Stopped TTIP? Its potential impact on the world and the role of neglected FDI

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) seems to be a doomed half-negotiated trade deal with Donald Trump in power. If it were definitely abandoned, the effects of what could have been the largest trade agreement in history would disappear. In this paper we analyze its potential impact on the world and on insiders and outsiders of the agreement using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. In our simulation, TTIP consists of reductions of tariffs, non-tariff barriers and a previously neglected component, namely, barriers to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The impact of the FDI component would be larger for the US than for the EU. In the US, it would contribute to nearly half of the overall impact of TTIP, while in the EU it would be nearly one third. Insiders would heavily benefit from TTIP but the effects could potentially be very slightly negative for outsiders (Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and Other Advanced Countries), with the exception of the big Asian economies (China, Japan and India). The latter would remain unaffected. However, all the slightly potential negative effects would turn into positive with an “inclusive TTIP” (i.e., one avoiding third country discriminating rules and standards). An inclusive TTIP would benefit both insiders, who would gain more, and outsiders, who would be better off than without the TTIP. Welfare, GDP, wages, as well as aggregate imports and exports of the world economy would clearly increase following either a shallow or a deep TTIP agreement

El impacto económico del Brexit en España

La Secretaría de Estado de Comercio encargó un estudio que analizara en profundidad los posibles efectos del Brexit en la economía española. Para ello, los autores utilizaron un modelo de equilibrio general computable capaz de capturar los impactos directos e indirectos del Brexit sobre un amplio número de sectores productivos de bienes y servicios. Ante el elevado nivel de incertidumbre sobre el acuerdo, se consideraron cuatro escenarios distintos. En todos ellos, el Brexit tendría consecuencias negativas para el PIB y el empleo en España, así como para el comercio y la inversión extranjera directa que la economía española emite y recibe. La salida del Reino Unido supondrá la aparición de trabas a los flujos tanto comerciales como de inversión directa, de mayor o menor intensidad según el escenario contemplado, y tendrá efectos negativos sobre las principales variables económicas. La caída del PIB oscilaría entre el -0,64%, en el escenario más negativo de salida sin acuerdo, y el -0,32%, en un Brexit blando. El estudio destaca que el impacto del Brexit vendría explicado fundamentalmente por el aumento previsto de las barreras no arancelarias y de las barreras a la inversión directa, mientras que el efecto de las barreras arancelarias sería menor. Cabe señalar que los resultados a los que llega el estudio son consistentes con las estimaciones de otros estudios previos. La contracción que experimentaría la economía española sería similar a la del resto de la Unión Europea, pero, muy inferior a la que se produciría en el Reino Unido, que perdería su acceso preferente a un enorme mercado. El estudio muestra que el impacto del Brexit sobre los distintos sectores de actividad sería heterogéneo y algunos sectores concretos sufrirían un shock más intenso. El análisis cuantifica el impacto sobre producción, exportaciones e importaciones de 22 sectores. Al interpretar los resultados, es importante tener en cuenta que las cifras del estudio son una buena aproximación al impacto previsible, pero deben ser tomadas con cautela, especialmente al nivel más desagregado, ya que todo modelo se apoya en supuestos que simplifican notablemente la realidad económica. Las estimaciones de este estudio se realizaron en febrero de 2020, antes de que se conociera el elevado impacto económico de la COVID-19. Sus resultados continúan, en general, siendo válidos, pero perderían validez si la actual crisis provoca cambios significativos y duraderos en nuestra estructura económica y nuestros flujos comerciales y de inversión

Gamificación en el aula con Kahoot! en la Facultad de Estudios Estadísticos

Memoria final del proyecto de innovación docente titulado: "Gamificación en el aula con Kahoot! en la Facultad de Estudios Estadísticos

Treatment with tocilizumab or corticosteroids for COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammatory state: a multicentre cohort study (SAM-COVID-19)

