al Franken is locked in a close race with incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Norm Coleman. Forty-one percent support Franken and 40% support Coleman, well within the margin of error (+/-3.6 percentage points). Eight percent support contending Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley. The race is wide open with 11% undecided.Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, UM

The Backlash in Minnesota: Economic Distress and Political Distrust

Reeling from the economic downturn and the sense that the country and state are lurching off in the wrong direction, Minnesotans express significant distrust of government and Wall Street according to the Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll.Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, UM

Obama Leads But Race Remains Fluid with Possible McCain Lift from Choosing Pawlenty

According to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leads his Republican counterpart, John McCain, 48% to 38% among likely Minnesota voters. Three percent favor Ralph Nader and 1% supports Libertarian Bob Barr.Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, UM

Minnesota State Politics: Battles Over Constitution and State House

According to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute study of likely Minnesota voters, state politics is fiery and unpredictable. A month from Election Day, three themes emerge. First of all, the Constitutional Amendment to increase sales taxes to fund projects in the arts and outdoors faces an uphill battle. Secondly, Democrats enjoy a significant advantage in the battle for state house seats. Lastly, Senator Amy Klobuchar and Governor Tim Pawlenty enjoy strong approval ratings while Senator Coleman continues to receive far weaker ratings. The results are based on interviews with 766 likely voters conducted between September 29th and October 5th. The margin of error is +/-3.6 percentage points. For smaller subgroups the margin of sampling error is larger.Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, UM

Coleman Lead Neutralized by Financial Crisis and Polarizing Presidential Politics

According to two Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute polls, Republican U.S. Senator Norm Coleman’s 9 point lead over Democrat Al Franken and Independence Party candidate Dean Barkely was neutralized by the extraordinary financial crisis and the resulting congressional response along with the polarizing reaction to the Vice Presidential debate on October 2nd. In the three days before October 2nd, Coleman enjoyed a 9 point lead (40 percent versus 31 percent for Franken and 14 percent for Barkley); in the three days after October 2nd, which included congressional enactment of the $700 billion financial rescue on October 3rd and the polarizing reaction to the Vice Presidential debate, Franken took a 4 point lead (41 percent versus 37 percent for Coleman and 14 percent for Barkely). Franken’s edge was within the margin of error of 4.8 points; the race should be considered a statistical toss-up.Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, UM

Free Thinking Minnesota: Approval of Governor and Opposition to New Sales Tax but Support for Democrats in State Legislative Races and Doubts About Lt. Governor

Despite lingering perceptions of Minnesota as a “lock” for the Democratic Party and supportive of “big government,” the political attitudes of Minnesotan voters are not so clear cut. According to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll, voters do have conservative views on some issues.Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, UM

Dayton Holds Double-Digit Lead Over Emmer and Late Trends May Favor Democrat

According the latest Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute Poll, the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton has opened a 12 point lead over the Republican Party candidate Tom Emmer, 41% to 29%. This represents a distinct shift from the deadlock that existed at the end of August. The Independence Party candidate is receiving 11% support with 20% not having settled on any candidate.Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, UM