Breast cancer mortality in neighbouring European countries with different levels of screening but similar access to treatment: trend analysis of WHO mortality database

Objective To compare trends in breast cancer mortality within three pairs of neighbouring European countries in relation to implementation of screening

Modern mammography screening and breast cancer mortality: population study

Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of contemporary mammography screening using individual information about screening history and breast cancer mortality from public screening programmes. Design: Prospective cohort study of Norwegian women who were followed between 1986 and 2009. Within that period (1995-2005), a national mammography screening programme was gradually implemented, with biennial invitations sent to women aged 50-69 years. Participants: All Norwegian women aged 50-79 between 1986 and 2009. Main outcome measures Multiple Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate breast cancer mortality rate ratios comparing women who were invited to screening (intention to screen) with women who were not invited, with a clear distinction between cases of breast cancer diagnosed before (without potential for screening effect) and after (with potential for screening effect) the first invitation for screening. We took competing causes of death into account by censoring women from further follow-up who died from other causes. Based on the observed mortality reduction combined with the all cause and breast cancer specific mortality in Norway in 2009, we used the CISNET (Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network) Stanford simulation model to estimate how many women would need to be invited to biennial mammography screening in the age group 50-69 years to prevent one breast cancer death during their lifetime. Results: During 15 193 034 person years of observation (1986-2009), deaths from breast cancer occurred in 1175 women with a diagnosis after being invited to screening and 8996 women who had not been invited before diagnosis. After adjustment for age, birth cohort, county of residence, and national trends in deaths from breast cancer, the mortality rate ratio associated with being invited to mammography screening was 0.72 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.79). To prevent one death from breast cancer, 368 (95% confidence interval 266 to 508) women would need to be invited to screening. Conclusion: Invitation to modern mammography screening may reduce deaths from breast cancer by about 28%

Understanding recent trends in incidence of invasive breast cancer in Norway: age-period-cohort analysis based on registry data on mammography screening and hormone treatment use

Objective To quantify the separate contributions of menopausal hormone treatment and mammography screening activities on trends in incidence of invasive breast cancer between 1987 and 2008

Breast cancer tumor growth estimated through mammography screening data

Introduction Knowledge of tumor growth is important in the planning and evaluation of screening programs, clinical trials, and epidemiological studies. Studies of tumor growth rates in humans are usually based on small and selected samples. In the present study based on the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program, tumor growth was estimated from a large population using a new estimating procedure/model. Methods A likelihood-based estimating procedure was used, where both tumor growth and the screen test sensitivity were modeled as continuously increasing functions of tumor size. The method was applied to cancer incidence and tumor measurement data from 395,188 women aged 50 to 69 years. Results Tumor growth varied considerably between subjects, with 5% of tumors taking less than 1.2 months to grow from 10 mm to 20 mm in diameter, and another 5% taking more than 6.3 years. The mean time a tumor needed to grow from 10 mm to 20 mm in diameter was estimated as 1.7 years, increasing with age. The screen test sensitivity was estimated to increase sharply with tumor size, rising from 26% at 5 mm to 91% at 10 mm. Compared with previously used Markov models for tumor progression, the applied model gave considerably higher model fit (85% increased predictive power) and provided estimates directly linked to tumor size. Conclusion Screening data with tumor measurements can provide population-based estimates of tumor growth and screen test sensitivity directly linked to tumor size. There is a large variation in breast cancer tumor growth, with faster growth among younger women

Molecular subtypes, histopathological grade and survival in a historic cohort of breast cancer patients

Molecular subtyping of breast cancer may provide additional prognostic information regarding patient outcome. However, its clinical significance remains to be established. In this study, the main aims were to discover whether reclassification of breast cancer into molecular subtypes provides more precise information regarding outcome compared to conventional histopathological grading and to study breast cancer-specific survival in the different molecular subtypes. Cases of breast cancer occurring in a cohort of women born between 1886 and 1928 with long-term follow-up were included in the study. Tissue microarrays were constructed from archival formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue from 909 cases. Using immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridisation as surrogates for gene expression analyses, all cases were reclassified into the following molecular subtypes: Luminal A; Luminal B (HER2−); Luminal B (HER2+); HER2 subtype; Basal phenotype; and five negative phenotype. Kaplan–Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models were used in the analyses. During the first 5 years after diagnosis, there were significant differences in prognosis according to molecular subtypes with the best survival for the Luminal A subtype and the worst for HER2 and five negative phenotype. In this historic cohort of women with breast cancer, differences in breast cancer-specific survival according to subtype occur almost exclusively amongst the histopathological grade 2 tumours. From 5 years after time of diagnosis until the end of follow-up, there appears to be no difference in survival according to molecular subtype or histopathological grade.publishedVersio