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the association between tocilizumab or corticosteroids and the risk of intubation or death in patients with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) with a hyperinflammatory state according to clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods: A cohort study was performed in 60 Spanish hospitals including 778 patients with COVID-19 and clinical and laboratory data indicative of a hyperinflammatory state. Treatment was mainly with tocilizumab, an intermediate-high dose of corticosteroids (IHDC), a pulse dose of corticosteroids (PDC), combination therapy, or no treatment. Primary outcome was intubation or death; follow-up was 21 days. Propensity score-adjusted estimations using Cox regression (logistic regression if needed) were calculated. Propensity scores were used as confounders, matching variables and for the inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTWs). Results: In all, 88, 117, 78 and 151 patients treated with tocilizumab, IHDC, PDC, and combination therapy, respectively, were compared with 344 untreated patients. The primary endpoint occurred in 10 (11.4%), 27 (23.1%), 12 (15.4%), 40 (25.6%) and 69 (21.1%), respectively. The IPTW-based hazard ratios (odds ratio for combination therapy) for the primary endpoint were 0.32 (95%CI 0.22-0.47; p < 0.001) for tocilizumab, 0.82 (0.71-1.30; p 0.82) for IHDC, 0.61 (0.43-0.86; p 0.006) for PDC, and 1.17 (0.86-1.58; p 0.30) for combination therapy. Other applications of the propensity score provided similar results, but were not significant for PDC. Tocilizumab was also associated with lower hazard of death alone in IPTW analysis (0.07; 0.02-0.17; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Tocilizumab might be useful in COVID-19 patients with a hyperinflammatory state and should be prioritized for randomized trials in this situatio

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Largest HIV-1 CRF02_AG Outbreak in Spain: Evidence for Onward Transmissions

Background and Aim: The circulating recombinant form 02_AG (CRF02_AG) is the predominant clade among the human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) non-Bs with a prevalence of 5.97% (95% Confidence Interval-CI: 5.41–6.57%) across Spain. Our aim was to estimate the levels of regional clustering for CRF02_AG and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the largest CRF02_AG subepidemic in Spain.Methods: We studied 396 CRF02_AG sequences obtained from HIV-1 diagnosed patients during 2000–2014 from 10 autonomous communities of Spain. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on the 391 CRF02_AG sequences along with all globally sampled CRF02_AG sequences (N = 3,302) as references. Phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis was performed to the largest CRF02_AG monophyletic cluster by a Bayesian method in BEAST v1.8.0 and by reconstructing ancestral states using the criterion of parsimony in Mesquite v3.4, respectively.Results: The HIV-1 CRF02_AG prevalence differed across Spanish autonomous communities we sampled from (p &lt; 0.001). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 52.7% of the CRF02_AG sequences formed 56 monophyletic clusters, with a range of 2–79 sequences. The CRF02_AG regional dispersal differed across Spain (p = 0.003), as suggested by monophyletic clustering. For the largest monophyletic cluster (subepidemic) (N = 79), 49.4% of the clustered sequences originated from Madrid, while most sequences (51.9%) had been obtained from men having sex with men (MSM). Molecular clock analysis suggested that the origin (tMRCA) of the CRF02_AG subepidemic was in 2002 (median estimate; 95% Highest Posterior Density-HPD interval: 1999–2004). Additionally, we found significant clustering within the CRF02_AG subepidemic according to the ethnic origin.Conclusion: CRF02_AG has been introduced as a result of multiple introductions in Spain, following regional dispersal in several cases. We showed that CRF02_AG transmissions were mostly due to regional dispersal in Spain. The hot-spot for the largest CRF02_AG regional subepidemic in Spain was in Madrid associated with MSM transmission risk group. The existence of subepidemics suggest that several spillovers occurred from Madrid to other areas. CRF02_AG sequences from Hispanics were clustered in a separate subclade suggesting no linkage between the local and Hispanic subepidemics

Multinationals and foreign direct investment: main theoretical strands and empirical effects

Este artículo ofrece una síntesis y valoración de la literatura sobre empresas multinacionales y flujos de inversión extranjera directa, desde una perspectiva tanto teórica como empírica. En su parte teórica desgrana las principales corrientes cronológicamente; desde los análisis de competencia perfecta de los años 60, hasta contribuciones más recientes. En el plano empírico se centra en los controvertidos efectos de las empresas multinacionales y de los flujos de inversión extranjera directa en los países receptores, analizando su impacto sobre el comercio exterior, la productividad de las empresas nacionales, la estructura de mercado, los salarios y el crecimiento del PI

A CGE analysis of the impact of Foreign Direct Investment and tariff reform on female and male workers in Tanzania

This study analyzes the impact on female and male workers of tariff reform and the reduction of regulatory barriers faced by domestic and foreign firms operating in business services. It develops a data set that distinguishes labor by gender for 52 sectors and four skill categories. The model is the first to incorporate modern trade theory to assess its gender implications. The Dixit–Stiglitz framework results in productivity gains, which increase remunerations across all worker categories. However, this is less beneficial for women because the less skilled workers and the ones that are less involved in business services gain less

The role of Japanese FDI in China

We quantify the impacts of a sharp fall of Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI) to China that occurred after the worldwide financial crisis in 2009 using a three-region (Japan, China, and the rest of the world) recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model with multinational enterprises (MNEs). The FDI fall would reduce exports and production of Japanese MNE affiliates in China and depreciate the Renminbi. This latter effect would favor Chinese manufacturing, but China, would not be a gainer, because it would experience a contraction in its service sector, which would exceed the gains in manufacturing

No trans-pacific partnership? Good or bad for Mexico?

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is as follows: first, it aims to explain the overall economic implications of the trans-pacific partnership (TPP). Second, it aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the TPP’s quantitative impact on an upper-middle economy such as Mexico, as well as on the USA. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis is performed using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Findings: The results suggest that in the short run, both Mexico and the USA would slightly benefit from the TPP. Tariff reductions would lead to less bilateral trade between Mexico and the USA and the stronger integration of both countries with the rest of the TPP members. The opposite is true after a decrease in non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Overall, in terms of the impact on Mexico, trade integration with the rest of the TPP members prevails. This suggests that a TPP without the USA could still be beneficial. Originality/value: Previous studies on the TPP have mainly focused on its impact for the USA, which is also analysed in the present study. The effects of the TPP are estimated for a broad set of micro and macroeconomic variables, paying particular attention to the reductions of NTBs

Stopped TTIP? Its potential impact on the world and the role of neglected FDI

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) has been one of the most heavily debated issues in international economics over the last few years. We analyze its potential impact on the world, including both insiders and outsiders of the agreement, using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) under imperfect competition. In our simulation, TTIP consists of reductions of tariffs, non-tariff barriers and barriers to FDI. Our results show that the FDI component, which has often been neglected in previous studies, would contribute to nearly half of the overall impact of TTIP for the US and nearly one third for the EU. Insiders would heavily benefit from TTIP, whereas, it would be slightly negative for outsiders (Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and Other Advanced Countries), except for the big Asian economies (China, Japan and India), which would remain unaffected. The slightly negative effects would turn into positive with an “inclusive TTIP” (i.e., one avoiding third country discriminating rules and standards). An inclusive TTIP would benefit both insiders, who would gain more than with the standard TTIP, and outsiders, who would be better off than without the TTIP. Welfare, GDP, wages, as well as aggregate imports and exports of the world economy would clearly increase following either a modest or ambitious TTIP agreement. Our results suggest that policy makers should resume TTIP negotiations and try to strike an inclusive and ambitious deal.Real Colegio Complutense at Harvard UniversityCenter for International Development (CID) at the Harvard Kennedy SchoolReal Colegio ComplutenseSpanish Ministry of Economy and CompetitivenessDepto. de Estadística y Ciencia de los DatosFac. de Estudios EstadísticosTRUEpu