Molecular Subtypes of Breast Cancer: Long-term Incidence Trends and Prognostic Differences

Background: Secular trends in incidence and prognosis of molecular breast cancer subtypes are poorly described. We studied long-term trends in a population of Norwegian women born 1886–1977. Methods: A total of 52,949 women were followed for breast cancer incidence, and 1,423 tumors were reclassified into molecular subtypes using IHC and in situ hybridization. We compared incidence rates among women born 1886–1928 and 1929–1977, estimated age-specific incidence rate ratios (IRR), and performed multiple imputations to account for unknown subtype. Prognosis was compared for women diagnosed before 1995 and in 1995 or later, estimating cumulative risk of death and HRs. Results: Between 50 and 69 years of age, incidence rates of Luminal A and Luminal B (HER2−) were higher among women born in 1929 or later, compared with before 1929 [IRRs 50–54 years; after imputations: 3.5; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8–6.9 and 2.5; 95% CI, 1.2–5.2, respectively], with no clear differences for other subtypes. Rates of death were lower in women diagnosed in 1995 or later, compared to before 1995, for Luminal A (HR 0.4; 95% CI, 0.3–0.5), Luminal B (HER2−; HR 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3–0.7), and Basal phenotype (HR 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2–0.9). Conclusions: We found a strong secular incidence increase restricted to Luminal A and Luminal B (HER2−) subtypes, combined with a markedly improved prognosis for these subtypes and for the Basal phenotype.acceptedVersio

Birth length and weight as predictors of breast cancer prognosis

Background Birth size, and particularly birth length, is positively associated with breast cancer risk in adulthood. The objective of this study was to examine whether birth size is associated with survival among breast cancer patients. Methods Information on birth size (weight, length and ponderal index (kg/length (m3)) was collected from birth archives for 331 breast cancer patients who were diagnosed at two university hospitals in Norway (Bergen and Trondheim). The patients were followed from the time of diagnosis until death from breast cancer, death from another cause, or to the end of follow-up, and birth size was related to survival, using Cox regression analysis. Results Breast cancer patients with birth length ≥ 52 cm had nearly twice the risk of dying (hazard ratio, 1.92, 95% confidence interval, 1.09-3.41) from breast cancer compared to women with birth length less than 48 cm, after adjustment for place of birth and year of diagnosis. Similar analyses related to birth weight and ponderal index showed no clear association with breast cancer survival. Conclusions Poorer outcome of breast cancer patients with high birth length may reflect effects of factors that stimulate longitudinal growth and simultaneously increase the risk of metastases and fatal outcome. It is possible that the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) system is involved in the underlying mechanisms

Life Course Trajectories of Maternal Cardiovascular Risk Factors according to Offspring Birthweight:The HUNT Study

Women with small or large for gestational age offspring are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease later in life. How their cardiovascular risk factors develop across the life course is incompletely known. We linked data from the population-based HUNT Study (1984–2008) and the Medical Birth Registry of Norway (1967–2012) for 22,487 women. Mixed effect models were used to compare cardiovascular risk factor trajectories for women according to first offspring birthweight for gestational age. Women with small for gestational age (SGA) offspring had 1–2 mmHg higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure across the life course, but lower measures of adiposity, compared to women with offspring who were appropriate for gestational age (AGA). In contrast, women with large for gestational age (LGA) offspring had higher measures of adiposity, ~0.1 mmol/l higher non-HDL cholesterol and triglycerides and 0.2 mmol/l higher non-fasting glucose, compared with mothers of AGA offspring. These differences were broadly stable from prior to first pregnancy until 60 years of age. Our findings point to different cardiovascular risk profiles in mothers of SGA versus LGA offspring, where giving birth to SGA offspring might primarily reflect adverse maternal vascular health whereas LGA offspring might reflect the mother’s metabolic health

Pre-eclampsia, Soluble fms-like Tyrosine Kinase 1, and the Risk of Reduced Thyroid Function: Nested Case-Control and Population Based Study

Objective: To determine if pre-eclampsia is associated with reduced thyroid function during and after pregnancy. Design: Nested case-control study during pregnancy and population based follow-up study after pregnancy. Setting: Calcium for Pre-eclampsia Prevention trial of healthy pregnant nulliparous women in the United States during 1992-5, and a Norwegian population based study (Nord-Trondelag Health Study or HUNT-2) during 1995-7 with linkage to the medical birth registry of Norway. Participants: All 141 women (cases) in the Calcium for Pre-eclampsia Prevention trial with serum measurements before 21 weeks’ gestation (baseline) and after onset of pre-eclampsia (before delivery), 141 normotensive controls with serum measurements at similar gestational ages, and 7121 women in the Nord-Trondelag Health Study whose first birth had occurred in 1967 or later and in whom serum levels of thyroid stimulating hormone had been subsequently measured. Main outcome measures: Thyroid function tests and human chorionic gonadotrophin and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 concentrations in the Calcium for Pre-eclampsia Prevention cohort and odds ratios for levels of thyroid stimulating hormone above the reference range, according to pre-eclampsia status in singleton pregnancies before the Nord-Trondelag Health Study. Results: In predelivery specimens of the Calcium for Pre-eclampsia Prevention cohort after the onset of pre-eclampsia, thyroid stimulating hormone levels increased 2.42 times above baseline compared with a 1.48 times increase in controls. The ratio of the predelivery to baseline ratio of cases to that of the controls was 1.64 (95% confidence interval 1.29 to 2.08). Free triiodothyronine decreased more in the women with pre-eclampsia than in the controls (case ratio to control ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.92 to 0.99). The predelivery specimens but not baseline samples from women with pre-eclampsia were significantly more likely than those from controls to have concentrations of thyroid stimulating hormone above the reference range (adjusted odds ratio 2.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 4.4). Both in women who developed pre-eclampsia and in normotensive controls the increase in thyroid stimulating hormone concentration between baseline and predelivery specimens was strongly associated with increasing quarters of predelivery soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (P for trend 0.002 and 3.5 mIU/l). In particular, they were more likely to have high concentrations of thyroid stimulating hormone without thyroid peroxidase antibodies (adjusted odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 5.0), suggesting hypothyroid function in the absence of an autoimmune process. This association was especially strong (5.8, 1.3 to 25.5) if pre-eclampsia had occurred in both the first and the second pregnancies. Conclusion: Increased serum concentration of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 during pre-eclampsia is associated with subclinical hypothyroidism during pregnancy. Pre-eclampsia may also predispose to reduced thyroid function in later years

Hypertension in Pregnancy and Offspring Cardiovascular Risk in Young Adulthood:Prospective and Sibling Studies in the HUNT Study (Nord-Trøndelag Health Study) in Norway

Women with hypertensive disorders in pregnancy are at increased lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease. We examined the offspring’s cardiovascular risk profile in young adulthood and their siblings’ cardiovascular risk profile. From the HUNT study (Nord-Trøndelag Health Study) in Norway, 15 778 participants (mean age: 29 years), including 210 sibling groups, were linked to information from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. Blood pressure, anthropometry, serum lipids, and C-reactive protein were assessed. Seven hundred and six participants were born after exposure to maternal hypertension in pregnancy: 336 mothers had gestational hypertension, 343 had term preeclampsia, and 27 had preterm preeclampsia. Offspring whose mothers had hypertension in pregnancy had 2.7 (95% confidence interval, 1.8–3.5) mm Hg higher systolic blood pressure, 1.5 (0.9–2.1) mm Hg higher diastolic blood pressure, 0.66 (0.31–1.01) kg/m2 higher body mass index, and 1.49 (0.65–2.33) cm wider waist circumference, compared with offspring of normotensive pregnancies. Similar differences were observed for gestational hypertension and term preeclampsia. Term preeclampsia was also associated with higher concentrations of non–high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (0.14 mmol/L, 0.03–0.25) and triglycerides (0.13 mmol/L, 0.06–0.21). Siblings born after a normotensive pregnancy had nearly identical risk factor levels as siblings born after maternal hypertension. Offspring born after maternal hypertension in pregnancy have a more adverse cardiovascular risk profile in young adulthood than offspring of normotensive pregnancies. Their siblings, born after a normotensive pregnancy, have a similar risk profile, suggesting that shared genes or lifestyle may account for the association, rather than an intrauterine effect. All children of mothers who have experienced hypertension in pregnancy may be at increased lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease